Kemi Badenoch has grown into her role as Leader of the Opposition. Yes, some people wish that happened a bit faster – they mutter about a wasted first year – but you can’t go back in time. And when we look at the present, Badenoch is now the most popular political party leader, or least unpopular, however you want to look at it.
There is a confidence in character that has always been there, but is clearly beginning to bloom more in the role. It is a Conservative Party asset; a quality that Sir Keir Starmer is severely lacking in. Consider her appearance yesterday in Billericay. When heckled with cries of “Free Palestine” and accusations touching on antisemitism, Badenoch did not retreat into the usual politician’s repertoire of evasion or studied deafness. Instead she responded off-the-cuff with real moral clarity, authenticity and eloquence.
Her unscripted response was unambiguous in its defence of British Jews and its rejection of what she framed as a culture of intimidation.
“It’s very important that people know what it is they are voting for with me and what they will have with me is someone who is very determined to stop this climate of intimidation and hatred towards Jews… what I’m doing is supporting Jewish people from the sort of ignorance people like you put out there and I will never be intimidated by it.”
I would recommend watching the clip. She showed off her guts, strength and determination. And yet despite her own impressive attributes – here lies the difficulty – Badenoch’s personal traction is not translating into party recovery. The Conservatives remain flat at around 18 per cent in the polls, with more Britons holding a favourable view of Badenoch than would vote for the Conservative Party. It is an awkward disjunction.
Comparisons have been made – including, I’m told, at shadow cabinet by pollster Luke Tryl – with David Cameron’s time in opposition where his polling led the party’s polling for some time. But as one Tory MP pointed out to me, that began from a higher base level and in very different circumstances.
There is an acceptance about forthcoming grim local election results. Apart from in London, where there are some gains expected, the Conservative Party’s performance in English local councils is expected to take a hammering, with dismal predictions for their presence in the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. It may leave some wondering whether the party is really a national one anymore.
Badenoch is expected to make a big show of the Tories movement in London as evidence of positive movement, early on in results day, before the hammering really comes home. and Within the party the real benchmark on performance is that the Conservative overall voteshare increases on local elections last year.
There is a haze in which this is coming under, as people point out – and they are correct to do so – that this is contesting the final wave of Boris/vaccine bounce gains for the Tories. This means big losses. But the spin is that once this painful adjustment is over, they are then on an even ground again. Sure, it’s an attempt at a positive spin, but that requires massive rebuilding – the even ground will have collapsed. Councils outside London are set to fall out of Conservative control, including in heartlands like Essex, where Badenoch’s constituency sits.
This is where some of the Badenoch leadership seems confused on fresh rebuilding for the party. Yes, Badenoch is working and people increasingly like her – put her up against Starmer, Farage, Davey and Polanski, and she leads all four match ups of who the public would rather be Prime Minister. She is getting policy U-turns, causing problems for the government, revealing scandals. People like that too. The problem is, and the reason it is not reflecting in the wider party polls, is that they don’t like the old Tory Party brand.
So what can the party do? I believe part of the answer lies in giving it a full refresh. I remember, still reeling from the general election but fresh after Badenoch’s leadership win, one newly elected Conservative MP recognised the problem then: “Refresh the party. Rebrand it completely if she likes. Give it a new logo, even a new name could be an option. We just can’t look the same! We can’t be the people the public just resolutely rejected after 14 years.” Is it too late into her leadership to do something like rebrand the party completely? Perhaps, but I don’t think it’s impossible.
Another option which has been spoken of widely within the party and could make a good start is providing further distance from the past when it comes to prominent positions. Shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel, who was home secretary during the Boriswave; shadow home secretary Chris Philp, who was chief secretary to the Treasury during the Liz Truss mini-budget fiasco; and shadow chancellor Mel Stride, who at the Department of Work and Pensions saw rocketing welfare bills, are the names most frequently cited, as I have written before.
A comprehensive reshuffle would allow for a reset with fresh faces that could revitalise the party brand and also give a boost of energy to important roles. But Badenoch ruled this out over the weekend in an interview with The Sunday Times in which she said: “No, no. People like to stir up these sorts of things … but I like the team that I’ve got. I put them there for a reason.”
There goes another option. So team Badenoch really needs to think about the remaining levers she can pull and what the Tory Party can do next to really change their trajectory and get it following hers. The party brand is holding her back, and she must do something about it.
As Hugo Gye pointed out in The i, there is room for a comeback post local elections – crucially Reform voters appear more open to supporting her than Conservatives seem to voting for Farage, and with Labour struggling, he argued it leaves a fertile centre for someone whose public image is still being shaped.
If Badenoch wants the Conservative Party to be the next party of government, she should and could shape it to make it look like one.