Gareth Davies MS is a former Welsh Conservative Member of the Senedd for Vale of Clwyd, and served as the Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Culture, Tourism, Sport, and North Wales. He is a candidate in the upcoming election on May 7th.
Most of the British commentariat, should they take any interest in devolved politics, will focus on Scotland.
The Scottish Government has courted headlines by locking horns with the UK government over gender self-ID policies, and with a nationalist-led government since 2007 has long been on the precipice of independence. But in the upcoming May elections, the most consequential devolved contest this year does not lie north of the border.
The Scottish elections are, in truth, an exercise in inevitability. The Scottish National Party will hold, perhaps extend, its dominance. The Conservatives will shed votes to Reform, and Labour will lose support to the Greens, the SNP, and the Liberal Democrats.
Wales, by contrast, is set for a significant upset. The governing party is expected to be decimated after 27 years in power, if polling is to be believed. For the first time in Welsh devolution, Labour’s grip on Cardiff Bay is under serious threat. Most polls suggest Plaid Cymru will gain the most seats, an outcome that would have seemed fanciful even a few years ago. More striking still, there are projections that the First Minister, Eluned Morgan, could lose her own seat. Labour was born out of South Wales, where it has long enjoyed a strong foothold, but that footing is now at risk.
Wales remains, by instinct and temperament, a small-c conservative nation, valuing community, family, hard work, and rootedness. The Welsh are pragmatic, cautious, and proudly patriotic. South Wales MP and founder of the Labour Party, Keir Hardie, famously argued passionately against unrestricted immigration of low-wage workers. The instincts of many in South Wales have changed little, but the attitude in the modern Labour Party, and indeed Plaid Cymru, towards these socially conservative and immigration-conscious voters is one of hostility.
Why, then, is Wales seemingly poised to elect a Plaid Cymru government? Partly because Plaid Cymru has spent the past few years cultivating a softer, more respectable image—less strident, less overtly radical, more attuned to the language of everyday concerns. For many voters, particularly those disillusioned with Labour, Plaid offers what appears to be a moderate, patriotic alternative that speaks for Wales, stands up for Welsh interests, and wraps itself in the comforting language of national identity.
Appearances, however, can be deceptive. For all the rebranding, Plaid Cymru remains a radical left-wing party, as committed to gender self-ID, a large state, and independence from the United Kingdom as the SNP is in Scotland. But Plaid is now marketing themselves as moderates and a party of change. For nearly three decades, however, Plaid has propped up Labour governments in Wales, helping to pass their budgets and sustaining the very system that has delivered some of the worst public service outcomes in the United Kingdom. Wales has the lowest educational outcomes, as measured by the international PISA rankings; it suffers from the longest NHS waiting times, the lowest pay levels in the UK, and low productivity.
This is the direct consequence of a political culture that prioritises process over outcomes, ideology over evidence, and gesture over delivery. There is little reason to believe that a Plaid-led government would chart a wholly different course. Beneath the exterior lies a programme that is every bit as interventionist, as socially radical, and as economically incompetent as the Labour administrations it seeks to replace—albeit with an added commitment, however gradual or oblique, to Welsh independence. In effect, it is Corbynism with Welsh nationalist characteristics.
Reform UK has also generated considerable excitement in certain quarters, particularly in the South Wales Valleys, where frustration with the status quo runs deep. Reform UK in Wales, however, remains a fledgling operation, short on experience and thinner still on coherent policy. Its support for the expansion of the Senedd, at a time when public trust in political institutions is fragile, speaks to a lack of seriousness about the priorities of ordinary voters. This is not a party prepared to govern, but is a party still getting to grips with how to campaign.
This leaves the Welsh Conservatives, who are offering a programme rooted in practical reform and fiscal responsibility. Conservative pledges to lower the basic rate of income tax, abolish business rates for small enterprises, cut wasteful spending, and reverse the costly expansion of the Senedd are not grand ideological gestures but concrete steps aimed at restoring economic vitality.
Wales has also suffered from years of underinvestment in infrastructure, whilst cash has been thrown at ideological pet projects such as Universal Basic Income pilot schemes, the Nation of Sanctuary Scheme, and default 20mph speed limits. Since 2021, the Welsh Government has decided to freeze all road-building projects, driven by Labour and Plaid’s ideological opposition on environmental grounds. Most notable is their failure to deliver the M4 relief road, a project that commands broad support and would address one of the country’s most persistent transport and economic bottlenecks. The Welsh Conservatives have committed to ending this freeze and investing in road infrastructure upgrades such as the M4 relief road and the A55 in North Wales. We in the Welsh Conservatives have committed to declaring a health emergency, expanding bed capacity, and investing in community hospitals to relieve pressure on overburdened A&E departments.
Education, too, demands urgent attention. The decline in standards is neither inevitable nor irreversible, but it does require a willingness to challenge entrenched methods and to focus relentlessly on outcomes rather than intentions, correcting poor behaviour, and going back to tried and tested teaching methods rather than discredited trendy techniques that have left 20% of Welsh children leaving primary school functionally illiterate. These are common-sense centre-right policies and the Welsh Conservatives are the competent choice to chart that course.
This election, then, will not simply decide who governs Wales, but whether the desire for change translates into meaningful improvement or merely a continuation of the same political culture under a different, more nationalist, banner. Should Plaid Cymru emerge at the head of a new administration, the burden will fall heavily on the Welsh Conservatives to provide a serious, credible opposition and to reconnect with those voters who feel increasingly disillusioned with the direction of travel. Welsh politics may have long existed on the periphery of national attention, but the consequences of this contest, both for Wales and the wider Union, are likely to ensure that it does not remain there for much longer.
