Call me cynical, but I find it very difficult to believe what politicians tell us nowadays. Perhaps it didn’t help that my formative years were spent watching the political class squabble over Partygate, but I just cannot lend my unwavering trust to any politician. I don’t care whether they sound like a ‘normal bloke’ or whether they use a lectern – there is just something about holding elected office that I find to be indicative of half-truthfulness.
And so, when Burnham ruled out an early general election yesterday, I found myself – yet again – struggling to believe him. After all, both Theresa May and Boris Johnson ruled out early elections just months before they called them. What is to say that Burnham won’t do the same? ‘I don’t think people want it’ is hardly a strong argument. What if people did want an early election? What then?
Now, observant ConservativeHome readers will know that I argued a few weeks ago that the Conservatives should be very scared of a snap election.
Many dismissed the idea as nothing more than fearmongering. That Burnham would be silly to throw away his majority and risk a possible progressive coalition. I made my case then, and I cannot help but feel that his actions since moving into Number 10 have only strengthened my prediction. With his recent policy announcements and the repeated failings of opposition parties, Burnham has the perfect opportunity to stick the boot into his political adversaries.
Let us begin with the policies that he has put forward. Thus far, we have seen three major proposals. To cut VAT on electricity bills, to cap bus fares at £2, and to slash business rates on pubs, clubs and live music venues.
Despite the largely uncosted nature of such proposals, they are incredibly popular amongst the electorate and carry very little in terms of political risk. They are by no means radical ideas, but they offer a taster of what an unleashed version of what Burnham’s Britain could look like. A sort of amuse-bouche of Manchesterism.
Yet, he recognises that he cannot drastically overhaul the system without a mandate, and so the policies he has put forward are mere snippets of his bigger plans. A way of saying to the public that he understands the pressures they face, has solutions to ease them, and can be trusted with a much bigger project later down the road – a nod back to his ten year plan. They provide him with the perfect opportunity to turn to the country and say ‘look at what I have delivered so far – now provide me with a mandate so I can go even further.’
Alongside this, his popularity appears to have peaked too. Analysis by YouGov puts the King of the North’s personal rating at a dizzyingly high +13; a figure 10 points higher than Kemi Badenoch, 18 points higher than Ed Davey and 35 points higher than both Farage and Polanski.
Indeed, it is even a figure which trumps Starmer’s peak approval rating of +11 following the 2024 General Election. But, as is custom with every British PM, he is not going to get any more popular. The issues which have arisen over the Early Release Scheme are already starting to damage his image, and he is likely to slip into single digits in the coming months.
It would be sensible, therefore, to pull the trigger sooner rather than later. Exploit this political high and minimise the damage to the Labour Party brand before it is too late. Take full advantage of the ‘Burnham Bounce’.
Then, we have to look at the political landscape that he is up against. On his right, Nigel Farage and Reform are embroiled in what appears to be a never-ending wave of controversy. Questions over financing have left Reform’s leader in a toddler-like tantrum that is wholly unbecoming of a man who is seeking to be our next Prime Minister. His image has been irreversibly damaged, and Reform’s polling position – whilst still outperforming other parties – is still very much on the down. If trends continue as they are now, a crossover could well occur as early as October this year.
Elsewhere to Burnham’s right, you have the Conservatives, who despite being more prepared than they were prior, still do not seem battle ready. Whilst their line in the sand on issues such as net-zero and the ECHR is a clear shift in gear, the party still trails in the polls. Being stuck at 20 per cent in the polls is an issue which can only be overcome by time – and a snap election removes such a luxury.
On Burnham’s left, the fear of haemorrhaging votes to the Greens appears to have vanished. Zack Polanski, who once proclaimed that he was going to replace the Labour Party, has disappeared from the face of the electoral Earth. When he isn’t spending his Sunday afternoons in central London nightclubs, he is pumping out such poor quality social media content that it almost makes one forget that his deodorant-phobic supporters still don’t understand the difference between the debt and the deficit. He has dissolved into the realm of political obscurity and, in doing so, has offered Burnham space to expand into.
Or, to put it simply, all of Burnham’s opponents are in a state of political weakness. No one, despite what they may claim, is ready for a snap-election, nor do they want one to occur. Burnham has already proven himself to be a savvy political operator, and if he is eager to maintain such an image, calling a snap election isn’t a necessarily far fetched idea.
Combine all of these factors, and you get a political environment that is ripe for an early election. A string of popular, albeit bitesize policies, a bounce in the polls and a disorganised opposition puts Burnham in a uniquely powerful position.
Yet this is something which I think Kemi and the wider LOTO team have recognised. Her decision to draw a defining line on ECHR membership and net-zero targets is a move which is evidently pre-empting an early general election. Blocking former MPs like that of Grant Shapps is yet another way of showcasing that the party has learned its lesson and changed accordingly, for prior to these announcements, the electorate still didn’t know precisely what the Tories stood for.
Aside from a handful of pro-business slogans, the party lacked any real identity. You could vote Tory and end up with anyone from a Liberal Democrat in all-but-name to a committed Thatcherite. There was too much uncertainty that made the party unelectable.
But no longer. Kemi’s leadership in recent weeks has finally answered the question of what the Conservative Party is for. What it hasn’t yet answered, however, is whether the country is listening. Burnham will not wait for us to be ready.
His saviour-complex may well be insufferable, but right now he is putting all the pieces in place to be able to go to the country before 2029. Perhaps I am wrong, and I hope that I am. Maybe, just maybe, Burnham will honour this commitment and not call an early election.
But resting on that possibility is by no means a sensible way to play politics. It puts our political fortunes in the hands’ of hope – and that is a dangerous place to be. So yes, we should be worried of a snap-election – much more so than we were a handful of weeks ago.
Burnham is laying the foundations to go to the country, and it is imperative that we are ready.