William Duckworth is a Chartered Accountant working in finance and a Conservative activist.
As we come towards the May 7th elections, the eyes of the country dart across this green and pleasant land, speculating what results they are likely to produce and what that means for our politics.
The headlines are likely to be of a Labour collapse across the country. They are projected to haemorrhage hundreds of local councillors and fail to take control of Holyrood. The Tories are unlikely to do much better, but our losses may be concealed by gains in more affluent parts of London and the probable eclipse that a post-election government meltdown will provide. Reform and the Greens are likely to be the big winners of the night, with the Lib Dems making gains as well, and the nationalist parties will perform strongly in their respective regions.
All of these elections matter, for the local communities represented and for the country as a whole. But there is one election that towers above all like a colossus in its significance.
If Labour were to lose control of the Senedd, it would demonstrate a catastrophic shift in the political landscape, and almost certainly bring about the end of Keir Starmer’s premiership.
Wales is the true Labour heartland. Keir Hardie himself represented Merthyr Tydfil from 1900 to 1915. Welsh Labour boast of having the longest winning streak of any political party, holding the most parliamentary seats there since 1922. They have been the largest party in the Senedd since its inception in 1999.
Based on current polling, Labour are likely to finish third behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and if they do, there will be nowhere for them to hide the scale of their defeat and humiliation.
Surely the same can be said about Scotland? Another Labour heartland? And what about council elections in Bradford, Birmingham and Barnsley? Surely a bad result there would be equally as damaging?
As I’ve said, these elections are important as well. But unlike in Wales, there is ambiguity in the results.
In the local elections, there will be such a confused morass of results and information that Labour will be able to weave a story that softens the blow. Party officials are already briefing the press on how bad the results are likely to be, and if they outperform expectations, even slightly, they will sell that as a win.
Whilst defeat in Scotland will be bad, Labour are currently the third party in the Scottish Parliament, and so taking control can be dismissed as a bridge too far this time round, something to build towards in 2030. Anas Sarwar’s call for Starmer to resign has also created clear blue water between the two, meaning Labour nationally will be less directly tarnished by a poor result there.
In short, there is a level of ambiguity to the Scottish and local English components of this election which can conceal the true extent of defeat.
Wales is different.
As Labour are in power, and have always been in power, if they lose power in Wales, there will be nowhere for them to hide.
Voters moving to Plaid Cymru will represent disenchantment with Labour itself. Still a party of the left, Plaid offers a more exciting, untested version of Labour, and the rise of the charismatic Rhun ap Iorwerth would provide a refreshing contrast to Starmer’s increasingly stodgy stewardship.
A Reform insurgency would horrify Labour supporters. A populist swing towards Farage style politics would represent a realignment of working-class values and supoport from which Labour would struggle to recover.
Ultimately, this impending collapse in Wales would be the fault of the Prime Minister. From the dizzying heights of the 2024 election, Labour’s position has tumbled, shaped by drift, lack of agility, and increasingly, a sense of dishonesty and sleaze. It is regrettable that local representatives so often pay the price for the failings of national politicians, but that is the reality of modern politics.
On May 8th, if the polls are right, the extent of Labour’s failure in Wales will be unambiguous and terminal. No amount of spin or preemptive briefing will obscure the simple fact that Labour has lost control of the Senedd, and that the seemingly invincible force of Welsh Labour has crumbled.
If it is not inevitable already, that would surely bring about the prompt end of Starmer’s premiership.
I am not Welsh, and as a Conservative I am aware that my own party is likely to have a difficult night there. If there are voters in Wales reading this, I am not going to lobby you to vote Conservative, although I hope you will consider us. But I would ask you to recognise the weight your vote carries on May 7th. Heavier, perhaps, than anywhere else in the country.
And if you too have come to the conclusion that Keir Starmer is not fit to be Prime Minister, I would encourage you to think long and hard before giving your vote to Labour once again.
