Cllr Matthew Goodwin-Freeman represents Hatch End Ward on Harrow Council.
Is this the turning point for the Conservatives?
Another set of elections, another victory against the odds, bucking the trend and winning for the Conservatives. In London, the Conservatives came out of polling day with more councillors than they went into it with for the first time since 2006 – and we all know what happened a few years later in 2010!
On May 7th, the Conservatives regained Westminster, held on to Reform-targets of Bromley, Bexley, Hillingdon, forced No Overall Control in Brent, Barnet, Enfield, Wandsworth, but most amazing of all, the gem of the night, the result in Harrow, where I am proud to have been re-elected with the largest increase in votes of any councillor.
Harrow has become the hub of Conservative renewal, to quote Kemi’s slogan. In 2022, Harrow was the only Conservative gain from Labour in the country, on that night where we lost Westminster, Wandsworth and saw the beginning of the end of Boris Johnson’s tenure.
Then again in 2024, Harrow delivered the largest swing towards Susan Hall during her London Mayoral bid. If only that had been replicated across London maybe we would have booted out the nightmare, knighted Mayor, Sadiq Khan. If only!
But most powerful, the General Election result saw Harrow East MP, Bob Blackman, returned with an increased majority and the only Conservative MP to get over 50 per cent of the vote. On a night when MPs lost with 10,000 – 20,000 vote majorities, we bucked the polls and won. Full credit to yours truly, who spent years planning and preparing the campaign before long nights of Chinese takeaways bundling leaflets!
Yet who knew the best was yet to come, perhaps a follow up edition needs publishing: the 2026 Local Elections in Harrow. Four years after the Conservatives gained control of Harrow Council against the odds with 31/55 councillors, they actually increased their majority to 41/55. Yes, that’s 41 Conservative councillors! Winning in safe Labour seats, overturning personal votes and popular Labour councillors discarded to the 1,498 Labour councillors handed their P45 by the electorate.
Now true, a lot of this is down to the multi-party world we live in, where votes now have a menu of candidates to pick from or, as we saw at the Count, many other boxes to protest in. Some of the split votes we saw would make no sense in a normal election – Reform/Green, Lib Dem / Independent single-Palestine-issue, Conservative / Labour! Clearly, the electorate is angry, especially if you were a Labour voter but just couldn’t bring yourself to vote for them this time. Sending that message to Number 10 by voting for any random candidate in the end allowed us to slip through the middle in many seats.
But this was also a result of hard work, stable governance and a track record of delivery over the last four years. When we took over Harrow from Labour in 2022 we were facing bankruptcy within 18 months (just without the note in the draw telling us there was no money left!) Through sound fiscal management and steady, honest political decisions, we have managed to turn this around, rebuild the reserves, whilst also deliver visible, impactful change in Harrow. We introduced the one hour free parking, the most generous in London. We’ve increased enforcement of fly-tipping and prosecutions are up by 706 per cent. We’ve dramatically increased investment into roads, pavements and filling those bloomin’ potholes. Reopened the phone lines. Open a face-to-face front desk for residents. Restructure and reorganise the Council. More green flag award parks. And more and more things.
So mix those two together, a track record of visible change and a falling Labour party in the polls, and you end up with the largest Conservative majority in London. And looking forwards, it makes sense.
Whilst the hype and the polls focus on Reform as the next Government in waiting, they factually are not. The Conservatives are His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition in Parliament, holding the Government to account and setting out that alternative. In many Council’s up and down the country, it is still a Labour vs Conservative battle, whilst Reform are growing and growing their numbers each cycle. Voters see that! And where Reform have taken control, it’s not been plain sailing. Kent? Worcestershire? Leicestershire? Nottingham? None of these I would consider as a textbook example of successful Reform administration.
As we inch closer and closer to the next General Election (despite Wes Streeting’s best attempts) voters will have to make a choice of trust. Do they trust Labour: no. Do they trust Reform: maybe. Are they willing to re-trust the Conservatives again: that’s harder to answer. The ‘14 years of Tory chaos’ smear is starting to wear thin, voters are fed up of blaming the past, so is the period of reflection and apology now over and voters now start muttering under their breath ‘maybe the Conservatives have changed?’ We will see.
But what is for certain, is that Harrow has once again bucked the trend. Won against the odds. And the message could not be clearer. If you want a blueprint to win, take a leaf out of our blue book. The door is always open!