“He’s running”, “She’s running” or sometimes just “Running”
It’s the go-to social media quip these day the moment an ambitious politician pops their head above the parapet and provides a seemingly random personal profile or opinion in the midst of speculation about the leadership of a party.
Oh and there is speculation about the leadership of a party right now, and mercifully a year on it’s not the Conservatives.
Labour’s Al Carns the strapping ex-Royal Marine MP posted a ‘selfie’ with backpack, visibly in Westminster looking as if he might have been literally running, and he got the quip from some “He’s running!”
Well the truth is in politics we’re all running at the moment.
This weekend I will be found sat on my doorstep hemmed in at home by police cordons watching thousands running. The ‘amateurs’ route of the London Marathon goes right past my house. Apart from the annual ritual. with my young son, of spotting who has the silliest, most impractical costume for twenty six miles of endurance, there’s another ‘game’ afoot for me of spotting MPs and Lords also pushing themselves through the distance.
Many of course are also very busy pushing leaflets through letter boxes, campaigning for their local councillors or candidates as we approach the finishing line of the May elections.
These elections are going to be important, of course they are, and some need them to carry more importance than others but it’s worth Conservatives remembering they are not the end of the race. The finishing line that really counts is three long years away and having spoken of clichés here’s another:
It really is a Marathon not a sprint.
Part of the reason some are so keen to frame these local elections as the most significant ever is they’ve been sprinting for two years and the truth is, they’re starting to feel it.
Have we witnessed the end of two party politics in the UK? Probably, for the time being certainly. These elections and the big one to come are definitely a five horse race, and depending on where you are in the UK, six.
The margins in the polls are tighter, every percentage point trickier to earn. It’s not that I am relaxed about the fact that the Conservatives are still polling below the number they had after the General election they so spectacularly lost, but that when five horses are all vying for the top the numbers are harder to gain. That’s just maths.
However there is basic marathon tactics that count here. We aren’t even half way to the finish line and there’s one basic rule for all parties – stay in contention.
We’ve heard plenty from those who want to tell you the final race outcome already just like the excitable commentators and ex-runners will on Sunday for the London Marathon, and political commentators will on the night of the local elections:
‘It’s really just between X and Y; you can discount the rest.’
Well that’s phooey frankly.
They’ve tried it for months and it just isn’t true. The pack is still tight, there is always a front runner but the winners needn’t be out in front at this stage, they just need to be in contention.
In the early stages, this time last year, there was real concern. The Conservatives were stumbling still hamstrung by a toxicity of brand, that has been, will still be, hard to shake off. One of our most ambitious athletes was on manoeuvres to take over as team captain, before realising he probably couldn’t and ended up negotiating a switch to the team out in front.
But they aren’t as out in front as they were. We can all see it despite the denials and critiques of the pollsters. Notwithstanding Lord Ashcroft’s sage warning this morning about being too reliant on polling as your form sheet, the pack as I say is still tight at the top and the Conservatives have not dropped back but, painfully slowly, inched forward.
Sometimes third, sometimes second, occasionally fourth in some places, but not completely off the pace and ‘off the pace’ or out of the race, is exactly what some rivals want us and the electorate to believe is true.
I’ve spent two years watching this race, openly supporting one team within it, and I can see a stumble ahead in May, I’ve seen an unpromising start and a long uphill climb coming ahead, but I’m still confident that not only are the Tories not ‘out of the race’ they are contending.
Will they win in the end? I have absolutely no idea. Possibly not.
But the important part at this pre-halfway stage is it’s still unwise to say definitely not. That kind of hubris has a running partner, and it’s nasty when it catches up with you.
And just look at the defending champions and their staggering leader. It’s not just that the crowd can see he’s out of his depth at this level of competition, his own team know he really might pass out before the finish line. Some would already like to help him do so. And outside his team the missteps, the wobbles, and the disastrous tactics have quite naturally put a spring in every challenger’s own steps.
Watch the Marathon on Sunday, watch how it plays out. It won’t tell you much about who’ll win any elections but it may demonstrate a rule of politics. If you can stay the course amongst the leaders, not get stuck too far behind, but not necessarily out in front – you still have a chance. A chance your rivals may be desperate to ruin, and you may take every opportunity to ruin theirs – but a chance.
After what will be a shaky moment on May 7th for the Tories, and ghastly for Labour, the Conservative Party needs to re-focus on the long road ahead, dig deeper, and start setting the pace, rather than just keeping up with it.