Saturday 5.30pm
Pleased to report that Peter Golds is back in Tower Hamlets. He is a regular contributor to our site.
The Green Party are the largest party on Lambeth Council. They are also doing well in Lewisham.
Croydon Council sees Labour with 30 councillors, the Conservatives with 28. Reform UK only pick up a couple, which they will be disappointed about.
Labour has lost control of Bradford. Reform UK are the largest party, with the Conservatives in second place.
I have plugged the BBC’s projected national vote share figures into Electoral Calculus, which says they would produce a House of Commons with Reform UK three seats short of an overall majority.
But Michael Thrasher, for Sky News, has some different figures for national equivalent vote share. Those are Reform UK on 27 per cent, the Conservatives on 20, Labour on 15, with Lib Dems and the Green Party each on 14. That would mean an overall majority of 26 for Reform UK. The Conservatives on 91 would be the main opposition party. Just a bit of fun, as Peter Snow used to say.
So to round up…
Projections based on opinion polls had Labour and the Conservatives each losing “only” half their seats. Labour has done worse than that, with 1,053 councillors losing 1,496. The Conservatives have done better with 801 councillors, losing 563.
But Labour has done better than some other projections, which tried to adjust for lower turnout or looked to Council by-elections as a guide. Ben Walker at the New Statesman thought Labour would lose 1,941 seats. Lord Hayward plumped for 1,850. Professor Stephen Fisher offered 1,900. So hurrah for the Labour Party! Except that as Daniel Finkelstein says in The Times:
“Because there were forecasters who saw Labour losing 70 per cent of its seats, some depict losing what is still more than half their seats as a relief. Yet such a discrepancy between forecasts and outcome is a piece of information only about forecasters. The information about Labour remains that it is an utter disaster.
“Similarly the test for the Conservatives cannot be that they have failed to be utterly obliterated. It’s terrible for the main opposition party to be losing seats on this scale.”
Let me finish by recalling an especially prescient forecast from New Year’s Eve. Entitled “The 2026 local elections will be disastrous for Labour” it appeared on this site and was written by me. Reform UK would make sweeping advances except in London. “This is the hardest territory for Reform UK – the anti London party,” I wrote.
I also said:
“Consider some of the Labour councils implicated in the rape gangs (“grooming gangs”) scandal. Several of the worst culprits face elections – Bradford, Wakefield, Sandwell, Oldham, Rochdale, Kirklees… That issue is likely to resonate in some of those local contests.”
That must have been a factor for many voters in those areas feeling betrayed by the way Labour Party was performing in local government. Once proud Labour supporters felt ashamed on what their Party was doing. Often voters are scolded for voting in local elections on national issues. But if there is no local issue that gives them a reason to vote one way rather than another who can blame them? In those areas, there was a very powerful reason for voting to throw out their Labour councillors.
8.45pm
Barnet has gone to a tie. 31 seats each for Labour and the Conservatives. There is one seat that went to the Green Party. So I imagine Labour will do some sort of deal. How that will go down with local residents is another matter. Enfield is also an intriguing prospect. The Conservatives gained six seats to finish as the largest party with 31. Labour is on 27. But the Green Party has five seats.
Some further results from Birmingham see Reform UK nudging up to 19, the Conservatives to 17, the Green Party to 17, with Labour stuck on 16.
The Conservatives have lost West Sussex to no overall control. Reform UK are the largest party with 30 seats.
I will sign off now, but I leave you with the projected national vote share from Professor Sir John Curtice:
8.30pm
I have now returned from The Mitre pub in Dawes Road, where the Hammersmith and Fulham Conservatives have been celebrating the gains in the Sands End Ward and resolving to further champion the cause of freedom and the overthrow of municipal socialism in my borough.
So what is there to update you on?
Labour’s losses have increased to 1,249. Among the losses is Coventry. They are still the largest party there and might persuade the Green Party to prop them up. Reform UK gained 20 seats.
Reform UK has gained Wakefield. A pretty dramatic landslide result there. It gained 58 seats – nearly all from the Labour Party.
