You probably don’t know who Bjorge Lillelien is.
Not a new Reform UK councillor though by tonight there’ll be lots of those. He’s not a Gaza obsessed Green, or a relation of the Thunberg doom-goblin. He will never vote Tory or Labour but not because he dislikes the former ‘two main parties’ but because he never had a vote in the UK, and because he’s been dead nearly forty year.
He isn’t a political commentator, though a legendary commentator.
He was a Norwegian sports reporter and in 1981 after a World Cup qualifier against England reeled off a now legendary roll call as Norway won.
Well change the names to members of Keir Starmer’s cabinet and you really have this morning’s headline. The scale of their losses is such they are under-performing their lowest expectations, and that’s saying something.
I mean right this minute we aren’t even at half time, and the commentary so far on these local elections is so ‘early doors’ that it has largely concentrated on commentary of local elections!
Two ideas on timing spring to mind. Election reactions programmes should probably not start so early – with so little data to go on – it’s a little farcical and only nerds like me can’t resist watching anyway. And as Andrew Bowie MP has tweeted overnight, why can’t we just get counts done and over with by breakfast?
The answer is money, staff welfare, and over-time payments but nobody wants to hear that right now.
However even now, the scale of the Labour collapse is clear. They are being eaten alive by Reform in the North and their left flanks is under severe assault from the Greens.
So come on ConservativeHome what of the Conservatives?
Well here’s the first klaxon. The narrative before the counts will be much the same after:
‘Yes, it’s not great to lose good people simply because some are still angry with the party of 2010-2024. It’s a bad night, but it’s not nearly as bad as we thought it might be six months ago. Yes, it begs questions of the Conservatives but the one it won’t now beg is should Kemi Badenoch stay leader of the party. It’s more can the party raise it’s brand or is going to stay stuck where it is’
That’s a cocktail of: confidence the changes made will continue. The Badenoch factor is positive. The vibe of her vision and direction is truly Conservative – “I am the Right” – and it’s a heavy dose of what they call ‘cope’. There is no version of today that has the Tories doing really well, just perhaps better than they’d feared, and far less traumatic than what will happen to Labour. That’s not winning though, that’s living to fight another day – and it will still be a fight.
Some big questions remain. Should Badenoch have ruled out any kind of reshuffle of her team? Moot point. I think many Tories are more interested than she seems to be with a new chapter of a new politics starting with new blood and them being given new responsibility.
We’ll see if that promise not to have a reshuffle holds longer than Zia Yusuf’s now passed deadline for Tory defectors which didn’t actually elicit any more new faces than they got a few months ago. We’ll be asking about that an other things in a new ConservativeHome post election survey.
And speaking of new, though it’s old news, Reform UK are doing well.
Really really well to give them their due. But since they’ll give themselves that due in spades, maybe one promise Badenoch made pre polling should stand: no deals. Nothing at all. Just keep slugging it out. There is nothing to be gained by being a smaller partner, ask the Lib Dems, so hold the line, and KBO. The Tories aren’t and actually never were, as dead as Reform have spent nearly two years claiming and besides there’s clearly no appetite for compromise on either side. So be it.
It should be recognised, though Nigel Farage might in fact be the old kid-on-the-block, Reform UK are new and to achieve the gains they have in so short a time, is a logistical and political phenomenon. Few appreciate what an achievement that is, for any new party, even one with foundations older than they like to admit.
There are some counters to that.
Harlow Council, in Essex, was an early indicator of how it’s not all going their way. A small moment of check, as Tories were told the 11 seats up for grabs would all go Reform, and not one of them has, all going to the Conservatives. But don’t get comfy.
Look out later for Wandsworth where – and I am bound to admit there are fewer of these than the reverse – a vote for Reform might well be a vote for Labour, denying the Tories the chance to win it back.
Fareham council sits in Suella Braverman’s patch and is held this morning by the Tories Reform gaining just one seat, the Tories losing one, but still firmly out in front of their nearest rival.
London might provide some later good news but don’t bank it yet, we won’t know until later which is why I strongly recommend sticking with Harry Phibbs’ ConservativeHome live blog which he will be updating throughout the day – there will be time lags as results come in from counts not starting for a few hours yet, and Tories can update him. Please do.
It never was going to be a glorious morning for the Conservatives, but I’d say the ‘sit rep’ right now is a beleaguered but unbowed acceptance of baked in expectations. The tragedy is losing people, largely not down to their own performance and who have given loyal service to their party and community. If you care about the party you should care about them.
The one loss everyone is talking about this morning – and a final klaxon warning from me, the media aren’t really talking about the Conservatives much at all right this minute (which can be a mixed blessing) – is a job that wasn’t even up for election.
We hear that a little later the Prime Minister will launch a bullish reset, but watch them fumble shutting that stable door, months after the horse bolted, kept going and set up home elsewhere. The calls for Starmer to go have already started within the Labour party.
Tali Fraser will give you more reaction later today – but from the touchline and watching the Labour party take a hell of a beating less than two years after a general election landslide as Dorothy said, folks, we are not in Kansas anymore.