Kemi Badenoch has had quite the week. After losing Robert Jenrick – and Andrew Rosindell too, though that particular defection was quietly slipped out on a Sunday night without fanfare – to Reform UK, the Conservative leader has spent much of the past seven days shoring up what remains of her parliamentary party.
From a Monday evening address to MPs on the party’s right, to a full turnout of her 116 MPs at the 1922 Committee on Wednesday night – with a series of one-to-one conversations with those on the whips’ watchlist in between – it has been a relentless round of reassurance and repair.
So far, so good. She has been well received by members of both camps. “Kemi came across as boil lanced,” was one verdict from the right. “She did a fantastic job,” said others who attended the 1922, where Badenoch struck an optimistic tone:
“There is a lot to fix in this country. A lot of stuff isn’t working, a lot is broken, but the whole country isn’t broken beyond repair.
“We need to show hope, aspiration and that we can fix problems – we are brave enough to take tough decisions, and we are competent enough to deliver. Where Reform are negative about our country, we will be fuelled by positivity.”
She undoubtedly handled the bad hand Jenrick dealt her with dexterity, moving swiftly to sack him once his defection plotting became clear. And at this week’s shadow cabinet the Tory Leader was credited by her colleagues for “showing true leadership” – ConHome understands the Chief Whip Rebecca Harris also thanked Badenoch for letting her make the phone call sacking Jenrick.
But this is no moment for complacency. Hence Badenoch’s continued private conversations with figures thought to be tempted by Reform, including Sir John Hayes – who provided ConHome with a highly open to interpretation comment “my life long battle for authentic, unabridged conservatism continues” – and Esther McVey. The danger has so far been contained, not cured.
Still, there is at least some cheer from ConservativeHome to steady the leader’s nerves. A bit of that positivity that she has been looking for.
In our latest shadow cabinet league table – conducted earlier this month, before Jenrick’s defection – Badenoch finally surged into first place, posting a strong +74.4. In the previous survey she languished in third. The last time she topped the table was back in December 2024.
Jenrick, until recently the party’s golden boy when it comes to ConHome surveys, was close behind on +69.7 – just 4.7 points adrift – though notably this saw him fall from the top spot he had dominated in every survey since February 2025. That Badenoch had already overtaken him before his departure will be quietly savoured in LOTO.
It also puts a dent in Jenrick’s own defection bravado. In announcing his move, the former shadow justice secretary was prepped to boast about how he was “top of the brilliant ConservativeHome shadow cabinet league table”. As it happens, it turns out that while votes were being gathered before his move to Reform, they were showing otherwise. The Tory leader had beaten him to it just before his defection.
Shadow chancellor Mel Stride, who Jenrick went on to directly criticise in his defection speech, saying he “oversaw the explosion of the welfare bill”, comes next on +64.5. He is followed by a familiar cluster of senior figures all ranking highly: shadow home secretary Chris Philp, shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith, shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho and shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge.
At the other end of the table, shadow transport secretary Richard Holden – recently ejected from PMQs by Speaker Lindsay Hoyle for excessive heckling, though ConHome hears the Chief Whip rewarded him with a bottle of prosecco – finally scrapes out of negative territory, rising to +1.8. Shadow science secretary Julia Lopez also escapes the pink. Only shadow health secretary Stuart Andrew remains underwater on -0.6, though even that shows a significant improvement on May, when ten members of the shadow cabinet languished in minus figures.
For Badenoch, the numbers offer a welcome morale boost. But the politics remains unforgiving. As she admitted herself at the 1922 committee: “We are not yet out of the woods, but we can see the path.”