Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
The Middle East is on fire again.
The United States has launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, identifying Tehran’s programme as an imminent threat to its security. Since then, the missiles and drones have been flying in all directions – from Israel’s and American assets into Iran, and in retaliation from Iran towards Israel and US-aligned Gulf states. In just seven days, the war has claimed thousands of lives in Iran and across the region. Lebanon too has suffered casualties, after Israel retaliated against Hezbollah – the Iran-backed militia group – following the group’s attack on the country on Sunday.
At the same time, Lebanon’s leadership has moved swiftly to curb Hezbollah’s independent military and security operations, accusing the group of dragging the country into a conflict it cannot afford. Hezbollah’s political arm, however, remains an active and influential part of Lebanon’s governing system.
The situation in Lebanon is turbulent and violent, and yet there is still a genuine hope for change. That hope came evident when I was in Beirut two weeks ago on a mission as Honorary Chairman of the International Democracy Union, visiting one of our member parties – the Kataeb Party – and meeting leading figures in Lebanese politics and society.
Hope surfaced in many conversations, most palpably around economy. Lebanon has been emerging from an unprecedented financial collapse that began in 2019, culminating in a sovereign default and the near-total breakdown of its banking sector. Since then, the Lebanese pound has lost most of its value, and banks have effectively ceased normal operations, squeezing liquidity and trapping depositors’ savings for more than six years. There is cautious optimism that reform is now inevitable. The government advanced a draft ‘financial gap law’ that aims to distribute losses fairly and provide mechanisms for depositors to reclaim their savings over time. But this process will be painful – many Lebanese have already seen their life savings evaporate. Meaningful International Monetary Fund engagement will also require a structural reform, including down-sizing public sector and enhancing financial transparency.
I saw hope with many Lebanese expats returning to their homeland to serve in rebuilding their country anew. I met with at least three accomplished individuals – leaders in business, academia and public service – who have sacrificed comfort abroad to contribute to Lebanon’s renewal. Their belief in the country’s future was humbling.
There was also hope that with Hezbollah’s recent decapitation and significant weakening by the Israeli forces, there could be a chance to minimise their influence on the political system. Much of this hope relied on the United States intervening in Iran, as it has done so in the last several days.
Lebanon’s sectarian political system is as intricate as is its society. Having been at the crossroads of civilisations, Lebanon has developed into a beautiful tapestry of intertwining cultures, religions and influences. Accurate demographic data is hard to come by, as Lebanon has not conducted an official census since 1932. Today, estimates suggest roughly 32–34 per cent Christian, 31–32 per cent Sunni, 31–32 per cent Shia, with Druze and other minorities making up the remainder.
Yet, this diversity also creates an equal challenge of finding consensus. For the longest time, the design of its political system was responding to the necessity of equal representation. Being a parliamentary republic – when the legislative branch decides on the Prime Minister, the government and the President, the powers were thought to be split equally. The Presidential post was allocated to Christians, the Speaker of the Parliament was to be a Shia Muslim, the Prime Minister – a Sunni. The political factions themselves also have their own representation, currently having six Christian and four Muslim parties holding mandates in the parliament. A classic in Western understanding majority in the Parliament does not exist – the voting – as many things in Lebanon – is situational and negotiable. Like, the election of the new President last year – the former chief of the army General Joseph Aoun was voted in with the support of both Christians and Muslims, including the Hezbollah faction.
The question of Hezbollah’s future looms large.
The group’s routes lie in the marginalisation of parts of the Shia community during the civil war era, yet many Lebanese now see it less as a protector and more as a liability. Those I spoke to genuinely believe that competitive elections could diminish Hezbollah’s parliamentary influence. At the same time, we must understand that radical political movements are merely a representation of the deep socio-economic problems that exist within the society. Simply getting rid of symptoms will not cure an illness. Lebanon has to work with marginalised communities and address the underlying inequities to minimise the risk of their further radicalisation and creation of a new ‘Hezbollah’ over time. At the same time, some of the political leaders were very forthright with me: unless Tehran’s influence and by extension Iran’s support for Hezbollah is substantially curtailed – including through an external intervention -the group could rearm within two to three years. In this case, deradicalizing Lebanon must be both internal and external effort.