Sandwell was another Reform UK victory. It gained 41 seats, thus switching control from Labour.
Then there was Walsall, which Reform UK gained from no overall control. Here the Conservatives took the greatest pounding, losing 26 seats, Labour lost 16.
Reform UK has also gained Gateshead (38 gains nearly all from Labour), Thurrock (45 gains mostly from Labour), St Helens (34 gains mostly from Labour but also from the Green Party) and South Tyneside (41 gains mostly from Labour but also from independents.)
Then we have Birmingham. The situation there is so complicated I had better offer this graphic, courtesy of the BBC:
7pm
I’m taking a break. But I will be back later. There is still lots of excitement to come. Not least in Barnet. The Conservatives are making gains. But will it be enough to secure victory?
6.45pm
The Conservatives have lost overall control in Solihull but are the largest party. They have 24 seats. Reform UK is on 17. The Green Party lost seven seats – the Marxist/Islamist message does not go down well everywhere.
The latest tally shows Labour’s losses over a thousand. As are Reform UK’s gains. 
6.30pm
Plaid Cymru is the largest Senedd party but short of a majority. It is on 43 seats. Reform UK is on 34. Labour on nine. The Conservatives on seven. The Green Party on two and the Lib Dems on one. So there is still a socialist majority – despite the historic defeat for Labour.
St Helens is looking good for Reform UK. Thus far, they are on 15. Labour is on nil.
Labour has lost Swindon to no overall control. The Conservatives have gained seven seats and are now the largest party with 23. Labour are next on 19. Then come Reform UK, with 14.
Labour has held Sefton – albeit with the loss of 15 seats.
6.15pm
The Green Party has gained Waltham Forest. I don’t think that was expected by the pundits or pollsters.
It is confirmed that the Conservatives hold Bromley. Reform UK gained six seats – mostly from Labour.
So far, Barking and Dagenham is proving another disappointment for Reform UK in London. They have gained five seats from Labour, but Labour is still well ahead. Havering is the only London borough where Reform UK has met its expectations. Then, of course, Havering is only in London in a bureaucratic sense. Its inhabitants think of themselves as living in Essex. This is a point that my old friend Andrew Rosindell is not afraid to make.
6pm
The Green Party has gained control in Norwich. Labour was wiped out here. Reform UK gained a couple of seats.
Labour held North Tyneside, but there were only a third of the seats contested, of which they won five and Reform UK won ten.
The Conservatives have lost control of Norfolk, going down to just seven seats. Reform UK is by far the largest party with 39, but not quite an overall majority. They will have to ingratiate themselves with Rupert Lowe’s Great Yarmouth First contingent of ten councillors. A bit awkward.
5.45pm
Burnley had a third of the seats contested this time round. Reform UK won 11. Independents had three. The Lib Dems one. Labour, Conservatives and the Green Party all on nil. So some interesting coalition negotiations to follow.
An update on Birmingham. The Conservatives are on 11, Labour and Reform UK on nine each. But only half the results are in.
5.30pm
Jason Perry has been re-elected as the directly elected Conservative Mayor of Croydon.
In other Mayoral contests, the Lib Dems have held on in Watford and Labour in Newham. The Green Party has gained the Mayoralty in Lewisham from Labour.
5.15pm
Eluned Morgan says she will step down as leader of the Welsh Labour Party, after losing her seat in the Senedd.
Cherwell stays under no overall control. Reform UK gained six seats in what would not be regarded as their natural territory.
5pm
What would the results so far mean, extrapolated as national vote share and then applied at a General Election?
Over at Sky News, Professor Michael Thrasher has been crunching the numbers…
4.45pm
The Isle of Wight has seen big gains by Reform UK from the Conservatives, leaving Reform UK just shy of overall control.
4.30pm
A familiar pattern. Labour is losing its seats in Newcastle-upon-Tyne to Reform UK and the Green Party. Labour is losing many seats to Reform UK in Barnsley – though not being wiped out, which counts as a relief to them, I suppose.
