Georgiana Bristol is Chief Executive of the Jobs Foundation
As wannabe-Cabinet Ministers and the obligatory media pack have decamped en-masse from Westminster to Makerfield over the past six weeks to see whether the so-called King of the North makes it in his quest to return to Westminster, you’d be forgiven for not knowing that 333 miles further north, up the M6 and the A90, another by-election was taking place.
Whilst Keir Starmer was all but banished from joining Andy Burnham’s campaign to retain Josh Simons’ former constituency, Kemi Badenoch was leading the charge for the Conservatives to re-take the Aberdeen South constituency for the Conservatives, visiting three times over the campaign.
In the previous two by-elections of this Parliament of Gorton & Denton and Runcorn, the Conservatives managed to secure just 1.9 and 7.1 per cent of the vote, respectively. In Aberdeen South, this was a comparably miraculous 50 per cent, with Douglas Lumsden winning the seat from the SNP.
For all the jubilation around the victory, it would be a mistake to paint this as the first harbinger of the Conservative’s march back into Government, but a remarkable victory this nonetheless is.
Yes, the SNP have been scarred by the unedifying spectacle of Mr Murrell’s embezzling of hundreds of thousands of pounds of party members money to spend on motorhomes and luxury pens. And yes, Scottish Labour have been all but written out of the picture by the unpopularity of the Labour Government in London.
When I was in Aberdeen last month, a taxi driver – always a reliable indicator of public opinion – told me, “I’ve never voted Conservative – and I hate the Conservatives – but this time they’ve got my vote”.
He went on to tell me not about the misfortunes and missteps of the SNP or Labour, but instead how Aberdeen, and the wider energy sector across the country, has been left behind by Government action and inaction, and how the Conservatives have understood these issues and pledged tangible actions to help the industry stay afoot.
Aberdeen’s economy has long been dominated by the oil and gas sector in the North Sea. Drilling has supported tens of thousands of high-paid, high-skilled jobs directly in the industry, and many more across the wider supply chain. Moreover, oil and gas provides billions of pounds of revenue to the Exchequer, and helps support the energy security of the UK in the volatile geopolitical times that we live in.
But the sector currently stands on its knees, with the Robert Gordon University’s Energy Transition Institute estimating that roughly 400 jobs are being lost every two weeks. The Port of Aberdeen, where revenues are tied to oil and gas, recorded a 20 per cent drop in Platform Supply Vessels in the six months to late 2025. And the Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce, whose business confidence benchmarks previously sat in the top ten per cent on virtually every measure, now describes the city as being “without doubt bottom of the league.”
Two policy decisions sit at the heart of this decline. The Energy Profits Levy (EPL), extended by the current Government to 78 per cent and running to 2030, has become so punitive that energy companies can face effective tax rates of over 100 per cent on new projects. Combined with the ban on new exploration licences, investment has been stripped out. One operator told us for our recent Cliff Edge report that they would still invest in oil and gas, just “somewhere more stable, like Nigeria.”
To fix this, and keep good jobs in Aberdeen, our report called on the Government to grant new licences for North Sea oil exploration, scrap the EPL immediately, and develop a concrete transition plan that supports domestic oil and gas production for as long as it takes for renewables to be genuinely ready to replace it.
As Shadow Energy Secretary, Claire Coutinho has forcefully made this case. Wes Streeting has pledged to grant new licences in the North Sea if he becomes Prime Minister, and Andy Burnham has said that he has an “open mind” on further exploration.
It’s correct that drilling more in the North Sea won’t have a material impact on prices paid by UK consumers. But ensuring continued investment will make sure that jobs and tax revenue stay in the UK – rather than Nigeria – and will help keep the energy supply chain afloat as we continue to move towards renewables.
Whilst the impact of energy policy is felt more keenly on the ground in Aberdeen than anywhere else, there are lessons that the Conservatives can take from this. A relentless focus on good jobs. Safeguarding domestic industry. And, in the words of Al Carns, “energy security shapes economic security”.
Whilst Aberdeen South might not have elected the next Prime Minister, for the city’s sake, and that of the country, let’s hope that this marks the turning point in our energy policy.
