Dr Austen Morgan is a barrister at 33 Bedford Row Chambers. He is the author of ‘Pretence: why the United Kingdom needs a written constitution’, London 2023.
Prof. Sir John Curtice, the English psephologist in Scotland, has been reporting the existence of nationalist first ministers in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh, with a cheeky countenance. The prospective breakup of the United Kingdom (‘UK’) – mercifully – is more complicated, and contains within it the seeds of constitutionally securing our multi-national state.
There are the following facts:
- Michelle O’Neill, from an IRA family, became Northern Ireland’s first minister in February 2024, with Sinn Féin taking 27 of the 90 assembly seats,
- after 7 May, Rhun ap Iorwerth became Wales’ first minister, with Plaid Cymru taking 43 of the 96 Senedd seats; and
- also after 7 May, John Swinney became Scotland’s first minister again (the nationalists have been in government since 2007), with the SNP taking 58 of the 129 parliament seats.
The following points need to be appreciated. First, these are all minority administrations, with respectively 30, 45 and 45 per cent of the seats.
Second, Northern Ireland’s unique constitution. There were 37 unionists elected to 35 nationalists, but Sinn Féin nominated the first minister as the largest party; the post of course – as the republicans had always maintained – is held jointly with the deputy first minister, Emma Little-Pengelly, leader of the democratic unionist party with 25 seats.
Third, Plaid Cymru and the SNP have tended to eschew the company of Sinn Féin, because of the violence; this, admittedly, has been receding recently in Edinburgh.
And fourth, Plaid Cymru – unlike the other two parties – has stated it is not working for independence. It wants to do Welsh government better, before asking its people to take the risks of separate statehood.
The UK evolved as a unitary state, with England acquiring Wales (1535), Scotland (1707) and then Ireland (1801). This became the centre of the British empire. Part of that story is the loss of the Irish state (26 of 32 counties) from 1922. And contemporary separatists should consider it’s failures between the 1920s and 1960s.
The Republic of Ireland (‘ROI’) remains attached to the UK: the common travel area denies it control of immigration (and the EU subjects it to freedom of movement); the new state did not legislate for a separate nationality until 1956; London also guarantees its security and defence (a UK state secret), despite the ROI’s gestures towards neutrality; and George Osborne bailed out the Irish banks in 2010, to protect a common financial system.
Minority nationalism began as a twentieth-century irritant on the UK body politic.
The Northern Ireland parliament (1921-72) was part of the Irish question, and never about the decentralization of the UK (a desirable objective). Harold Wilson and James Callaghan failed to devolve power in the 1970s. Tony Blair succeeded in his first administration: Government of Wales Act 1998; Scotland Act 1998; Northern Ireland Act 1998. Ironically, new labour said devolution was about killing separatism – what could go wrong?
In the 2024 general election, the people – or peoples – elected the following minorities to Westminster: nine Northern Ireland nationalists; nine SNP; and four Plaid Cymru. That leaves 628 MPs, who are unionist to some extent or other. Yet, these tiddlers – with the seven Sinn Féiners abstaining – are wagging the UK dog, with their post-election talk of separation, referendums and, even, joining the EU as new micro-states.
The populations of the UK (rounded up) are: Northern Ireland 1.9 million; Wales 3.2 million; Scotland 5.5 million; and England 58.6 million. The wannabe micro-states have 10.6 million (not all being nationalists) of the UK’s current 69.3 million people – 15 per cent, which remains a small minority in anyone’s book.
The 1945 UN charter – here comes some international law – includes the purpose: ‘To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples…’ (article 1(2)); there is also the principle: ‘All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state…’ (article 2(4)).
The UK has its territorial integrity and political independence as a state, and not even Sir Kier Starmer and Lord Hermer (with or without Phil Shiner) would accept that minority nationalists are entitled to self-determination.
In 2023, I published Pretence, with a portrait of Charles I on trial in Westminster hall on the cover. The pretence was our constitutional monarchy of 1688/89, and the managing of our integrated executive, legislative and judicial branches of government with an – exceptional – unwritten (or uncodified) constitution.