The Scottish Green Party has gained Edinburgh Central from the SNP.
Reform UK are making gains in Solihull.
The Conservatives have held Hillingdon. Not all the results are in, but so far the Conservatives have gained a couple of seats from Labour. This was considered to be an area where Reform UK might win, but so far, they haven’t got any seats at all.
4.15pm
Confirmation that Reform UK has gained Sunderland from Labour with a huge majority. Of the seats declared so far, it has 39 seats, with nine for the Lib Dems and three for Labour.
3.45pm
Rochdale had a third of the seats up. Labour won two. The Conservatives won two. Reform UK won 12.
Labour has lost overall control of Preston. Reform UK, the Lib Dems and the Green Party made gains. It has also lost overall control of Cambridge, losing six seats to the Green Party.
Early declarations in the Senedd show a close battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. They got two seats each in Casnewydd Islwyn (Newport, in case you were interested) also two seats each in Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg (that’s Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan to you and me). Sir Gaerfyrddin (Carmarthenshire) is three each, as is Blaenau Gwent, Caerffili Rhymni (Blaenau Gwent and Caerphilly.)
3.30pm
I hear that the Conservatives and the Green Party have been making gains in Brent. Only a few results so far.
Some encouraging news from “Three Rivers District Council”. (They mean Rickmansworth. Who would ever say:? “I live in Three Rivers.”) The Conservatives have gained three seats. The Lib Dems are down two. Labour is down one.
3.15pm
The Conservatives do seem to be holding on in Bromley. The Lib Dems holding Kingston. London is proving (relatively) boring.
As expected, Reform UK is making sweeping gains in Sunderland.
God alone knows who will end up running Birmingham. Seats going all over the place. Labour and Reform UK are currently on six each. Conservatives on five. Green Party, Lib Dems and independents on three each.
The Conservatives are doing badly in West Sussex. But it is confusing as to what will emerge once the results are in.
3pm
Labour is bucking the trend in Bury – holding on to the Council and gaining a seat from the Conservatives.
A real drubbing for Labour in Manchester. Only a third of seats were contested, but they lost 24. The Green Party gained 17. Reform UK gained seven.
SNP lose Na h-Eileanan an Iar to Labour.
2.45pm
The Conservatives have lost control of Suffolk to Reform UK. The Conservatives lost 40 seats, the Lib Dems two, Labour three. The Green Party gained four. Reform UK gained 41. That is a brutal result for the Conservatives.
Reform UK are also making significant gains in East Sussex in the results so far. West Sussex is a bit more mixed. The Lib Dems have gained The Witterings from the Conservatives – a sad blow, I once went on holiday in West Wittering.
2.30pm
Reform UK are winning most of the seats in Norfolk in the results so far. But Rupert Lowe’s Great Yarmouth First have also done well.
Labour has lost control of Hyndburn. Reform UK gained eight seats there.
In Cannock Chase, Labour has lost control. It now has ten councillors with 14 for Reform UK and eight for the Conservatives.
2.15pm
I hear that Reform UK have gained a seat from Labour in Leeds.
Nigel Farage has issued a statement on the results so far:
“We are feeling confident about the results to come in areas like the North East and the Midlands. And that’s before we get to Wales, where we are going to do well and Labour is going to lose control for the first time in a century. Or in Scotland, where we will also arrive in a big way. In both nations, the Conservatives will be so badly beaten that, as we predicted, they will no longer really exist as a national political party.
“We were optimistic coming into these elections. But our results are exceeding anything that I really thought possible. Last year, we far exceeded expectations when we won the local elections, and now we have done even better.
“That is no protest vote. It’s the creation of a national political movement for real change, one that is on the road to government. More and more people who want real change are recognising that they will only get it by supporting Reform UK. That’s why today Reform UK is one step closer to winning the next general election.”
2pm
Labour have held Knowsley – only a third of the seats were being contested. But Labour lost six while Reform UK gained four.
Some encouraging early results for the Conservatives in Bromley. This is a Council that was a Reform UK target.