Georgiana Bristol is Chief Executive of the Jobs Foundation
As wannabe-Cabinet Ministers and the obligatory media pack have decamped en-masse from Westminster to Makerfield over the past six weeks to see whether the so-called King of the North makes it in his quest to return to Westminster, you’d be forgiven for not knowing that 333 miles further north, up the M6 and the A90, another by-election was taking place.
Whilst Keir Starmer was all but banished from joining Andy Burnham’s campaign to retain Josh Simons’ former constituency, Kemi Badenoch was leading the charge for the Conservatives to re-take the Aberdeen South constituency for the Conservatives, visiting three times over the campaign.
In the previous two by-elections of this Parliament of Gorton & Denton and Runcorn, the Conservatives managed to secure just 1.9 and 7.1 per cent of the vote, respectively. In Aberdeen South, this was a comparably miraculous 50 per cent, with Douglas Lumsden winning the seat from the SNP.
For all the jubilation around the victory, it would be a mistake to paint this as the first harbinger of the Conservative’s march back into Government, but a remarkable victory this nonetheless is.
Yes, the SNP have been scarred by the unedifying spectacle of Mr Murrell’s embezzling of hundreds of thousands of pounds of party members money to spend on motorhomes and luxury pens. And yes, Scottish Labour have been all but written out of the picture by the unpopularity of the Labour Government in London.
When I was in Aberdeen last month, a taxi driver – always a reliable indicator of public opinion – told me, “I’ve never voted Conservative – and I hate the Conservatives – but this time they’ve got my vote”.
He went on to tell me not about the misfortunes and missteps of the SNP or Labour, but instead how Aberdeen, and the wider energy sector across the country, has been left behind by Government action and inaction, and how the Conservatives have understood these issues and pledged tangible actions to help the industry stay afoot.
Aberdeen’s economy has long been dominated by the oil and gas sector in the North Sea. Drilling has supported tens of thousands of high-paid, high-skilled jobs directly in the industry, and many more across the wider supply chain. Moreover, oil and gas provides billions of pounds of revenue to the Exchequer, and helps support the energy security of the UK in the volatile geopolitical times that we live in.
But the sector currently stands on its knees, with the Robert Gordon University’s Energy Transition Institute estimating that roughly 400 jobs are being lost every two weeks. The Port of Aberdeen, where revenues are tied to oil and gas, recorded a 20 per cent drop in Platform Supply Vessels in the six months to late 2025. And the Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce, whose business confidence benchmarks previously sat in the top ten per cent on virtually every measure, now describes the city as being “without doubt bottom of the league.”
Two policy decisions sit at the heart of this decline. The Energy Profits Levy (EPL), extended by the current Government to 78 per cent and running to 2030, has become so punitive that energy companies can face effective tax rates of over 100 per cent on new projects. Combined with the ban on new exploration licences, investment has been stripped out. One operator told us for our recent Cliff Edge report that they would still invest in oil and gas, just “somewhere more stable, like Nigeria.”
To fix this, and keep good jobs in Aberdeen, our report called on the Government to grant new licences for North Sea oil exploration, scrap the EPL immediately, and develop a concrete transition plan that supports domestic oil and gas production for as long as it takes for renewables to be genuinely ready to replace it.
As Shadow Energy Secretary, Claire Coutinho has forcefully made this case. Wes Streeting has pledged to grant new licences in the North Sea if he becomes Prime Minister, and Andy Burnham has said that he has an “open mind” on further exploration.
It’s correct that drilling more in the North Sea won’t have a material impact on prices paid by UK consumers. But ensuring continued investment will make sure that jobs and tax revenue stay in the UK – rather than Nigeria – and will help keep the energy supply chain afloat as we continue to move towards renewables.
Whilst the impact of energy policy is felt more keenly on the ground in Aberdeen than anywhere else, there are lessons that the Conservatives can take from this. A relentless focus on good jobs. Safeguarding domestic industry. And, in the words of Al Carns, “energy security shapes economic security”.
Whilst Aberdeen South might not have elected the next Prime Minister, for the city’s sake, and that of the country, let’s hope that this marks the turning point in our energy policy.