Michael Enea is a Welsh Conservative Party member who is a weekly columnist in the South Wales Argus newspaper. He is also the author of ‘The Pointy Finger’ blogging page.
So, in January, I made a bold prediction for Newport in the Welsh Senedd election.
Out of the six seats available for the Newport and Islwyn constituency, I predicted 3 seats would go to Reform, with 1 to Plaid Cymru, 1 to Labour and 1 to the Conservatives. I felt the Greens would miss out.
Looking back, I predicted the winning order correctly. I was slightly out however, as both Reform and Plaid Cymru won 2 seats each.
As the polls closed on Thursday, I also correctly predicted the so-called ‘Portillo Moment’. The big shock of the election? I said Wales First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat – and of course – she did.
Five years ago, I stood as a Welsh Conservative candidate in the 2021 Senedd election for the Newport West constituency.
It was a difficult election. Half of the campaign period fell under tough restrictions imposed by the second ‘lockdown’.
All being said, I fought a robust and hard hitting campaign. At one stage, I topped over one million views on social media. Over 40 people attended my final campaign session in Marshfield on the eve of the election – including the then Welsh Tory Leader Andrew RT Davies. In the end, I gained a respectable 35 per cent vote share. This uplift in votes saw two Conservative Members of Senedd elected on the regional list system.
We almost got a third!
I achieved 10,353 votes, which was the highest number of votes ever obtained by a Conservative in a Welsh parliamentary election for Newport. It is a record that still stands to this day after Thursday’s election where the Conservatives only gained 8,847 votes (in what is now a bigger constituency).
Fast forward five years, and it’s fair to say, the 2026 Senedd election has been a difficult one for the Welsh Conservatives. Five years ago, the Tories secured 16 seats, however this time around they only returned 7 seats in a bigger Welsh Parliament now holding 96 Members of Senedd.
Obviously, the political landscape is very much different in 2026, when compared to five years ago. However, from a Conservative perspective, could they have performed better?
Firstly, a deeply unpopular incumbency rule allowed sitting Tory MSs a ‘priority pass’ at obtaining the top spot on each regional list.
This rule caused major splits, division and even defections among party members. There was real anger over this incumbency rule and lot of members simply ‘downed tools’ when it came to campaigning. Had a free vote been in place, it’s likely a quarter of the old Tory MSs may have failed to claim a top spot.
Secondly, it’s no secret a majority of Conservative Party members support abolishing the Senedd. Rather than risk turning the Conservatives into the ‘Abolish Party’ there were sensible calls to adopt a neutral policy of offering a ‘referendum’ or a four way ‘preferendum’ on 1) abolish, 2) independence 3) MaxoDevo or 4) Small Senedd.
Offering a referendum on devolution would have literally grabbed the headlines in the Senedd campaign. It would have propelled the Tories onto the centre-stage in the political debates and amongst the public. A referendum policy may have boosted the Conservatives up to a 20 per cent share of the vote. This would’ve returned around 19 Members of Senedd rather than the 7 that were actually returned.
To their peril, a referendum on devolution was totally dismissed by the Welsh Tory leadership.
Then there were the Tory election addresses that dropped through letterboxes across Wales. In my view, they were convoluted and over-loaded with information and text boxes. Meanwhile, the Reform leaflet was simple, easy-to-read, and outlined policies with ‘high impact’ wording. I’m not the only one to take this view.
Finally, the campaign slogan of ‘Fix Wales’ was simply too bland and unimaginative. It could’ve been a slogan used by any of the opposition parties. I’ll be honest, I was somewhat disappointed. A slogan of “Lower Taxes, A Stronger Economy” would have at least related to a right-lean political party like the Conservatives.
Obviously, I’m delighted the Conservatives have returned 7 members of Senedd, including our very own Natasha Asghar in Newport. This return is in the ‘ball park’ of what was expected and there is some relief that the party wasn’t totally obliterated with zero seats. However, let’s be frank, out of the 96 seats available, 7 is a poor return.
As the dust settles on the election, there now needs to be an honest, open and thorough review of the Conservatives performance in the election. More than anything, the ‘disconnect’ with the party’s membership has to be repaired, especially on the thorny issue of devolution and abolish.
There also needs to be a total clear-out of staff at the top of the Welsh Conservatives. A change of leadership is needed and that means Darren Miller needs to step aside as the leader. A two or three way leadership race, including a series of hustings, would be a good way to start re-engaging with the party’s membership base.
A total overhaul is now needed with a fresh start.