William Duckworth is a Chartered Accountant working in finance and a Conservative activist.
As we come towards the May 7th elections, the eyes of the country dart across this green and pleasant land, speculating what results they are likely to produce and what that means for our politics.
The headlines are likely to be of a Labour collapse across the country. They are projected to haemorrhage hundreds of local councillors and fail to take control of Holyrood. The Tories are unlikely to do much better, but our losses may be concealed by gains in more affluent parts of London and the probable eclipse that a post-election government meltdown will provide. Reform and the Greens are likely to be the big winners of the night, with the Lib Dems making gains as well, and the nationalist parties will perform strongly in their respective regions.
All of these elections matter, for the local communities represented and for the country as a whole. But there is one election that towers above all like a colossus in its significance.
If Labour were to lose control of the Senedd, it would demonstrate a catastrophic shift in the political landscape, and almost certainly bring about the end of Keir Starmer’s premiership.
Wales is the true Labour heartland. Keir Hardie himself represented Merthyr Tydfil from 1900 to 1915. Welsh Labour boast of having the longest winning streak of any political party, holding the most parliamentary seats there since 1922. They have been the largest party in the Senedd since its inception in 1999.
Based on current polling, Labour are likely to finish third behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and if they do, there will be nowhere for them to hide the scale of their defeat and humiliation.
Surely the same can be said about Scotland? Another Labour heartland? And what about council elections in Bradford, Birmingham and Barnsley? Surely a bad result there would be equally as damaging?
As I’ve said, these elections are important as well. But unlike in Wales, there is ambiguity in the results.
In the local elections, there will be such a confused morass of results and information that Labour will be able to weave a story that softens the blow. Party officials are already briefing the press on how bad the results are likely to be, and if they outperform expectations, even slightly, they will sell that as a win.
Whilst defeat in Scotland will be bad, Labour are currently the third party in the Scottish Parliament, and so taking control can be dismissed as a bridge too far this time round, something to build towards in 2030. Anas Sarwar’s call for Starmer to resign has also created clear blue water between the two, meaning Labour nationally will be less directly tarnished by a poor result there.
In short, there is a level of ambiguity to the Scottish and local English components of this election which can conceal the true extent of defeat.
Wales is different.
As Labour are in power, and have always been in power, if they lose power in Wales, there will be nowhere for them to hide.
Voters moving to Plaid Cymru will represent disenchantment with Labour itself. Still a party of the left, Plaid offers a more exciting, untested version of Labour, and the rise of the charismatic Rhun ap Iorwerth would provide a refreshing contrast to Starmer’s increasingly stodgy stewardship.
A Reform insurgency would horrify Labour supporters. A populist swing towards Farage style politics would represent a realignment of working-class values and supoport from which Labour would struggle to recover.
Ultimately, this impending collapse in Wales would be the fault of the Prime Minister. From the dizzying heights of the 2024 election, Labour’s position has tumbled, shaped by drift, lack of agility, and increasingly, a sense of dishonesty and sleaze. It is regrettable that local representatives so often pay the price for the failings of national politicians, but that is the reality of modern politics.
On May 8th, if the polls are right, the extent of Labour’s failure in Wales will be unambiguous and terminal. No amount of spin or preemptive briefing will obscure the simple fact that Labour has lost control of the Senedd, and that the seemingly invincible force of Welsh Labour has crumbled.
If it is not inevitable already, that would surely bring about the prompt end of Starmer’s premiership.
I am not Welsh, and as a Conservative I am aware that my own party is likely to have a difficult night there. If there are voters in Wales reading this, I am not going to lobby you to vote Conservative, although I hope you will consider us. But I would ask you to recognise the weight your vote carries on May 7th. Heavier, perhaps, than anywhere else in the country.
And if you too have come to the conclusion that Keir Starmer is not fit to be Prime Minister, I would encourage you to think long and hard before giving your vote to Labour once again.