Gareth Davies MS is a former Welsh Conservative Member of the Senedd for Vale of Clwyd, and served as the Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Culture, Tourism, Sport, and North Wales. He is a candidate in the upcoming election on May 7th.
Most of the British commentariat, should they take any interest in devolved politics, will focus on Scotland.
The Scottish Government has courted headlines by locking horns with the UK government over gender self-ID policies, and with a nationalist-led government since 2007 has long been on the precipice of independence. But in the upcoming May elections, the most consequential devolved contest this year does not lie north of the border.
The Scottish elections are, in truth, an exercise in inevitability. The Scottish National Party will hold, perhaps extend, its dominance. The Conservatives will shed votes to Reform, and Labour will lose support to the Greens, the SNP, and the Liberal Democrats.
Wales, by contrast, is set for a significant upset. The governing party is expected to be decimated after 27 years in power, if polling is to be believed. For the first time in Welsh devolution, Labour’s grip on Cardiff Bay is under serious threat. Most polls suggest Plaid Cymru will gain the most seats, an outcome that would have seemed fanciful even a few years ago. More striking still, there are projections that the First Minister, Eluned Morgan, could lose her own seat. Labour was born out of South Wales, where it has long enjoyed a strong foothold, but that footing is now at risk.
Wales remains, by instinct and temperament, a small-c conservative nation, valuing community, family, hard work, and rootedness. The Welsh are pragmatic, cautious, and proudly patriotic. South Wales MP and founder of the Labour Party, Keir Hardie, famously argued passionately against unrestricted immigration of low-wage workers. The instincts of many in South Wales have changed little, but the attitude in the modern Labour Party, and indeed Plaid Cymru, towards these socially conservative and immigration-conscious voters is one of hostility.
Why, then, is Wales seemingly poised to elect a Plaid Cymru government? Partly because Plaid Cymru has spent the past few years cultivating a softer, more respectable image—less strident, less overtly radical, more attuned to the language of everyday concerns. For many voters, particularly those disillusioned with Labour, Plaid offers what appears to be a moderate, patriotic alternative that speaks for Wales, stands up for Welsh interests, and wraps itself in the comforting language of national identity.
Appearances, however, can be deceptive. For all the rebranding, Plaid Cymru remains a radical left-wing party, as committed to gender self-ID, a large state, and independence from the United Kingdom as the SNP is in Scotland. But Plaid is now marketing themselves as moderates and a party of change. For nearly three decades, however, Plaid has propped up Labour governments in Wales, helping to pass their budgets and sustaining the very system that has delivered some of the worst public service outcomes in the United Kingdom. Wales has the lowest educational outcomes, as measured by the international PISA rankings; it suffers from the longest NHS waiting times, the lowest pay levels in the UK, and low productivity.
This is the direct consequence of a political culture that prioritises process over outcomes, ideology over evidence, and gesture over delivery. There is little reason to believe that a Plaid-led government would chart a wholly different course. Beneath the exterior lies a programme that is every bit as interventionist, as socially radical, and as economically incompetent as the Labour administrations it seeks to replace—albeit with an added commitment, however gradual or oblique, to Welsh independence. In effect, it is Corbynism with Welsh nationalist characteristics.
Reform UK has also generated considerable excitement in certain quarters, particularly in the South Wales Valleys, where frustration with the status quo runs deep. Reform UK in Wales, however, remains a fledgling operation, short on experience and thinner still on coherent policy. Its support for the expansion of the Senedd, at a time when public trust in political institutions is fragile, speaks to a lack of seriousness about the priorities of ordinary voters. This is not a party prepared to govern, but is a party still getting to grips with how to campaign.
This leaves the Welsh Conservatives, who are offering a programme rooted in practical reform and fiscal responsibility. Conservative pledges to lower the basic rate of income tax, abolish business rates for small enterprises, cut wasteful spending, and reverse the costly expansion of the Senedd are not grand ideological gestures but concrete steps aimed at restoring economic vitality.
Wales has also suffered from years of underinvestment in infrastructure, whilst cash has been thrown at ideological pet projects such as Universal Basic Income pilot schemes, the Nation of Sanctuary Scheme, and default 20mph speed limits. Since 2021, the Welsh Government has decided to freeze all road-building projects, driven by Labour and Plaid’s ideological opposition on environmental grounds. Most notable is their failure to deliver the M4 relief road, a project that commands broad support and would address one of the country’s most persistent transport and economic bottlenecks. The Welsh Conservatives have committed to ending this freeze and investing in road infrastructure upgrades such as the M4 relief road and the A55 in North Wales. We in the Welsh Conservatives have committed to declaring a health emergency, expanding bed capacity, and investing in community hospitals to relieve pressure on overburdened A&E departments.
Education, too, demands urgent attention. The decline in standards is neither inevitable nor irreversible, but it does require a willingness to challenge entrenched methods and to focus relentlessly on outcomes rather than intentions, correcting poor behaviour, and going back to tried and tested teaching methods rather than discredited trendy techniques that have left 20% of Welsh children leaving primary school functionally illiterate. These are common-sense centre-right policies and the Welsh Conservatives are the competent choice to chart that course.
This election, then, will not simply decide who governs Wales, but whether the desire for change translates into meaningful improvement or merely a continuation of the same political culture under a different, more nationalist, banner. Should Plaid Cymru emerge at the head of a new administration, the burden will fall heavily on the Welsh Conservatives to provide a serious, credible opposition and to reconnect with those voters who feel increasingly disillusioned with the direction of travel. Welsh politics may have long existed on the periphery of national attention, but the consequences of this contest, both for Wales and the wider Union, are likely to ensure that it does not remain there for much longer.