Andrew Gilligan is a writer and former No10 adviser.
Surely the Tories must now start – for the first time in years – to take London seriously? In particular, please can the party this summer pull its finger out and select – again, for the first time in years – a front-rank, heavyweight candidate for Mayor. It could be the most important single thing Kemi Badenoch can do to improve Conservative fortunes in this parliamentary term.
Last week, amid thrashings in Suffolk, Norfolk, Surrey, Sussex, Essex, Hampshire, Scotland and Wales, it was mostly London which gave the party something good to talk about. There were a few successes elsewhere – often in other places in London’s commuter orbit, such as Harlow, Broxbourne, Milton Keynes, Peterborough, Swindon; or in wealthy commuter suburbs of other big cities, such as Trafford and the outer wards of Leeds. Notice a pattern? These successes were small patches in a general picture of retreat, though. In the capital, it was the other way round.
In London we flipped Westminster and Wandsworth from Labour, came within one seat of doing the same in Barnet, became the largest party in Enfield, held on to the Croydon mayoralty, easily saw off Reform in Bexley, Bromley and Hillingdon, won 11 seats in Harrow, seven in Hounslow and five in Brent, and held or increased our seats in 19 of the 25 London boroughs where we were represented before the election. Unlike the rest of the country, our vote share in London (though scarcely brilliant) has held up since 2024, and is seven points ahead of Reform.
As I’ve been saying in this space for the best part of a year, the London mayoralty is within reach for the Conservative Party, if it picks the right candidate, and does it quickly.
It’s a personality, as much as a party, contest.
What that means is that the vote-splintering of other modern elections happens much less in mayoral ones. In 2024, even with a third-rate candidate, the Tories still did more than 12 points better (32.7 per cent) in the London mayoral contest than they did in the London general election (20.5 per cent) just weeks later. That’s because mayoral elections tend to be reported as, and treated by the voters as, a fight between the top two personalities. Other candidates have a harder time persuading voters that they can win.
The key, therefore, is to ensure you are one of the top two personalities.
Even as recently as 2024, this was assured for the Tory candidate. It no longer is, of course. So you need someone with the charisma, experience and substance that Susan Hall didn’t have. That means (say) a former Home Secretary like James Cleverly, not yet another member of the London Assembly. And (CCHQ take note) choose them soon, so Reform doesn’t get another year of the pitch to itself. Their candidate Laila Cunningham hasn’t made much impact yet. Her handicap is that she doesn’t seem to like London very much. But that could change, and it was smart of Reform to pick her so early.
You don’t need to come first.
The election will be held under the supplementary vote system, which has just been reintroduced. Even if the Tory candidate comes second in the first-preference vote, they can still overtake the frontrunner by picking up second preferences from the third, fourth and lower-placed candidates. Each of these second prefs is worth exactly the same as a first-preference vote in the final tally. If Reform can be held to third place – which seems quite possible given last week’s London results – a Tory should be able to pick up most of Cunningham’s second prefs, and some Lib Dem ones.
London’s ethnic mix is a big opportunity for the Tories if they want to take it.
These are socially conservative, entrepreneurial voters with strong family values. In other words, they are quite right-wing, or potentially right-wing – but very unlikely to vote Reform for as long as some of its councillors want to “melt them all down [to] fill in the potholes.” Some ethnicities and faiths will be more reachable than others, but think of these voters as two million potential Kemi Badenochs and remember that one of the biggest stories in US politics is the move of non-white Americans to the right.
The task is to build a coalition of socially conservative ethnic minorities (with a strong effort to raise turnout), fed-up higher-rate taxpayers (also in copious supply in the capital), and the traditional white suburban Tory vote. Plus, of course, everyone who wants to see a bit of grit and leadership exercised in London.
The left will probably be even more vulnerable in 2028.
Even with a new prime minister, it’s hard to fix the car while you’re driving it, and Labour is palpably out of ideas. (Though rejoining the EU is something that could feature in a London campaign; whoever we choose will need a good explanation why it’s not a magic answer.) Sadiq Khan, meanwhile, is hinting he’ll run for a fourth term. It’s probably a pretence to avoid lame duck status, but he’s so useless that let’s hope he means it. If he doesn’t run, with his incumbency and name recognition advantage, there’s a chance the Greens end up as the left frontrunners. They would be even better opponents than Khan, of course.
Winning the mayoralty, or even coming close, would be a huge boost for the Tories.
Memories of the last government are still fresh, and the party is still a toxic brand. But in a personality contest like the mayoralty a strong, engaging candidate can both overcome that – and change it, to the Conservatives’ national advantage. Winning the most important job in England outside Westminster – a year before the general election – would give the Tories an undeniable recovery story, a big bully pulpit, the ability to outshine Labour on crime, taxation and public service provision, and make it impossible to dismiss the party as finished.
So please, let’s get on with it.