Luke Graham was the Conservative Member of Parliament for Ochil and Perthshire South from 2017 to 2019, the candidate in Perth and Kinross-shire in 2024, and a former head of the Downing Street Union Unit.
If you’d watched most of the last few weeks political coverage in the media, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the only story worth discussing was Andy Burnham’s and the Makerfield by-election. However, there were two results elsewhere in the UK that were worthy of more attention.
One in Aberdeen South. The other in Swindon.
Taken together, they challenge the dominant narrative of Reform UK: that the Conservative Party is in terminal decline and that Reform is steadily replacing it as the principal party of the “right”.
The first lesson from both contests is that local organisation and a party’s ground game still matters. In an era of rolling opinion polls, social media campaigns and endless political commentary, there is a growing tendency to view politics almost exclusively through a national lens. Yet elections are still won by candidates, activists and campaigns that show they understand their communities and turn out their supporters.
Aberdeen South is a prime example of this.
At the 2024 General Election, the constituency returned SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn with a majority approaching 4,000 votes. At the time, many interpreted the result as evidence of the SNP “landslide”. The actual result was driven by voter frustration with the Conservatives and a stronger Labour performance splitting the unionist vote, handing the SNP victory.
Last week’s by-election took place against a very different backdrop. The Murrell-Sturgeon scandal cast a shadow over the SNP, while the future of the North Sea oil and gas became a central issue. Against this setting, the Scottish Conservatives ran a focused campaign centred on jobs, energy security and the economic future of Aberdeen.
The result was remarkable. Conservative support increased from 24.4 per cent in 2024 to 49.5 per cent. Perhaps even more revealing was the pattern of voting beneath the headline. The SNP’s vote only fell by around 4%, while Labour’s collapsed by more than nineteen percentage points, the majority of which seemed to make the conscious tactical decision to back the Conservative candidate, Douglas Lumsden, in order to defeat the SNP.
This matters because it demonstrates something often overlooked in discussions about Scottish politics. Opposition to the SNP remains broader than support for it. Nationalists continue to benefit from fragmented opposition, but where anti-SNP voters unite around a credible candidate and campaign, the SNP can be beaten.
The second lesson comes from Reform UK’s performance in Aberdeen.
In the run-up to the contest, polls suggested Reform were neck-and-neck with the Conservatives. Instead, Reform finished a distant third on 8.6 per cent of the vote. One result does not erase months of national polling, but it is enough to temper assumptions that Reform is on a fast track to government.
A similar pattern emerged hundreds of miles away in Swindon just a few weeks earlier.
Swindon has long been one of England’s most politically competitive “swing” towns. It has regularly switched between Labour and Conservative representation and often acts as a useful barometer of the country’s political feelings. Ahead of the local elections, Labour increasingly framed the contest as a direct battle with Reform UK. Meanwhile, Reform was trying to paint themselves as the true opposition to Labour and the Conservatives as “irrelevant”.
The result was not the Labour-Reform head-to-head the two parties wanted. Yes, Labour’s vote share fell sharply, and the party lost control of the council, and Reform achieved a significant breakthrough. But despite the directed narratives, it was the Conservatives who emerged as the largest party.
This outcome was not achieved through dramatic announcements or headline-grabbing interventions. It was built through organisation, candidate quality and a sustained focus on local issues. Conservative councillors and activists concentrated on concerns that residents raised on the doorstep rather than chasing the latest political bandwagon.
That may sound unremarkable, but it highlights an important truth about politics that although voters may go for the loudest voice as a protest vote, they are desperate to reward hard work and basic competency.
Taken together, Aberdeen South and Swindon reveal a dynamic political scene, where Labour remains vulnerable, and Reform continues to attract support from frustrated voters but is still struggling to convert attention into electoral success. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party retains assets that many in the media have been quick to dismiss: an established activist base, strong local government representation and an ability to build tactical coalitions against opponents.
None of this means the Conservatives are home and dry. The challenges remain substantial. The 2024 General Election still was a historical defeat, and rebuilding trust will take time. Reform remains a serious competitor for voters, while Labour, especially under new leadership, may still be able to revitalise itself the party of government.
But across the country, there are signs that some voters who lent their support to Reform in 2024 are beginning to look again at the Conservatives. Equally, there are former Labour voters who wanted change but are increasingly disappointed by what they have received and do not want to vote Reform.
The task for our party is to demonstrate that we offer something neither currently provides: a credible programme for government combined with the organisational strength to deliver it. Kemi is standing out as a strong and capable leader; we need to build the team and platform behind her to push us on to victory.
Politics is rarely as straightforward as the polling makes out. Elections are still fought constituency by constituency, ward by ward and doorstep by doorstep. Aberdeen South and Swindon are reminders that electoral resilience matters, that local campaigning still counts and that recovery is possible long before the commentators notice it.
For our party seeking a path back to government, that is a lesson worth remembering.