Cllr Deborah Taylor is the Leader of the Conservative Group on Leicestershire County Council.
Reform UK has narrowly held the Narborough and Whetstone division of Leicestershire County Council following a closely fought by-election on Thursday 16 April, but the result has exposed a sharp erosion in the party’s local support just ten months after taking 25 seats in Leicestershire and forming a minority administration.
The contest was triggered by the resignation of Reform councillor Andrew Thorp, who stepped down in February, citing a health issue and a family matter. Thorp had been elected in May 2025 with 42 per cent of the vote as part of Reform’s surge.
Reform candidate Dee North was elected with 1,033 votes (32.9 per cent), defeating Conservative challenger Les Phillimore on 927 votes (29.5 per cent). Green candidate Mike Jelfs finished a close third with 884 votes (28.2 per cent), while Labour and the Liberal Democrats lagged behind. Turnout stood at 29.55 per cent, consistent with recent county council by-elections.
While Reform succeeded in defending the seat, the scale of the victory was markedly reduced. The party’s vote share fell by more than nine percentage points compared with the May 2025 county elections, transforming what had been a comfortable 600-vote margin into a narrow hold vulnerable to even a modest further swing.
Narborough and Whetstone is a suburban division on the edge of Leicester with a long history of Conservative representation at the county level. Reform’s 2025 victory was the product of a countywide surge rather than entrenched support, and this by-election suggests the division has reverted to being a highly competitive three‑way marginal.
The Conservatives recorded a significant swing in their favour and came within just over 100 votes of regaining the seat, while the Greens almost doubled their vote share, underlining the fragmentation of the anti‑Reform vote.
The drop in Reform’s vote share will be the most closely examined feature of the result. Since forming a minority administration at Leicestershire County Council, the party has experienced resignations, defections and repeated controversies that have raised questions about experience and stability. The infighting continues, especially in the lead-up to the annual meeting of the council.
Critics argue that frequent changes in senior roles, missed meetings by councillors and high‑profile internal disputes have dulled the party’s appeal as a credible governing force, particularly as Reform has moved from opposition rhetoric to the practical demands of running a major shire authority.
Although Reform supporters point to the February 2026 budget, which delivered the lowest council tax rise in a decade, critics note that this was achieved partly by using £15.4 million of reserves built up under the previous Conservative administration, despite Reform having campaigned on reducing and then freezing council tax.
The by-election result indicates that a portion of voters who backed Reform in 2025 as an insurgent alternative are now more hesitant, even if they are not uniformly returning to the Conservatives.
Crucially, Narborough and Whetstone are not an isolated case. Reform holds a considerable number of county council seats with very slim majorities; many won during the 2025 surge on fragmented opposition votes rather than overwhelming local support. This creates a structural vulnerability for the party as it heads into the second year of governing.
If further by-elections are triggered through resignations, defections, or disqualifications and if the swing away from Reform seen in Narborough and Whetstone were repeated elsewhere, the consequences could be severe. Even a handful of losses would be enough to strip Reform of its position as the largest party on the council, effectively ending its ability to function as a viable minority administration.
Such a scenario would place control of County Hall back into a more conventional opposition-led arrangement and raise fundamental questions about Reform’s durability beyond its initial breakthrough.
For Reform, holding the seat avoids an immediate setback, but it does little to dispel concerns about declining momentum. For the Conservatives, the swing back in a traditionally Tory-leaning division will be read as evidence that some shire voters are drifting home after last year’s upheaval.
With local government reorganisation proposals on the horizon and severe pressures on adult and children’s social care and SEND services, the focus is increasingly shifting from protest politics to competence and delivery.
The Narborough and Whetstone by-election delivered a Reform hold but not reassurance. Ten months after sweeping into power, the party remains competitive, but the narrowing of its margins suggests that if current trends persist, its grip on Leicestershire County Council could yet prove short‑lived.