My big idea today is: a referendum (yes, another one!) on a written constitution for the whole UK, which affirms territorial integrity and political independence. That would see off the breakup of the UK, and any risk of regional referendums in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland.
But – turning to devolution as a political perspective – I also favour the federalising of the UK, to make it like, not just the United States, but also Canada and Australia, and a host of former UK colonies and other states.
Against me are the political constitutionalists, lovers of A.V. Dicey’s parliamentary sovereignty, who – I imagine – would simply argue for the scrapping of the devolved governments. There is already an argument from the Scotland Act 2016 that that could not be done legally: section 1.
Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh would administer states (in my scenario), but these would be subordinate to the UK. England might also become such a state. True, more power – but also responsibility – would flow to these capitals, including that their people would pay (or not) for what their politicians desire.
These subordinate states, however, would be locked to a federal UK government in London (most likely), with the house of lords as a senate of the regions rather than a democratic threat to the house of commons.
Now for the politics. Plaid Cymru is not ready for such a constitutional fight, and draws on deep breaths of cultural nationalism.
Sinn Féin is instinctively Anglophobic. But the UK may rely upon the 1998 Belfast agreement (which does not provide for a united Ireland). A condition precedent for the UK was legislation providing for a border poll and an agreement between London and Dublin. But these events may never happen. A condition precedent for the ROI was a constitutional amendment, removing the territorial claim as a constitutional imperative. That happened.
Scotland is likely to be the greatest irritant. It had a referendum in 2014, and the nationalists lost. Edinburgh cannot legislate for a second one. London should not copy David Cameron, as advised by Ciaran Martin then of the cabinet office. No can mean no. John Swinney has lost the argument of a SNP majority (65 seats). But he has replaced it with a desperate need to beat a Farage government in 2029.
Labour (for what it is worth), the conservatives and liberal democrats remain generally unionist, even if they lack an affinity with Ulster unionists. But Reform UK has, since 7 May, 34 members in Cardiff (as the official opposition) and 17 members in Edinburgh (along side labour, conservative and liberal democrat groups).
There could be no better test of the political coherence of the Farage populists, than the securing of the territorial integrity of the UK through Senedd Cymru and the Scottish parliament during the current administrations.
Dr Austen Morgan is a barrister at 33 Bedford Row Chambers. He is the author of ‘Pretence: why the United Kingdom needs a written constitution’, London 2023.
Prof. Sir John Curtice, the English psephologist in Scotland, has been reporting the existence of nationalist first ministers in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh, with a cheeky countenance. The prospective breakup of the United Kingdom (‘UK’) – mercifully – is more complicated, and contains within it the seeds of constitutionally securing our multi-national state.
There are the following facts:
The following points need to be appreciated. First, these are all minority administrations, with respectively 30, 45 and 45 per cent of the seats.
Second, Northern Ireland’s unique constitution. There were 37 unionists elected to 35 nationalists, but Sinn Féin nominated the first minister as the largest party; the post of course – as the republicans had always maintained – is held jointly with the deputy first minister, Emma Little-Pengelly, leader of the democratic unionist party with 25 seats.
Third, Plaid Cymru and the SNP have tended to eschew the company of Sinn Féin, because of the violence; this, admittedly, has been receding recently in Edinburgh.
And fourth, Plaid Cymru – unlike the other two parties – has stated it is not working for independence. It wants to do Welsh government better, before asking its people to take the risks of separate statehood.
The UK evolved as a unitary state, with England acquiring Wales (1535), Scotland (1707) and then Ireland (1801). This became the centre of the British empire. Part of that story is the loss of the Irish state (26 of 32 counties) from 1922. And contemporary separatists should consider it’s failures between the 1920s and 1960s.
The Republic of Ireland (‘ROI’) remains attached to the UK: the common travel area denies it control of immigration (and the EU subjects it to freedom of movement); the new state did not legislate for a separate nationality until 1956; London also guarantees its security and defence (a UK state secret), despite the ROI’s gestures towards neutrality; and George Osborne bailed out the Irish banks in 2010, to protect a common financial system.
