My last round of focus groups before the May elections took place in Leeds, where we heard from former Tories who had switched to Labour or Reform, and longer-standing Labour voters considering their options; and Bridgend, where Welsh Labour voters pondered the Senedd elections.
A general election is still years away but if the landscape then resembles the current state of play, one key question will be which putative governing coalition is least chaotic – and this Centrist group of voters may hold the answer.
My latest poll looks at the Iran crisis, including Britain’s role and Keir Starmer’s handling of it, whether and how the state should subsidise energy , Shabana Mahmood’s changes to indefinite leave to remain, the North Sea, support for Green policies, and Zack Polanski’s past.
With Holyrood elections just over six weeks away, my latest polling looks at Scottish public opinion towards the SNP government’s record, the parties and leaders, the independence debate, and the issues that will shape the outcome in May
My latest focus groups took place in the North-East, where we heard from regular Labour voters in Newcastle East and Wallsend who might be tempted elsewhere, and from people in Bishop Auckland who switched from the Conservatives to Labour at the last election.
In my latest round of Scottish research, even some previously loyal SNP voters were starting to wonder if their party’s record over 19 years – let alone the last five – wasn’t beginning to look a bit thin.
We’ve been asking, what is the state of the left-of-centre voting coalition under the biggest Labour majority for nearly 30 years? With Reform ahead in the polls, can the left mobilise to keep the right out of office? It might be trickier than some imagine.
The question of Hezbollah’s future looms large. Many Lebanese now see it less as a protector and more as a liability. Those I spoke to genuinely believe that competitive elections could diminish Hezbollah’s parliamentary influence.
My latest polling looks at preferred coalitions, tactical voting, which parties have momentum, whether Reform UK are like the Conservatives , whether Keir Starmer should resign, and which Labour leadership contender would make the best PM.
Last month in Birmingham we conducted focus groups among people who will play a decisive part in the next election in constituencies around the country, as they did in the Gorton and Denton by-election: Muslim voters who backed Labour in 2024.
The groups talked about Reform’s new shadow cabinet, local elections, social media, the fallout from the Mandelson saga, prospects for the Tories and what constitutes Peak Starmer?
In Gorton and Denton we heard how people felt about Andy Burnham, Keir Starmer, and Labour overall. Voters seemed to anticipate a Reform win, though some would rather choose the Greens.
In my focus groups, voters often say they find her background and her blunt approach a refreshing change. But not everyone is convinced. A Rayner premiership could galvanise voters on both sides.
Polling shows the right’s combined vote share to be enough to oust Labour and install a Tory-Reform administration. But even if the personalities could agree and the politics navigated would this hypothetical alliance be as big as the sum of its parts?
Some have accused me of artificially inflating the Tories’ in my surveys. I’m not, as what would be the point of producing polls suggesting your party is doing better than it really is? It was to counter such “comfort polling” that I got into the business in the first place.