Fredrick Ostlund is Chairman of Moderaterna i Storbritannien (Swedish Conservatives in the UK).
History does not forgive nations that mistake naivety for virtue and weakness for wisdom. For a decade, Sweden made both errors and it paid a terrible price.
In September 2022, Swedes elected a Conservative-led government with one instruction: fix this. What Sweden learned, Britain would do well to note.
Lesson One: Immigration without integration is not compassion.
Immigration that leads to employment, tax revenues and growth is an asset. Sweden’s failure was not immigration itself — it was importing dependency into a labour market structurally incapable of absorbing it.
Sweden ended labour migration from non-Nordic countries in 1972. Trade unions controlled immigration policy, restricting foreign workers, imposing a high minimum wage and rigid dismissal rules. Employers pay social security contributions of 31.42% of gross salary with no cap. This makes the Swedish labour market extremely difficult for entry level opportunities.
Into this immovable structure, the left poured an unstoppable tide. In 2015 alone, 163,000 sought asylum. Total asylum-linked intake reached 8–9 per cent of Sweden’s 2012 population. Nearly one person in ten — not to a labour market, but to a welfare system. For young men locked out of employment, the gang offered what the state could not: purpose, income and belonging.
The Conservative government ended permanent asylum permits — standard since 1984. Time-limited permits became the legal default. Family reunification tightened. Annual applications fell from 163,000 to approximately 20,000, per Migrationsverket (Swedish Immigration Authority).
Britain is not a spectator. Between 2020 and 2024, net migration totaled 2.3 million — 3.5 per cent of the population, per ONS. Total employment grew by just 741,000 over the same period, per ONS (series MGRZ). More than three long-term arrivals for every net new person in work.
Lesson Two: If you surrender Law and Order, watch civilisation retreat.
Fatal shootings rose from 17 in 2012 to a record 63 in 2022, per Brå (Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention). Confirmed shootings reached 391 — the highest ever, per Polisen (Swedish Police Authority). In 2019 alone, 257 bomb attacks — a 60 per cent increase in a year. Hand grenades detonated regularly in the streets of what was once one of the safest cities in Europe. The gangs went further still — infiltrating the welfare system itself, siphoning public funds on an industrial scale.
The Conservative government understood what its predecessors refused to accept: criminals respond to consequences, not counselling. Police funding increased substantially. Surveillance powers expanded. Sentences toughened. Stop-and-search zones introduced in gang-affected areas. Criminal assets — cars, jewellery, cash — confiscated.
The initial results: 92 cases of deadly violence in 2024 — the lowest since 2014, per Reuters.
Now look closer to home. Knife crime reached 49,489 offences in 2023, per the House of Commons Library. The response: a summit with a Hollywood actor. Sweden tried sentiment for a decade. The gangs were unmoved.
Lesson Three: No Nation was ever empowered by moral satisfaction.
Four nuclear reactors closed between 2019 and 2020, dramatically weakening the source of stable base power. A 2016 Net-Zero commitment declared “100 per cent renewables” Sweden’s destiny. Then the 2022 energy crisis arrived. “If we hadn’t shut down half of nuclear power, we wouldn’t have these problems,” said Prime Minister Kristersson, who took office in 2022 — a verdict on his predecessors. A generation had surrendered energy policy to identity politics and the fanatical environmentalism of the Greta Thunberg school — where gesture matters more than consequence.
The Conservative government abolished the renewables-only target, enacted new nuclear legislation and authorised construction on new sites for the first time in decades. Fuel taxes on petrol and diesel were cut significantly. The Air Passenger Duty (APD) was abolished entirely.
Britain, look in the mirror. Last coal plants closing. New nuclear delayed. New oil exploration banned. The grid dependent on the wind. Sweden ran this experiment. The verdict is not ambiguous.
Lesson Four: The price of unreadiness may end up paid in blood.
Between 2012 and 2022, successive left-wing governments dismantled Sweden’s armed forces. In December 2012, the Supreme Commander declared Sweden could defend itself for one week. The country once capable of mobilising 800,000 men had been reduced by political vanity to a footnote.
The Conservative government acted. Selective conscription restored — targeting the most capable from each cohort. Defence spending reached SEK 138 billion for 2025 — doubling since 2020. Sweden committed to 5 per cent of GDP on defence and joined NATO in March 2024 — ending two centuries of non-alignment.
Westminster, take note. Defence spending below 2.5 per cent of GDP. Do not wait until your Supreme Commander tells you he has a week.
The Crossroads: September 2026
The damage of a decade is not undone in four years. Restoring Sweden’s social cohesion, security and industrial strength will take a generation.
Sweden’s election in September presents two futures. One continues four Conservative years — controlled immigration, a resourced police, nuclear energy, credible defence. The other leads back to 2022. The left-wing Green Party will block all new nuclear expansion and revert to the generous refugee immigration that created the crisis. The Communist Left Party has opposed every Conservative reform. The Social Democrats remain deeply uneasy with the new policy direction.
Every achievement is reversible. In a single afternoon in September.
Conservatives in the UK and Sweden can learn from each other. We are united by a common belief in individual freedom, order and responsibility, and the beneficial power of free markets. And for Conservatives around the world, it falls to us to clear up the mess left by flawed leftwing doctrine.
If you know a Swede in Britain — please urge them to vote in September. Sweden’s future depends on it. Postal voting materials are available from available from June.
