John Oxley is a consultant, writer, and broadcaster. His SubStack is Joxley Writes.
Few readers of this site will be looking forward to the beginning of the Burnham premiership. While we may be glad to see the back of Starmer, there are few reasons to assume that governance, or the country, will improve after a change of Labour leader. For me, there is an element of a personal vendetta too: 25 years ago, when Burnham first stood for parliament, his vanquished Tory opponent was my father (who did, for the record, beat the national swing).
Our suspicion of our opponents’ abilities often leads us to be dismissive of them. There are, however, things we should learn from Andy Burnham’s ascent from a moderately prominent New Labour. Foremost among these is his ability to provide what every modern politician seems to crave – authenticity.
This has arguably been key to his rise, his tenure in Manchester creating an image of the King of the North, outside and opposed to the self-interest of Westminster.
Like every image, it is highly cultivated if not entirely invented. Burnham was, of course, born and raised in the North, but his backstory has been burnished. He is technically a Woolyback, not a Scouser – hailing from the area around Liverpool, rather than the city itself. He grew up in Culcheth, a village moved from Lancashire to Warrington by the 1974 boundaries. It is a place that defies stereotypes of the industrial north, a pretty place with a village green and a local reputation as well-to-do. After leaving, of course, he became an absolute Westminster insider, following the advisor to MP pipeline, first elected in his early thirties and staying in politics since.
None of that, apparently, seems to matter. The power of the image overpowers it. He talks like a Westminster outsider now. He dresses like one. He picks his battles like one too – ably casting his time as mayor as the person who pushed back on behalf of Manchester. The result is a politician that many people see as on their side, receptive to their interests, and prepared to fight for them. It is this branding that has helped him not only return to Westminster but also come back to the top job.
It was once said in politics that sincerity was the most important thing, and once you could fake that, you had made it. Authenticity, it seems, has taken its place. Burnham, Farage, and, of course, Boris each succeed by portraying themselves in ways people see as really them. In each case, they do so in carefully studied and constructed ways. It works. Few voters have the inclination to critique the backstories or will ever see them in person. Authenticity doesn’t matter, but if voters can understand you as a simple, consistent character, it will help.
Indeed, one of the cruel ironies of Starmer’s failure is that he is perhaps too authentic. How he comes across is quite similar to how he is – detailed and dispassionate, stilted and at times awkward, unsure of his own leadership and command. Somehow, that gets read as inauthentic, perhaps because the public feels more comfortable saying that than simply saying they don’t like what’s there.
At the heart of this is something bigger than any politician’s backstory. It is about connecting with your electorate. Successful politics is about identifying with an audience. Finding a group of people and conveying that you are on their side, making them feel you will act in their interest and respect their views. Doing so makes them feel good about voting for the party and about you. It gets rationalised through the language of authenticity.
This has largely driven Burnham’s march through the Labour Party. Left-leaning voters outside London feel he will stand up for them. This isn’t because of his policies or plan for government, which remain vague and untested by a leadership contest. It is because of the brand he has created. Farage has largely done the same – affecting a personality that taps into the disillusionment of economically insecure older voters.
The Conservatives need to think about tapping into the same ideas. One of Kemi’s real strengths as a leader is her authenticity. Saying and standing by what she says does appeal to people. It is why she has higher approval ratings than the other party leaders. But the broader party has struggled with this. Our support languishes because we have struggled to find and articulate a good-enough, unique answer to the question of who we are here for. In the absence of that, we have defaulted to a base of older, richer homeowners. That is not enough to win an election and risks a vicious cycle of policies that alienate other groups. Instead, we need a broader appeal, one that resonates with authenticity.
The timing is opportune. Burnham’s ascension changes the dynamic against Labour. His brand might reassert Labour’s appeal in the North, but it could leave others cold. There is a risk he becomes typecast as Manchester’s Prime Minister. Farage is simultaneously faltering. The ongoing scandals pose a real challenge for Reform, and their testy response puts them at odds with much of the public. Identities are in flux, and the boundaries of politics are shifting once again. A parliament marked by volatility could open a gap for the Conservatives once more.
As Conservatives, we can be dismissive of the emotional aspects of politics. We are more comfortable discussing policy, and most of the discussions about renewal have focused on it. There is wisdom in that. Both our last period in government and the steep collapse with Keir have shown that governing badly gets you kicked out of power. But to win it in the first place, you need enough people feeling good about you. Identity and belonging matter, and authenticity is part of that.
The Conservative Party has less than three years to answer the electoral challenge. They must make inroads against both Burnham and Farage. Each of these has their weaknesses, and we must have proper policy alternatives to both. But those two leaders, so unalike in their politics, have mastered one thing – that the much-vaunted authenticity is not about who you are, but how carefully you build your image. We are facing two masters of this, and to succeed, we need our own way of telling a story that connects with voters who feel that we are for them.
This isn’t necessarily about building a monolithic party. To win, we need to pick up seats across different places with different demographics. Policy will do some of the work on this, but we also need to find people who can cultivate that sort of support. Candidates who understand not just what their constituency looks like, but what the Conservative Party is actually standing for within it. If authenticity is the electoral force of the day, we ultimately need to find ways to manufacture it, and who we are being authentic for.
Next week, John will be driving to Ukraine to deliver a much-needed medical evacuation vehicle. If you’d like to support this mission, you can donate here: www.donorbox.org/johnoxleydu