The newly elected leadership – after years of vacuum – faces a monumental task. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have moved quickly to form a government and articulate a reform agenda, but building state capacity will require more than rhetoric. The Lebanese Armed Forces, underpaid and under-equipped, need revitalisation. Improving soldiers’ remuneration and restoring professionalism are prerequisites to restoring a monopoly on legitimate force.
Disarming Hezbollah will take a strong and competent army. Lebanon has relied heavily on international peacekeeping in the south. With the UN mission winding down, political leaders deliberate alternatives for security cooperation. Historically, France has been a close partner. Yet many Lebanese lament that French support often falls short of its declarations. Today, there is a greater expectation placed on Germany, Italy and the United States, while the United Kingdom’s presence feels diminished and almost irrelevant.
Security and prosperity will also hinge on Lebanon’s relationship with Israel. Formal recognition of Israel remains deeply contested in Lebanon’s fractured society, yet many see reducing Iran-backed influence as the first prerequisite to any meaningful rapprochement.
Beyond geopolitics, Lebanon needs robust internal reforms – the ones that will worsen conditions before they improve. Parliamentary elections planned for Spring may now be delayed, but they are essential. A government with a renewed democratic mandate will need to confront hard truths about economic collapse and institutional failure.
The last time I visited Lebanon was in 2005 – just as the explosion that killed former Prime Minister Farik Hariri rocked the Bay of St. George. Since then, Lebanon has weathered years of upheaval – economic collapse, political stalemate and intermittent conflicts. Today, the turbulence continues with fresh conflict erupting anew.
And yet, despite the destruction and the uncertainty of war, in Beirut hope still prevails. Hope that the beautiful jewel of the Middle East – with its unique mosaic of cultures, religions and ambitions – can rise again, harnessing innovation and the best of its people to secure a future of stability and prosperity.
Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
The Middle East is on fire again.
The United States has launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, identifying Tehran’s programme as an imminent threat to its security. Since then, the missiles and drones have been flying in all directions – from Israel’s and American assets into Iran, and in retaliation from Iran towards Israel and US-aligned Gulf states. In just seven days, the war has claimed thousands of lives in Iran and across the region. Lebanon too has suffered casualties, after Israel retaliated against Hezbollah – the Iran-backed militia group – following the group’s attack on the country on Sunday.
At the same time, Lebanon’s leadership has moved swiftly to curb Hezbollah’s independent military and security operations, accusing the group of dragging the country into a conflict it cannot afford. Hezbollah’s political arm, however, remains an active and influential part of Lebanon’s governing system.
The situation in Lebanon is turbulent and violent, and yet there is still a genuine hope for change. That hope came evident when I was in Beirut two weeks ago on a mission as Honorary Chairman of the International Democracy Union, visiting one of our member parties – the Kataeb Party – and meeting leading figures in Lebanese politics and society.
Hope surfaced in many conversations, most palpably around economy. Lebanon has been emerging from an unprecedented financial collapse that began in 2019, culminating in a sovereign default and the near-total breakdown of its banking sector. Since then, the Lebanese pound has lost most of its value, and banks have effectively ceased normal operations, squeezing liquidity and trapping depositors’ savings for more than six years. There is cautious optimism that reform is now inevitable. The government advanced a draft ‘financial gap law’ that aims to distribute losses fairly and provide mechanisms for depositors to reclaim their savings over time. But this process will be painful – many Lebanese have already seen their life savings evaporate. Meaningful International Monetary Fund engagement will also require a structural reform, including down-sizing public sector and enhancing financial transparency.
I saw hope with many Lebanese expats returning to their homeland to serve in rebuilding their country anew. I met with at least three accomplished individuals – leaders in business, academia and public service – who have sacrificed comfort abroad to contribute to Lebanon’s renewal. Their belief in the country’s future was humbling.
