Tolga Inanc is an approved Parliamentary Candidate for the Conservative Party.
Despite claims that parliamentary majorities are harder in a multi-party system, they remain attainable for the Conservatives.
To achieve it, we must encourage high-turnout elections; move from ‘turnout’ to persuasion campaigns; and leverage multi-party politics to our advantage.
Conventional political wisdom says high-turnout elections are more beneficial for centre-left parties. For example, students are less likely to vote and less likely to vote Conservative.
Fragmented opposition blocs under the First Past the Post (FPTP) system and voter inertia for incumbent parties allowed either the Conservatives or Labour to secure commanding majorities in Parliament without equivalent vote shares. Labour’s 171-seat majority in 2024, won on 33.7 per cent of the vote, was only 1.6 per cent higher than its 2019 vote share, when the Conservatives secured an 80-seat majority.
With five parties commanding sizeable vote shares, the Conservatives should reject conventional political wisdom and encourage high-turnout elections. Gaining an additional 3-4 percentage points in the vote share can translate into significant gains under FPTP, rather than competing with four other national parties for the same pool of votes. To do that, we need to persuade more people to vote.
More in Common research after last week’s local elections showed the next party of government could win a majority with a national vote share in the high 20%. Aiming for a 35-40 per cent vote share for one party may no longer be realistic nor necessary. In a crowded political marketplace, the Conservatives cannot rely on a shrinking loyal base; we must broaden our appeal and communicate beyond traditional strongholds – as we did successfully in 2019 by flipping the Red Wall.
Multi-party politics also creates new tactical voting opportunities. More in Common polling in February found 80 per cent of Reform supporters would vote against Labour over defeating the Conservatives in a General Election – only 12 per cent would vote against the Conservatives. Same polling showed 52 per cent and 56 per cent of Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters would vote against Reform respectively. The local elections showed tactical voting cutting in unexpected directions, including Labour and Lib Dem supporters voting Conservative in areas to block Reform gains.
With more parties competing nationally, the Conservatives have greater scope to capture tactical votes: “vote Reform get SNP”, “vote Labour get Green”, “vote Lib Dem get Reform”. This dynamic is strongest where a party is already the main challenger – a position that favours the Conservatives after the 2024 election. The Conservatives finished second in 293 seats, compared with 105 for Labour, 98 for Reform, and 27 for the Lib Dems.
Sound policies and values-based campaigning must come first, but voters increasingly want to know what result their vote is likely, or unlikely, to produce.
In a multi-party contest, victory will depend less on mobilising a fixed base and more on persuading fluid voters and occasional non-voters. Focaldata analysis of the 2024 elections showed 15 per cent of Conservative voters in the 2019 election stayed at home in 2024, with 11 per cent voting Labour, 6 per cent Lib Dems, and 20 per cent Reform. Furthermore, a meaningful share of previous non-voters turned up to vote in 2024, with 15 per cent of people who did not vote in 2019 voting in 2024 (6 per cent of whom voted Labour and 2 per cent each for the other main parties).
Persuading voters in a noisy and fragmented media environment will require treating all 650 constituencies like individual by-elections: focusing on salient local concerns. The question of who runs the government will be a key factor for how people vote, so we have to reach more voters and take ownership of local issues.
That requires not just setting out the best policies but explaining why they are the best. The post-war age of turnout-maximisation is over, giving way to the era of persuasion. Neither major party can rely on a stable electoral bloc to vote regardless. Success now depends on why Conservative policies matter to voters who feel politically homeless or predisposed to not vote – especially those cynical towards traditional parties or overwhelmed by choice.
While digital campaigning and algorithm-dependent messaging matters, authentic doorstep conversations cut through effectively. Parties that combine sophisticated data on voting intentions with in-person engagement will be best placed to persuade voters who no longer feel attached to any political tribe.
In this new world, the Conservatives must do more than energise loyalists: they must frame elections as meaningful choices between likely outcomes in each seat, and why Conservative policies matter. We can win back votes from all directions, including previous non-voters, and gain the edge through high turnout.