1.45pm
A swarm of bees outside the Leisure Centre in Worthing means those attending the count for the West Sussex County Council election have been warned not to leave the building.
Labour has lost control of Blackburn with Darwen council. Reform UK gained nine seats there. The Conservatives were wiped out.
The SNP has gained the Shetland Islands constituency from the Lib Dems.
Guido Fawkes notes that Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party got only 66 votes in its first election result, which took place in Salford.
1.30pm
Some results are coming in from Birmingham, with Labour losing seats to Reform UK and the Green Party.
Gosport’s results are in. Half the seats were up for election. The Lib Dems lost seven. The Conservatives and Labour lost one each. Reform UK gained nine. The council had been a minority Lib Dem administration. But I suspect that will change as the LIb Dems are now behind both the Conservatives and Reform UK.
The Conservatives have gained a couple of seats in West Oxfordshire.
1pm
Two former Conservative MPs are now councillors in Newcastle-under-Lyme. The former Conservative MP for Stoke-on-Trent North, Jonathan Gullis, is the new Reform UK councillor for Kidsgrove and Ravenscliffe. Another former Conservative MP, Jeremy Lefroy was elected as a councillor for Maer and Whitmore for the Conservatives.
In Wales, there are rumours that the First Minister, Eluned Morgan, is set to lose her seat.
12.45pm
The first result from Scotland has the Lib Dems holding the Orkney Islands. The SNP vote was down quite sharply. Make of that what you will.
Results have started trickling out from Sheffield, with Labour losing seats to the Green Party and Reform UK.
Welwyn Hatfield will remain a hung council, with Labour losing three seats so far.
12.30pm
Some results have started coming through from Blackburn with Darwen. Labour is losing seats to independents and Reform UK.
Suffolk is seeing the Conservatives losing seats to Reform UK so far.
Reform UK has won 41 seats so far in Essex and is heading for a landslide there.
12.15pm
One point worth noting is that while some councils continue to be “under no overall control” that does not mean there will be no change. For example, in Basildon, there was a minority Labour administration. A third of the seats were contested. Labour lost six seats and is now on 12, as are the Conservatives. Reform UK are just behind on 11. It would seem unlikely that Labour will continue to run the Council.
Noon
Reform UK has gained Essex. This is not surprising but is still a significant victory for them. MPs for the county include both Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch. Not all the results are in yet but they have already gained over half the seats.
The Green Party has won the Mayoralty in Hackney.
11.45am
The final results from Hampshire show the Conservatives are still the largest party with 27 seats, the Lib Dems on 26 and Reform UK on 20. Also three independents and one each for Labour and the Green Party. It’s a result that had the Conservatives making big losses to Reform UK, but a contrast to the experience of Labour in its bastions. The Conservatives are down but not out. While in many places, Labour has been obliterated. Will Reform UK allow a Conservative minority administration in Hampshire? I would have thought more likely than a Reform/Conservative coalition or of Reform putting the Lib Dems in charge.
Having noted earlier the below expectations showing for the Green Party, there are rumours that they may be doing rather better in Manchester.
Kemi Badenoch has visited Westminster and told the councillors there:
“The Conservatives are coming back. I promised to renew this party – I said we were going to rebuild after our worst defeat ever – and we can see those signs of renewal everywhere that we are standing,”
9.15am
A Conservative spokesman comments on the Bexley result:
“This is another very good result for the Conservative Party in London.
“Reform told everyone repeatedly that they would take control of Bexley, but local residents have chosen to stay with the local Conservatives, who have a track record of delivering for residents, rather than Nigel Farage’s one man band of spin without substance.
“Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party is coming back, and showing that under new leadership we are making progress and will continue to do so.”
The Friday counts are getting underway. But there will probably be a lull for a few hours until we have more results.
8.45am
The Conservatives have held Bexley Council. Many expected Reform UK to gain it. But they have only gained six seats in the results counted so far.
Reform UK has gained control of Havering.
Shadow housing secretary James Cleverly said the Conservatives had had a “tough night”, but there were “some areas where we’ve beaten expectations”.