There was also hope that with Hezbollah’s recent decapitation and significant weakening by the Israeli forces, there could be a chance to minimise their influence on the political system. Much of this hope relied on the United States intervening in Iran, as it has done so in the last several days.
Lebanon’s sectarian political system is as intricate as is its society. Having been at the crossroads of civilisations, Lebanon has developed into a beautiful tapestry of intertwining cultures, religions and influences. Accurate demographic data is hard to come by, as Lebanon has not conducted an official census since 1932. Today, estimates suggest roughly 32–34 per cent Christian, 31–32 per cent Sunni, 31–32 per cent Shia, with Druze and other minorities making up the remainder.
Yet, this diversity also creates an equal challenge of finding consensus. For the longest time, the design of its political system was responding to the necessity of equal representation. Being a parliamentary republic – when the legislative branch decides on the Prime Minister, the government and the President, the powers were thought to be split equally. The Presidential post was allocated to Christians, the Speaker of the Parliament was to be a Shia Muslim, the Prime Minister – a Sunni. The political factions themselves also have their own representation, currently having six Christian and four Muslim parties holding mandates in the parliament. A classic in Western understanding majority in the Parliament does not exist – the voting – as many things in Lebanon – is situational and negotiable. Like, the election of the new President last year – the former chief of the army General Joseph Aoun was voted in with the support of both Christians and Muslims, including the Hezbollah faction.
The question of Hezbollah’s future looms large.
The group’s routes lie in the marginalisation of parts of the Shia community during the civil war era, yet many Lebanese now see it less as a protector and more as a liability. Those I spoke to genuinely believe that competitive elections could diminish Hezbollah’s parliamentary influence. At the same time, we must understand that radical political movements are merely a representation of the deep socio-economic problems that exist within the society. Simply getting rid of symptoms will not cure an illness. Lebanon has to work with marginalised communities and address the underlying inequities to minimise the risk of their further radicalisation and creation of a new ‘Hezbollah’ over time. At the same time, some of the political leaders were very forthright with me: unless Tehran’s influence and by extension Iran’s support for Hezbollah is substantially curtailed – including through an external intervention -the group could rearm within two to three years. In this case, deradicalizing Lebanon must be both internal and external effort.
The newly elected leadership – after years of vacuum – faces a monumental task. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have moved quickly to form a government and articulate a reform agenda, but building state capacity will require more than rhetoric. The Lebanese Armed Forces, underpaid and under-equipped, need revitalisation. Improving soldiers’ remuneration and restoring professionalism are prerequisites to restoring a monopoly on legitimate force.
Disarming Hezbollah will take a strong and competent army. Lebanon has relied heavily on international peacekeeping in the south. With the UN mission winding down, political leaders deliberate alternatives for security cooperation. Historically, France has been a close partner. Yet many Lebanese lament that French support often falls short of its declarations. Today, there is a greater expectation placed on Germany, Italy and the United States, while the United Kingdom’s presence feels diminished and almost irrelevant.
Security and prosperity will also hinge on Lebanon’s relationship with Israel. Formal recognition of Israel remains deeply contested in Lebanon’s fractured society, yet many see reducing Iran-backed influence as the first prerequisite to any meaningful rapprochement.
Beyond geopolitics, Lebanon needs robust internal reforms – the ones that will worsen conditions before they improve. Parliamentary elections planned for Spring may now be delayed, but they are essential. A government with a renewed democratic mandate will need to confront hard truths about economic collapse and institutional failure.
The last time I visited Lebanon was in 2005 – just as the explosion that killed former Prime Minister Farik Hariri rocked the Bay of St. George. Since then, Lebanon has weathered years of upheaval – economic collapse, political stalemate and intermittent conflicts. Today, the turbulence continues with fresh conflict erupting anew.
And yet, despite the destruction and the uncertainty of war, in Beirut hope still prevails. Hope that the beautiful jewel of the Middle East – with its unique mosaic of cultures, religions and ambitions – can rise again, harnessing innovation and the best of its people to secure a future of stability and prosperity.