“If the premise is ‘chuck out the ones who have no impact’ then she’s got a lot of scope”
This Tory barb about the current shadow cabinet has been the sort of sentiment that has been palpable in recent weeks, the feeling that Kemi Badenoch needs a set of fresher faces on her team.
I have reflected that sentiment recently, since it has come from many places.
If I ever have a theory, and I have many, I like to road test them. And in recent days I may have tested one to destruction. It’s often a useful exercise in politics to subject your convictions to intense scrutiny and see if they still hold up.
I was coming to the conclusion that, optically and strategically, a little shuffle at the top might do what some members, readers, journalists, MPs and frankly, members of the shadow Cabinet want which is present a new team, not hindered by past government roles and under this new management. Run out some fresh blood, lose a little ‘dead wood’, keep looking forward two years not letting people obsess about two years ago.
The same senior Tory who discussed ‘scope’ with me was clinical about which people though they liked might be sacrificed ‘for the greater good’
“Priti is carrying the immigration baggage. Mel was just welded to the Rishi era, and Chris is trying too hard. That’s three great offices of state. I like all of them, and to be honest there’s others who seem anonymous at best but if Kemi wanted room to bring on the new lot, that’s where she should make some space, and reshuffle from there”
It’s a theory that has a growing set of advocates, and some of them have said so on this site. It is also worth noting it is a theory that sometimes comes most vociferously from supporters of those who might ‘benefit’ from such a move.
I also had time for the idea that with May’s elections out of the way, and not a resounding success, it was one way of signalling a phase two of the renewal plan. That’s if you dismiss the Lee Cain scenario that the problem is with the boss, and to be honest I don’t find many takers for that view.
Kemi Badenoch has always stressed she has a team, and she’s managing a team. She shares credit with them and offers people to look at the team, not least to highlight the one man band label that has, and still does, among Reform’s critics, dogged Nigel Farage. But all foootball manager rotate their team from time to time. It’s still a team.
However before the recent elections she publicly ruled out any changes. Which if anything pushed a number of voices to advocate even harder that she should mix things up a bit.
Well I’ve tested it with as many as I could find and I think it’s an idea, for the future.
Good theory, not yet.
So what changed my mind? Well, a number of people making a number of good points, and interestingly not those whose role it is to express the thoughts of the Leader’s office. We know where she stands on this, she’s said so.
First rule is accepting that actually nobody but journalists really like reshuffles. They disappoint many more people than they lift, and whatever the reasons for having one, initially you lose “horsepower”. It takes time for people to bed into new roles, especially if it is their first. Now that is true of any reshuffle at any time so cannot be a barrier to them happening, but churn always has a short term destabilising effect. Whatever wattage you are getting before, even if that’s the problem you want to correct, is diminished for a period after the switch.
Second, “did you ever really go to a concert to see the backing singers? “
This shadow Cabinet member was sanguine about how the party is received by press and public. The fact is, they argue, that the Leader is currently the main event, and was always going to be in such a period of opposition. It’s not that her team aren’t firing on all cylinders, though some aren’t, but that nobody cares, yet. If they can people want to hear from Kemi, and the backing singers will just have to deal with that, but it’s not on them that they aren’t the main attraction, and doesn’t necessarily mean they are failing.
“She’s ignoring some decent talent that lots of people see being wasted right now”
This from an advocate for the new generation, which rather ignores that a number of them were closer to Robert Jenrick than Kemi Badenoch but have not, and seem to have no intention of, following his lead now.
And are they being ‘wasted’?
Some of the new intake – and the names Lam, Rankin, Stephenson, Paul and Cocking often crop up – are talked about possibly because even without a shadow cabinet role they’ve managed to get noticed, and there’s a legitimate question of whether you need three years in a role to get across the brief. It’s a balance – you need long enough to know what you are talking about and room to make a few rookie mistakes but not so long that by the time it might be more relevant you yourself look ‘old hat’.
But possibly the most convincing argument for not doing anything yet is the fact that in opposition you place, and play, your pieces to match their government counterparts.
Right now, who is going to bet that any of the current Cabinet will be in their current role by the end of this year. Whatever happens in the Labour civil war, the Opposition shouldn’t interfere, and simply adapt to what emerges at the end of it all.
The fact is the most likely reshuffle to happen first isn’t a Tory one at all.