Tolga Inanc is an approved Parliamentary Candidate for the Conservative Party.
Despite claims that parliamentary majorities are harder in a multi-party system, they remain attainable for the Conservatives.
To achieve it, we must encourage high-turnout elections; move from ‘turnout’ to persuasion campaigns; and leverage multi-party politics to our advantage.
Conventional political wisdom says high-turnout elections are more beneficial for centre-left parties. For example, students are less likely to vote and less likely to vote Conservative.
Fragmented opposition blocs under the First Past the Post (FPTP) system and voter inertia for incumbent parties allowed either the Conservatives or Labour to secure commanding majorities in Parliament without equivalent vote shares. Labour’s 171-seat majority in 2024, won on 33.7 per cent of the vote, was only 1.6 per cent higher than its 2019 vote share, when the Conservatives secured an 80-seat majority.
With five parties commanding sizeable vote shares, the Conservatives should reject conventional political wisdom and encourage high-turnout elections. Gaining an additional 3-4 percentage points in the vote share can translate into significant gains under FPTP, rather than competing with four other national parties for the same pool of votes. To do that, we need to persuade more people to vote.
More in Common research after last week’s local elections showed the next party of government could win a majority with a national vote share in the high 20%. Aiming for a 35-40 per cent vote share for one party may no longer be realistic nor necessary. In a crowded political marketplace, the Conservatives cannot rely on a shrinking loyal base; we must broaden our appeal and communicate beyond traditional strongholds – as we did successfully in 2019 by flipping the Red Wall.
Multi-party politics also creates new tactical voting opportunities. More in Common polling in February found 80 per cent of Reform supporters would vote against Labour over defeating the Conservatives in a General Election – only 12 per cent would vote against the Conservatives. Same polling showed 52 per cent and 56 per cent of Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters would vote against Reform respectively. The local elections showed tactical voting cutting in unexpected directions, including Labour and Lib Dem supporters voting Conservative in areas to block Reform gains.
With more parties competing nationally, the Conservatives have greater scope to capture tactical votes: “vote Reform get SNP”, “vote Labour get Green”, “vote Lib Dem get Reform”. This dynamic is strongest where a party is already the main challenger – a position that favours the Conservatives after the 2024 election. The Conservatives finished second in 293 seats, compared with 105 for Labour, 98 for Reform, and 27 for the Lib Dems.
Sound policies and values-based campaigning must come first, but voters increasingly want to know what result their vote is likely, or unlikely, to produce.
In a multi-party contest, victory will depend less on mobilising a fixed base and more on persuading fluid voters and occasional non-voters. Focaldata analysis of the 2024 elections showed 15 per cent of Conservative voters in the 2019 election stayed at home in 2024, with 11 per cent voting Labour, 6 per cent Lib Dems, and 20 per cent Reform. Furthermore, a meaningful share of previous non-voters turned up to vote in 2024, with 15 per cent of people who did not vote in 2019 voting in 2024 (6 per cent of whom voted Labour and 2 per cent each for the other main parties).
Persuading voters in a noisy and fragmented media environment will require treating all 650 constituencies like individual by-elections: focusing on salient local concerns. The question of who runs the government will be a key factor for how people vote, so we have to reach more voters and take ownership of local issues.
That requires not just setting out the best policies but explaining why they are the best. The post-war age of turnout-maximisation is over, giving way to the era of persuasion. Neither major party can rely on a stable electoral bloc to vote regardless. Success now depends on why Conservative policies matter to voters who feel politically homeless or predisposed to not vote – especially those cynical towards traditional parties or overwhelmed by choice.
While digital campaigning and algorithm-dependent messaging matters, authentic doorstep conversations cut through effectively. Parties that combine sophisticated data on voting intentions with in-person engagement will be best placed to persuade voters who no longer feel attached to any political tribe.
In this new world, the Conservatives must do more than energise loyalists: they must frame elections as meaningful choices between likely outcomes in each seat, and why Conservative policies matter. We can win back votes from all directions, including previous non-voters, and gain the edge through high turnout.