Tom Harwood tweets:
“Neither YouGov nor More In Common’s MRP analysis suggested the Tories would take Wandsworth or Westminster.”
The Conservatives have gained a by-election in Hertfordshire from Reform UK.
8.30am
Patrick Maguire writes in The Times:
“There is nothing to redeem Sir Keir Starmer in the results from England overnight, nor any plausible consoling fiction left to cling on to. At best, Labour MPs are being taught a hard lesson about the fantastical unpopularity of their leader. At worst, they are witnessing — and frankly are complicit in — Labour’s demise as a national party.”
8.15am
The Conservatives have held Kensington and Chelsea Council, having only lost one seat in the results declared so far. The council leader, Elizabeth Campbell, is a regular contributor to this site. Congratulations.
8.00am
A Conservative spokesman comments on the Wandsworth result:
“We are very pleased to have become the largest party in Wandsworth, and after conversations we are confident that we will run the council.
“This is yet another former Labour council where residents have seen that only the Conservative Party, under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, have the serious plans needed for London and for the country, and the team to deliver it.
“This is a victory for both the local Conservative councillors and activists, and for this new Conservative Party – which is demonstrating that we are making clear progress.”
7.45am
One of the most encouraging messages from the results so far is how badly the Green Party is doing relative to expectations. So far, a net gain of only 25 seats. They have increased their tally in Oxford, Ealing, Exeter and Reading but lost seats in Richmond.
7.30am
We have not had the full results, but Reform UK has a big lead in Havering, having already gained 13 seats. Similarly, in Essex, Reform UK has a large majority in the results declared so far.
It looks likely that Hampshire will be hung. At the moment, the Conservatives are the largest party on 22.
7.15am
The Conservatives have commented on the Westminster result:
“We are delighted the Conservatives have taken control of Westminster Council. Labour are set to have a terrible night in London, an area they swept in the last general election.
“Under Kemi Badenoch, the Conservatives are coming back in London. This victory is a clear sign of the progress the Conservatives are making under new leadership.
“This is also testament to the hard work of Conservative councillors and activists in Westminster. We are confident they will show that only the Conservatives are serious about delivering better services for lower taxes.”
7.00am
It’s confirmed that the Conservatives have gained Westminster. Congratulations to our former columnist Elliot Keck, who gained a seat from Labour.
6.45am
Reform UK has gained Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Conservatives.
The Conservatives are set to gain Westminster with a clear majority. Not all the results are in, but there have already been nine Conservative gains.
6.30am
Labour has lost Wandsworth to no overall control. The Conservatives are on 29 seats with seven gains. Labour is on 28. There is also an independent, Malcolm Grimston, who used to be a Conservative councillor, and emerges as Kingmaker. Aled Richards-Jones, the Conservative Group Leader, has written for us about his borough here.
Labour has held Ealing but lost 13 seats to the Lib Dems and the Green Party. The Conservatives held steady on five seats. (Their leader, Julian Gallant, has written for us about the campaign.) Labour has also easily held on in Merton. Could Labour become the London party? It may well win most of the councils in the capital. But not much elsewhere.
Labour has lost overall control in Southampton.
6am
Good morning and welcome to the bracing new world of multi-party politics. Most of the results are still to come. But it is already clear that Reform UK has had an extraordinary breakthrough with Labour’s support collapsing in many areas. Class-based politics is dead. The poorer the area, the worse for Labour. In much of its supposedly “safe” working-class heartlands it has not merely been defeated but wiped out.
Last year, the Conservatives were the big losers. We had the most to lose, as the contests were for county councils and they had previously been contested in 2021 – when Boris Johnson was at the height of his popularity with the Conservatives gaining the Hartlepool by-election the same day.
This time, it is Labour with most to lose, due to the types of councils up for grabs and as they were mostly last contested in 2022, which was a good year for them. So it would be normal for them to do badly. But the results so far are worse than that for Labour. Keep in mind that in some councils only a third of seats were up for election. In Wigan, for example, Labour lost all 22 of the seats it was defending but retains control of the Council. For now.
