Emma Harrison is the Chief Executive of Make Votes Matter, the cross-party campaign for proportional representation
For much of the post-war era, British politics operated on a relatively simple assumption: governments changed, but the system itself remained stable. Power largely alternated between the Conservative Party and the Labour Party. Leaders came and went, majorities rose and fell, but the broader architecture of British politics remained remarkably durable.
That assumption now looks far less secure.
Across Europe, established parties have seen their dominance challenged by newer political movements that were often dismissed as temporary protest vehicles. In many cases, mainstream parties assumed public frustration would eventually dissipate and voters would return. Increasingly, that has not happened.
Britain is not immune from these trends. The rise of Reform UK reflects a broader political volatility that both major parties have struggled to address. Its support draws from disillusioned former Conservative voters, former Labour voters, non-voters and people who feel politically disconnected altogether. What unites many of these groups is not a coherent ideological programme, but a belief that Britain’s political system is no longer delivering for ordinary people.
That perception has been shaped by years of weak economic growth, declining trust in institutions, pressure on public services, high taxes, housing unaffordability and a wider sense of national stagnation. Voters may disagree on the causes, but many increasingly share the view that the status quo is not working.
For Labour, this creates obvious risks. A government seen as managing decline rather than delivering meaningful change could quickly lose public trust. But the challenge for the Conservative Party may be even more profound.
For decades, the Conservatives have often been the principal beneficiaries of Britain’s electoral system. First-past-the-post has historically helped consolidate the right-of-centre vote and convert relatively modest vote shares into parliamentary majorities. That assumption may no longer hold if the right becomes permanently fragmented.
One week ago in one of the most high-profile results of the entire election cycle, we saw the London Borough of Havering swing from a Conservative minority administration to Reform with a large majority of 71%. This overwhelming majority was secured with just 37.8% of the vote. This vote share was only slightly larger than the combined vote share of the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour (33.6%), who collectively won just two seats, with the Conservatives winning zero. A proportional result would have produced a No Overall Control council with Reform, Residents Association, and the Conservatives with the most seats.
The challenge for the Conservatives is that a political system designed around two dominant parties becomes much less predictable when voters become fluid and partisan loyalties weaken. Under those conditions, first-past-the-post can stop acting as a source of stability and instead produce increasingly distorted outcomes.
This matters beyond simple party advantage. Electoral systems do not just determine who wins power, they shape how legitimate those victories appear and how effectively governments can govern once elected. When parties secure large majorities on increasingly narrow vote shares, the gap between parliamentary power and public consent begins to widen.
That creates a dangerous feedback loop. Governments elected with weak mandates often struggle to claim broad public legitimacy when making difficult decisions. Opposition parties, meanwhile, can point to distorted outcomes as evidence that the system itself is unfair. Voters who already feel alienated become even more cynical when election results appear disconnected from how people actually voted.
We are already seeing signs of this. Labour’s 2024 landslide produced enormous parliamentary power without anything close to overwhelming public support. At the same time, parties with millions of votes continue to find themselves dramatically under-represented. If that pattern becomes normal, elections may continue to deliver decisive-looking governments while deepening public dissatisfaction underneath the surface. Stability on paper can quickly become instability in practice.
The question for Conservatives is whether they continue defending an electoral model built for a political era that may be ending.
Electoral reform has often been treated as a cause of the centre-left, but growing fragmentation on the right may force Conservatives to think differently. If their long-term challenge is not simply defeating Labour, but competing in a more fractured political landscape, their relationship with electoral reform may need to evolve.
The 2024 General Election was the most disproportionate in history with Labour winning a landslide victory on 34% of the vote, this is not a one-off. We’ve been analysing the data from the local elections in England and the results are shocking as outlined in our new report, Local Elections 2026 – a wake-up call for Westminster.
The current system is failing the electorate, and multi-party politics is here to stay, so the real question is no longer simply how mainstream parties stop insurgent challengers. It is whether Britain’s political institutions are capable of adapting to a far more fragmented and volatile political age.