Michael Enea is a Welsh Conservative Party member who is a weekly columnist in the South Wales Argus newspaper. He is also the author of ‘The Pointy Finger’ blogging page.
So, in January, I made a bold prediction for Newport in the Welsh Senedd election.
Out of the six seats available for the Newport and Islwyn constituency, I predicted 3 seats would go to Reform, with 1 to Plaid Cymru, 1 to Labour and 1 to the Conservatives. I felt the Greens would miss out.
Looking back, I predicted the winning order correctly. I was slightly out however, as both Reform and Plaid Cymru won 2 seats each.
As the polls closed on Thursday, I also correctly predicted the so-called ‘Portillo Moment’. The big shock of the election? I said Wales First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat – and of course – she did.
Five years ago, I stood as a Welsh Conservative candidate in the 2021 Senedd election for the Newport West constituency.
It was a difficult election. Half of the campaign period fell under tough restrictions imposed by the second ‘lockdown’.
All being said, I fought a robust and hard hitting campaign. At one stage, I topped over one million views on social media. Over 40 people attended my final campaign session in Marshfield on the eve of the election – including the then Welsh Tory Leader Andrew RT Davies. In the end, I gained a respectable 35 per cent vote share. This uplift in votes saw two Conservative Members of Senedd elected on the regional list system.
We almost got a third!
I achieved 10,353 votes, which was the highest number of votes ever obtained by a Conservative in a Welsh parliamentary election for Newport. It is a record that still stands to this day after Thursday’s election where the Conservatives only gained 8,847 votes (in what is now a bigger constituency).
Fast forward five years, and it’s fair to say, the 2026 Senedd election has been a difficult one for the Welsh Conservatives. Five years ago, the Tories secured 16 seats, however this time around they only returned 7 seats in a bigger Welsh Parliament now holding 96 Members of Senedd.
Obviously, the political landscape is very much different in 2026, when compared to five years ago. However, from a Conservative perspective, could they have performed better?
Firstly, a deeply unpopular incumbency rule allowed sitting Tory MSs a ‘priority pass’ at obtaining the top spot on each regional list.
This rule caused major splits, division and even defections among party members. There was real anger over this incumbency rule and lot of members simply ‘downed tools’ when it came to campaigning. Had a free vote been in place, it’s likely a quarter of the old Tory MSs may have failed to claim a top spot.
Secondly, it’s no secret a majority of Conservative Party members support abolishing the Senedd. Rather than risk turning the Conservatives into the ‘Abolish Party’ there were sensible calls to adopt a neutral policy of offering a ‘referendum’ or a four way ‘preferendum’ on 1) abolish, 2) independence 3) MaxoDevo or 4) Small Senedd.
Offering a referendum on devolution would have literally grabbed the headlines in the Senedd campaign. It would have propelled the Tories onto the centre-stage in the political debates and amongst the public. A referendum policy may have boosted the Conservatives up to a 20 per cent share of the vote. This would’ve returned around 19 Members of Senedd rather than the 7 that were actually returned.
To their peril, a referendum on devolution was totally dismissed by the Welsh Tory leadership.
Then there were the Tory election addresses that dropped through letterboxes across Wales. In my view, they were convoluted and over-loaded with information and text boxes. Meanwhile, the Reform leaflet was simple, easy-to-read, and outlined policies with ‘high impact’ wording. I’m not the only one to take this view.
Finally, the campaign slogan of ‘Fix Wales’ was simply too bland and unimaginative. It could’ve been a slogan used by any of the opposition parties. I’ll be honest, I was somewhat disappointed. A slogan of “Lower Taxes, A Stronger Economy” would have at least related to a right-lean political party like the Conservatives.
Obviously, I’m delighted the Conservatives have returned 7 members of Senedd, including our very own Natasha Asghar in Newport. This return is in the ‘ball park’ of what was expected and there is some relief that the party wasn’t totally obliterated with zero seats. However, let’s be frank, out of the 96 seats available, 7 is a poor return.
As the dust settles on the election, there now needs to be an honest, open and thorough review of the Conservatives performance in the election. More than anything, the ‘disconnect’ with the party’s membership has to be repaired, especially on the thorny issue of devolution and abolish.
There also needs to be a total clear-out of staff at the top of the Welsh Conservatives. A change of leadership is needed and that means Darren Miller needs to step aside as the leader. A two or three way leadership race, including a series of hustings, would be a good way to start re-engaging with the party’s membership base.
A total overhaul is now needed with a fresh start.