My latest focus groups took place in the North-East, where we heard from regular Labour voters in Newcastle East and Wallsend who might be tempted elsewhere, and from people in Bishop Auckland who switched from the Conservatives to Labour at the last election.
In my latest round of Scottish research, even some previously loyal SNP voters were starting to wonder if their party’s record over 19 years – let alone the last five – wasn’t beginning to look a bit thin.
We’ve been asking, what is the state of the left-of-centre voting coalition under the biggest Labour majority for nearly 30 years? With Reform ahead in the polls, can the left mobilise to keep the right out of office? It might be trickier than some imagine.
The question of Hezbollah’s future looms large. Many Lebanese now see it less as a protector and more as a liability. Those I spoke to genuinely believe that competitive elections could diminish Hezbollah’s parliamentary influence.
My latest polling looks at preferred coalitions, tactical voting, which parties have momentum, whether Reform UK are like the Conservatives , whether Keir Starmer should resign, and which Labour leadership contender would make the best PM.
Last month in Birmingham we conducted focus groups among people who will play a decisive part in the next election in constituencies around the country, as they did in the Gorton and Denton by-election: Muslim voters who backed Labour in 2024.
The groups talked about Reform’s new shadow cabinet, local elections, social media, the fallout from the Mandelson saga, prospects for the Tories and what constitutes Peak Starmer?
In Gorton and Denton we heard how people felt about Andy Burnham, Keir Starmer, and Labour overall. Voters seemed to anticipate a Reform win, though some would rather choose the Greens.
In my focus groups, voters often say they find her background and her blunt approach a refreshing change. But not everyone is convinced. A Rayner premiership could galvanise voters on both sides.
Polling shows the right’s combined vote share to be enough to oust Labour and install a Tory-Reform administration. But even if the personalities could agree and the politics navigated would this hypothetical alliance be as big as the sum of its parts?
We also ask how people would describe the party leaders and which parties they would want to see in coalition in the event of a hung parliament.
Tory voters in Watford told us there views on the recent defections from the Tories to Reform UK: “She’s spring cleaning”, “I just think he’s really bitter”, “If they believed in it, maybe they’d stick around”:
My latest focus groups took place in two constituencies in the west country: North East Somerset and Hanham, where we heard from 2024 Conservative switchers to Labour and Reform, and Taunton, where we spoke to Tories who went to the Liberal Democrats.
Brits in their twenties and thirties will increasingly contribute elsewhere for the next 30 to 40 years. They will instead build wealth for other countries, raising their families out of the UK.
With Holyrood elections just over six weeks away, my latest polling looks at Scottish public opinion towards the SNP government’s record, the parties and leaders, the independence debate, and the issues that will shape the outcome in May