Minority nationalism began as a twentieth-century irritant on the UK body politic.
The Northern Ireland parliament (1921-72) was part of the Irish question, and never about the decentralization of the UK (a desirable objective). Harold Wilson and James Callaghan failed to devolve power in the 1970s. Tony Blair succeeded in his first administration: Government of Wales Act 1998; Scotland Act 1998; Northern Ireland Act 1998. Ironically, new labour said devolution was about killing separatism – what could go wrong?
In the 2024 general election, the people – or peoples – elected the following minorities to Westminster: nine Northern Ireland nationalists; nine SNP; and four Plaid Cymru. That leaves 628 MPs, who are unionist to some extent or other. Yet, these tiddlers – with the seven Sinn Féiners abstaining – are wagging the UK dog, with their post-election talk of separation, referendums and, even, joining the EU as new micro-states.
The populations of the UK (rounded up) are: Northern Ireland 1.9 million; Wales 3.2 million; Scotland 5.5 million; and England 58.6 million. The wannabe micro-states have 10.6 million (not all being nationalists) of the UK’s current 69.3 million people – 15 per cent, which remains a small minority in anyone’s book.
The 1945 UN charter – here comes some international law – includes the purpose: ‘To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples…’ (article 1(2)); there is also the principle: ‘All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state…’ (article 2(4)).
The UK has its territorial integrity and political independence as a state, and not even Sir Kier Starmer and Lord Hermer (with or without Phil Shiner) would accept that minority nationalists are entitled to self-determination.
In 2023, I published Pretence, with a portrait of Charles I on trial in Westminster hall on the cover. The pretence was our constitutional monarchy of 1688/89, and the managing of our integrated executive, legislative and judicial branches of government with an – exceptional – unwritten (or uncodified) constitution.
My big idea today is: a referendum (yes, another one!) on a written constitution for the whole UK, which affirms territorial integrity and political independence. That would see off the breakup of the UK, and any risk of regional referendums in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland.
But – turning to devolution as a political perspective – I also favour the federalising of the UK, to make it like, not just the United States, but also Canada and Australia, and a host of former UK colonies and other states.
Against me are the political constitutionalists, lovers of A.V. Dicey’s parliamentary sovereignty, who – I imagine – would simply argue for the scrapping of the devolved governments. There is already an argument from the Scotland Act 2016 that that could not be done legally: section 1.
Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh would administer states (in my scenario), but these would be subordinate to the UK. England might also become such a state. True, more power – but also responsibility – would flow to these capitals, including that their people would pay (or not) for what their politicians desire.
These subordinate states, however, would be locked to a federal UK government in London (most likely), with the house of lords as a senate of the regions rather than a democratic threat to the house of commons.
Now for the politics. Plaid Cymru is not ready for such a constitutional fight, and draws on deep breaths of cultural nationalism.
Sinn Féin is instinctively Anglophobic. But the UK may rely upon the 1998 Belfast agreement (which does not provide for a united Ireland). A condition precedent for the UK was legislation providing for a border poll and an agreement between London and Dublin. But these events may never happen. A condition precedent for the ROI was a constitutional amendment, removing the territorial claim as a constitutional imperative. That happened.
Scotland is likely to be the greatest irritant. It had a referendum in 2014, and the nationalists lost. Edinburgh cannot legislate for a second one. London should not copy David Cameron, as advised by Ciaran Martin then of the cabinet office. No can mean no. John Swinney has lost the argument of a SNP majority (65 seats). But he has replaced it with a desperate need to beat a Farage government in 2029.
Labour (for what it is worth), the conservatives and liberal democrats remain generally unionist, even if they lack an affinity with Ulster unionists. But Reform UK has, since 7 May, 34 members in Cardiff (as the official opposition) and 17 members in Edinburgh (along side labour, conservative and liberal democrat groups).
There could be no better test of the political coherence of the Farage populists, than the securing of the territorial integrity of the UK through Senedd Cymru and the Scottish parliament during the current administrations.