I have always felt that decisive all-out elections are better than having the seats come up a third at a time. But while it limits the number of councils it is possible for Reform UK to gain this year, it offers an advantage for them in gaining some experience. Brand new councillors taking power is a daunting prospect. We have seen them struggling due to this in some of the councils they gained last year.
In Tameside, Labour lost 16 out of the 17 seats it was defending. So although only a third of seats were contested, it has lost overall control. In Hull, Labour lost eight of the nine seats it was defending. In Oldham, seven of the nine seats it was defending went. In Plymouth, it was nine out 11. In Dudley, it was 13 out of 14. In Halton, it was 15 out of 17. In Hartlepool, Labour lost all seven seats it was defending. I could go on. The pattern is pretty clear.
So the results thus far are even worse for Labour than the pundits had been predicting. The range had gone from Labour losing “only” half their seats to losing as many as three-quarters. At the moment, their losses are at 83 per cent.
The Conservatives have not only held Harlow Council but gained five seats from Labour there. Why? Perhaps because they offered residents a reason to vote Conservative. The Council Tax has been frozen there for five years in a row. It bucked the trend of Conservative losses last time as well.
Broxbourne saw the Conservatives win seven of the ten seats up for election this time. Fareham was held by the Conservatives with the loss of just one seat. Basildon saw the Conservatives hold three of the four seats being defended this time. Labour lost all six of the ones they had up. In my own local authority, Hammersmith and Fulham, the Conservatives gained two seats from Labour. We gained a seat in Reading.
But in other areas, the results for the Conservatives were dire. In North East Lincolnshire, we lost all nine seats we were defending to Reform UK. In Richmond, the Conservatives have been wiped out by the Lib Dems. Ditto in Sutton.
But the rout for Labour is the big story. The focus will be on whether they oust Keir Starmer. Yet the results are so awful for them that they may decide that would be mere displacement activity.
As Baroness Fox tweeted:
“Driving me mad commentators all focusing on should Starmer stay or should he go. Completely misses point. He may embody popular loathing for Labour, but this is deeper rejection of a whole political elite that’s sneered at, demonised, patronised millions of voters for too long.”
Here are the timings of the results due in today, via the Press Association:
12:30pm
- Blackburn
- Manchester
1pm
- Burnley
1:45pm
- North Tyneside
2pm
- Cheltenham
- Hyndburn
- Rochdale
- Sheffield
- Welwyn Hatfield
2:30pm
- Huntingdonshire
- Norwich
- Pendle
- Preston
- St Helens
- West Oxfordshire
3pm
- Cannock Chase
- Epping Forrest
- Isle of Wight
- Islington
- Leeds
- Rushmoor
- Solihull
- Three Rivers
- Thurrock
- Waltham Forest
3:30pm
- Nuneaton and Bedworth
4pm
- Basingstoke and Deane
- Crawley
- Gateshead
- Hillingdon
- Ipswich
- Rugby
- South Cambridgeshire
- Suffolk
- Sunderland
- Trafford,
- Tunbridge Wells
- West Lancashire
- West Sussex
- Wolverhampton
4:30pm
- Barnsley
- Bury
- Harrow
4:45pm
- Newcastle Upon Tyne
5pm
- Barking and Dagenham
- Barnet
- Brent
- Cambridge
- Coventry
- Enfield
- Essex
- Hackney
- Milton Keynes
- Redbridge
- Sandwell
- St Albams
- Stevenage
- Walsall
- Watford
- Wokingham
5:30pm
- Haringey
- Norfolk
- Sefton
- South Tyneside
6pm
- Adur
- Birmingham
- Camden
- East Surrey
- East Sussex
- Hastings
- Kingston Upon Thames
- Kirklees
- Newham
- Southwark
- Swindon
- Tower Hamlets
- Wakefield
- West Surrey
- Winchester
- Worthing
7pm
- Bromley
- Cherwell
8:30pm
- Calderdale
The following results are not due until Saturday
- Bradford
- Croydon
- Lewisham