Renewal2030 was the platform on which Kemi Badenoch campaigned to be leader of the Conservative Party back in 2024. She made the case that “we have to focus on renewal” and that focus should be on “the renewal of our party, our politics and our thinking.”
It is a worthy cause. Having been thrashed at the ballot box in our worst ever electoral performance, renewing and changing the party was, and still is, a necessary move.
And so, 2 years later, I ask the readers of ConservativeHome a very simple question.
How would you, were you in Kemi Badenoch’s position, show that the party has changed? To make it a tad easier, I shall provide you with a series of possible choices. Do you:
A: Fill the Shadow Great Offices of State with figures who carry little to none of the baggage of the previous government, so the front bench reflects the change you want.
B: Leave the top team largely intact for the sake of continuity, but use the middle and junior rankings to promote a new wave of untainted MPs.
C: Go even further than the previous two choices, and fill the Shadow Cabinet with a predominantly new intake of MPs – a risky move, but one which shows radical change.
D: Reduce the media exposure of tainted MPs, and focus instead on highlighting the success of new MPs, whilst keeping the team the way it is.
There will be a wide debate over the possibilities. Many will see the merits of option A, but perhaps like the appeal of option D slightly more. Maybe others may be torn between option B and option C. Yet, seemingly for Kemi and her top team, the answer is option E: to keep things largely unchanged whatsoever.
“I’m not planning a reshuffle at the moment. I have a good team” was what she told me when I asked her if she was categorically ruling out a reshuffle once Burnham becomes PM. It was a clever answer. Neither a flat out denial nor confirmation. “At the moment” could mean anything and the vagueness was likely deployed on purpose to shield her if she chooses to change things later on – a sign of her ever-growing political savviness.
But we can only judge Kemi on what she says and does, and so we must assume that, at least until Burnham gets into No 10, a reshuffle is not coming. Her reasoning for this is relatively straightforward. Reshuffles are “very destabilising” and “showing people that we have got some stability is very important. We’re not like the other parties where they either don’t have spokesmen or they’re chopping and changing all the time.”
She added that “lots of people like reshuffles, but they like them because it’s news for a week… then they get bored afterwards.” A reshuffle would only occur, in her words if there was a “good reason that everyone understands. Not just because it’s fun to write about.”
I note that when she said the final line, she shot me a knowing side eye…
It is a line which makes sense, however. As Badenoch attempts to portray the party as one that has distanced itself from its regicidal roots, offering a sense of continuity may do her good. But continuity is not the only argument against a reshuffle, there are others too.
The first is that it signals to the British public that particular people around the table are not, as many MPs have put it to me, “pulling their weight.”
Whilst some MPs are evidently frustrated with some in the Shadow Cabinet, with one arguing that many of the current shadow teams are “largely anaemic”, one has to remember how sacking people from the top jobs looks to the public.
The Conservatives are making a pitch to be in government, and exiling a Shadow Minister to the backbenches says little more than ‘this person is not doing a good job.’ It is clear that it would not go down particularly well.
The other argument against a reshuffle rests on the fact that doing so would anger those who would be moved out. Transitioning someone out of the top team will naturally lead to bad blood, and at a time when the party is experiencing a heightened, if not unexpected, sense of unity, this is something that Kemi and the wider LOTO team will be eager to avoid. “We’re already a small team” one senior MP tells me “we don’t want to have people outside the tent pissing in.”
I will admit, these are both worthwhile cases against a reshuffle. Things seem to be going well at the moment. As the old saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Kemi is storming ahead of other party leaders with respect to personal popularity, and the party has just won a by-election in South Aberdeen. Let things improve over time, rather than throw a spanner in the works.
Despite these recent blips of success, the party is still succumbing to national trends. Polling has not exceeded Sunak-era levels, and many on the doorstep still do not trust the Tories. I would wager, therefore, that if Badenoch is so desperate for a “good reason” to push forward with a reshuffle, she need look no further than when Burnham enters Number 10.
If the rumours are true, Burnham could go ahead with a major shake up.
The job of a Shadow Cabinet is, as the name suggests, to respond and shadow the government of the day. Given this, a Cabinet reshuffle would provide a very legitimate reason to move people around. Allowing the same individuals to shadow a renewed government front bench would make the Tories look stale and unresponsive.
This would also come with the added benefit of shielding LOTO from the criticisms set out above. Being able to excuse a reshuffle as merely responding to the government changes means that you don’t annoy those you move around, and you don’t look to be sacking people for performing poorly.
‘It’s nothing personal, we’re just responding to government changes’ would be the line, and my guess is it would work a treat.
Many within the party accept this as well. “It makes logical sense” one MP told me. Another added that it is “an opportunity” for Badenoch that she should not squander – a chance to “freshen up her own team.”
And yet, despite this clear logic, the typical signals of a reshuffle are nowhere to be seen. One member of the Shadow Cabinet who has been rumoured by many to be on the way out, for instance, has gone on a hiring spree as of late – taking on 4 new staffers in recent weeks. Whilst some have labelled it as a sign of “desperation” others have made it very clear that hiring such a significant amount of new staffers indicates that they are not being moved on any time soon.
There are clearly conflicting thoughts at play here, therefore. There are those in LOTO who remain tight-lipped about the situation, not letting anything slip whatsoever. There are those within the Shadow Cabinet who, despite the rumours and murmurings, are eager to shore up their teams and bolster their image. And there are, of course, those outside the Shadow Cabinet, who look on with bated breath, wondering when – if at all – it will be their turn.
Of course, many in both the second and third categories are vying for jobs and positions – and so what is said should be taken with a slight pinch of salt. Yet, I have spoken to scores of MPs in recent weeks, and a great number of them (many of which have no skin in the game when it comes to reshuffles in fact) feel that a change of personnel is necessary.
It is clear that this current iteration of the Shadow Cabinet will not be the last. I find it difficult to believe – though I am willing to be proven wrong on this point – that the Shadow Cabinet we see at the moment will remain in place when the next election comes around. There is evidently a direction of travel that seeks to move newer talent up, and that has not yet come to pass.
But, despite such clear reasoning to go ahead with a reshuffle in the next few weeks, there appears to be mixed messaging. The appeals from a number of MPs comes to blows with the mindset of LOTO. The reality, as much of a cop out answer as it may seem, is that only Kemi Badenoch knows whether a reshuffle will occur. At the moment, we can only take her on her word – that she is “not planning a reshuffle at the moment.”
Whether that holds true depends on whether Andy Burnham shakes things up upon entering Number 10…