Emma Harrison is the Chief Executive of Make Votes Matter, the cross-party campaign for proportional representation
For much of the post-war era, British politics operated on a relatively simple assumption: governments changed, but the system itself remained stable. Power largely alternated between the Conservative Party and the Labour Party. Leaders came and went, majorities rose and fell, but the broader architecture of British politics remained remarkably durable.
That assumption now looks far less secure.
Across Europe, established parties have seen their dominance challenged by newer political movements that were often dismissed as temporary protest vehicles. In many cases, mainstream parties assumed public frustration would eventually dissipate and voters would return. Increasingly, that has not happened.
Britain is not immune from these trends. The rise of Reform UK reflects a broader political volatility that both major parties have struggled to address. Its support draws from disillusioned former Conservative voters, former Labour voters, non-voters and people who feel politically disconnected altogether. What unites many of these groups is not a coherent ideological programme, but a belief that Britain’s political system is no longer delivering for ordinary people.
That perception has been shaped by years of weak economic growth, declining trust in institutions, pressure on public services, high taxes, housing unaffordability and a wider sense of national stagnation. Voters may disagree on the causes, but many increasingly share the view that the status quo is not working.
For Labour, this creates obvious risks. A government seen as managing decline rather than delivering meaningful change could quickly lose public trust. But the challenge for the Conservative Party may be even more profound.
For decades, the Conservatives have often been the principal beneficiaries of Britain’s electoral system. First-past-the-post has historically helped consolidate the right-of-centre vote and convert relatively modest vote shares into parliamentary majorities. That assumption may no longer hold if the right becomes permanently fragmented.
One week ago in one of the most high-profile results of the entire election cycle, we saw the London Borough of Havering swing from a Conservative minority administration to Reform with a large majority of 71%. This overwhelming majority was secured with just 37.8% of the vote. This vote share was only slightly larger than the combined vote share of the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour (33.6%), who collectively won just two seats, with the Conservatives winning zero. A proportional result would have produced a No Overall Control council with Reform, Residents Association, and the Conservatives with the most seats.
The challenge for the Conservatives is that a political system designed around two dominant parties becomes much less predictable when voters become fluid and partisan loyalties weaken. Under those conditions, first-past-the-post can stop acting as a source of stability and instead produce increasingly distorted outcomes.
This matters beyond simple party advantage. Electoral systems do not just determine who wins power, they shape how legitimate those victories appear and how effectively governments can govern once elected. When parties secure large majorities on increasingly narrow vote shares, the gap between parliamentary power and public consent begins to widen.
That creates a dangerous feedback loop. Governments elected with weak mandates often struggle to claim broad public legitimacy when making difficult decisions. Opposition parties, meanwhile, can point to distorted outcomes as evidence that the system itself is unfair. Voters who already feel alienated become even more cynical when election results appear disconnected from how people actually voted.
We are already seeing signs of this. Labour’s 2024 landslide produced enormous parliamentary power without anything close to overwhelming public support. At the same time, parties with millions of votes continue to find themselves dramatically under-represented. If that pattern becomes normal, elections may continue to deliver decisive-looking governments while deepening public dissatisfaction underneath the surface. Stability on paper can quickly become instability in practice.
The question for Conservatives is whether they continue defending an electoral model built for a political era that may be ending.
Electoral reform has often been treated as a cause of the centre-left, but growing fragmentation on the right may force Conservatives to think differently. If their long-term challenge is not simply defeating Labour, but competing in a more fractured political landscape, their relationship with electoral reform may need to evolve.
The 2024 General Election was the most disproportionate in history with Labour winning a landslide victory on 34% of the vote, this is not a one-off. We’ve been analysing the data from the local elections in England and the results are shocking as outlined in our new report, Local Elections 2026 – a wake-up call for Westminster.
The current system is failing the electorate, and multi-party politics is here to stay, so the real question is no longer simply how mainstream parties stop insurgent challengers. It is whether Britain’s political institutions are capable of adapting to a far more fragmented and volatile political age.