Fredrick Ostlund is Chairman of Moderaterna i Storbritannien (Swedish Conservatives in the UK).
History does not forgive nations that mistake naivety for virtue and weakness for wisdom. For a decade, Sweden made both errors and it paid a terrible price.
In September 2022, Swedes elected a Conservative-led government with one instruction: fix this. What Sweden learned, Britain would do well to note.
Lesson One: Immigration without integration is not compassion.
Immigration that leads to employment, tax revenues and growth is an asset. Sweden’s failure was not immigration itself — it was importing dependency into a labour market structurally incapable of absorbing it.
Sweden ended labour migration from non-Nordic countries in 1972. Trade unions controlled immigration policy, restricting foreign workers, imposing a high minimum wage and rigid dismissal rules. Employers pay social security contributions of 31.42% of gross salary with no cap. This makes the Swedish labour market extremely difficult for entry level opportunities.
Into this immovable structure, the left poured an unstoppable tide. In 2015 alone, 163,000 sought asylum. Total asylum-linked intake reached 8–9 per cent of Sweden’s 2012 population. Nearly one person in ten — not to a labour market, but to a welfare system. For young men locked out of employment, the gang offered what the state could not: purpose, income and belonging.
The Conservative government ended permanent asylum permits — standard since 1984. Time-limited permits became the legal default. Family reunification tightened. Annual applications fell from 163,000 to approximately 20,000, per Migrationsverket (Swedish Immigration Authority).
Britain is not a spectator. Between 2020 and 2024, net migration totaled 2.3 million — 3.5 per cent of the population, per ONS. Total employment grew by just 741,000 over the same period, per ONS (series MGRZ). More than three long-term arrivals for every net new person in work.
Lesson Two: If you surrender Law and Order, watch civilisation retreat.
Fatal shootings rose from 17 in 2012 to a record 63 in 2022, per Brå (Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention). Confirmed shootings reached 391 — the highest ever, per Polisen (Swedish Police Authority). In 2019 alone, 257 bomb attacks — a 60 per cent increase in a year. Hand grenades detonated regularly in the streets of what was once one of the safest cities in Europe. The gangs went further still — infiltrating the welfare system itself, siphoning public funds on an industrial scale.
The Conservative government understood what its predecessors refused to accept: criminals respond to consequences, not counselling. Police funding increased substantially. Surveillance powers expanded. Sentences toughened. Stop-and-search zones introduced in gang-affected areas. Criminal assets — cars, jewellery, cash — confiscated.
The initial results: 92 cases of deadly violence in 2024 — the lowest since 2014, per Reuters.
Now look closer to home. Knife crime reached 49,489 offences in 2023, per the House of Commons Library. The response: a summit with a Hollywood actor. Sweden tried sentiment for a decade. The gangs were unmoved.
Lesson Three: No Nation was ever empowered by moral satisfaction.
Four nuclear reactors closed between 2019 and 2020, dramatically weakening the source of stable base power. A 2016 Net-Zero commitment declared “100 per cent renewables” Sweden’s destiny. Then the 2022 energy crisis arrived. “If we hadn’t shut down half of nuclear power, we wouldn’t have these problems,” said Prime Minister Kristersson, who took office in 2022 — a verdict on his predecessors. A generation had surrendered energy policy to identity politics and the fanatical environmentalism of the Greta Thunberg school — where gesture matters more than consequence.
The Conservative government abolished the renewables-only target, enacted new nuclear legislation and authorised construction on new sites for the first time in decades. Fuel taxes on petrol and diesel were cut significantly. The Air Passenger Duty (APD) was abolished entirely.
Britain, look in the mirror. Last coal plants closing. New nuclear delayed. New oil exploration banned. The grid dependent on the wind. Sweden ran this experiment. The verdict is not ambiguous.
Lesson Four: The price of unreadiness may end up paid in blood.
Between 2012 and 2022, successive left-wing governments dismantled Sweden’s armed forces. In December 2012, the Supreme Commander declared Sweden could defend itself for one week. The country once capable of mobilising 800,000 men had been reduced by political vanity to a footnote.
The Conservative government acted. Selective conscription restored — targeting the most capable from each cohort. Defence spending reached SEK 138 billion for 2025 — doubling since 2020. Sweden committed to 5 per cent of GDP on defence and joined NATO in March 2024 — ending two centuries of non-alignment.
Westminster, take note. Defence spending below 2.5 per cent of GDP. Do not wait until your Supreme Commander tells you he has a week.
The Crossroads: September 2026
The damage of a decade is not undone in four years. Restoring Sweden’s social cohesion, security and industrial strength will take a generation.
Sweden’s election in September presents two futures. One continues four Conservative years — controlled immigration, a resourced police, nuclear energy, credible defence. The other leads back to 2022. The left-wing Green Party will block all new nuclear expansion and revert to the generous refugee immigration that created the crisis. The Communist Left Party has opposed every Conservative reform. The Social Democrats remain deeply uneasy with the new policy direction.
Every achievement is reversible. In a single afternoon in September.
Conservatives in the UK and Sweden can learn from each other. We are united by a common belief in individual freedom, order and responsibility, and the beneficial power of free markets. And for Conservatives around the world, it falls to us to clear up the mess left by flawed leftwing doctrine.
If you know a Swede in Britain — please urge them to vote in September. Sweden’s future depends on it. Postal voting materials are available from available from June.