Dr Stephen Goss is a freelance historian, lectures in history and politics in London, and is a Conservative councillor in Reading.
When Andy Burnham reshuffled the Cabinet on his first day as Prime Minister, an eye-catching casualty was the mild-mannered, widely respected, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. Hilary Benn’s removal was confirmed within hours of Burnham’s appointment, and it blindsided observers on both sides of the Irish Sea. Only weeks earlier he had begun a fresh ‘programme of work’ with the Treasury and the Stormont parties over the Executive’s funding crisis, and this month he had been publicly urging Stormont’s politicians to finally agree a multi-year budget.
Benn’s two years in the role were a period of comparative stability. He is credited with steering through the replacement of the Conservatives’ discredited Legacy Act with a new joint UK-Irish framework for dealing with the Troubles. He helped reset British-Irish relations after the rancour of preceding years. He was not without controversy – veterans’ amendments he introduced to the legacy legislation proved contentious, with unionists dismissing them as a ‘mirage’. Even DUP leader Gavin Robinson, who had clashed with Benn over that legislation, has been generous in tribute.
His successor is Sir Chris Bryant, the Rhondda and Ogmore MP, propelled from the Department for Business and Trade into one of the Cabinet posts ministers would rather avoid. Bryant brings a long parliamentary history: an MP since 2001, a junior minister under Gordon Brown, a prominent Remainer, and a former Anglican clergyman who left the Church over its stance on homosexuality.
What does Bryant’s appointment mean for Northern Ireland? He has been careful in his first few days to set expectations low rather than high. He stated he has ‘a bit of a checklist’ covering economic opportunity for young people, Northern Ireland’s public finances, and progressing legacy legislation ‘in a way that works for everybody’ – deliberately vague formulations that commit him to very little. Asked whether a border poll was imminent, he is unambiguous: it is not on his list of priorities – at present.
First Minister Michelle O’Neill spoke to Bryant by phone within hours of his appointment. O’Neill was quick to proffer her begging bowl, insisting that Bryant and the new ministry must change Westminster’s approach to funding the Executive. She had the audacity to demand that Stormont be funded ‘fairly’.
Gavin Robinson stated that the new Secretary of State was ‘very favourable towards the European Union’ and that unionists needed assurance Northern Ireland would not be left ‘at a detriment to other parts of this United Kingdom’. Indeed, the new Prime Minister’s first substantive announcement, an £850 million VAT cut on household energy bills, will not apply in Northern Ireland. The Windsor Framework rules mean EU VAT rates still apply there. Stormont has instead been promised compensatory funding, a formula local politicians argue falls short. Robinson wants withdrawal of the legacy legislation moved to the very top of Bryant’s checklist – a demand the new Secretary of State shows no sign of meeting.
The Ulster Unionist Leader Jon Burrows was politely unimpressed by Andy Burnham, saying the new Prime Minister ‘talks a good talk’ but that ‘now is the time for delivery’. He did however welcome the focus on ‘practical help over more referendums and constitutional wrangling’. The Orange Order has pressed Burnham to dismantle the Irish Sea border in order to fulfil his promise to ‘bring back hope’. The TUV has been considerably less charitable: Jim Allister has attacked Bryant’s record on Northern Ireland’s place inside the EU single market, and his opposition to the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legal definition of sex.
The SDLP has struck a more constructive note. Leader Claire Hanna said Bryant ‘inherits a full and urgent agenda’, warning that ‘with a Budget crisis threatening public services and Assembly elections on the horizon, there is little time to lose’.
Bryant also arrives to a Northern Irish public with little faith that a change of Prime Minister will improve their lot. Polling has found roughly two-thirds of voters are sceptical Burnham’s premiership will change much for them. That cynicism is not confined to Northern Ireland. YouGov’s first favourability poll of the new premiership found Britons almost evenly split, while More in Common found a majority did not think Burnham ready for Downing Street.
Burnham has long spoken proudly of his Irish ancestry, tracing his family’s roots to County Donegal and Drogheda in Louth, from where they emigrated to Liverpool in the late 19th Century. Dublin has noticed: a junior minister at the Department of Foreign Affairs said the Irish government intended to ‘lean into’ Burnham’s Irish links in an effort to get him to reverse some of Starmer’s policies, particularly over international aid and development funding.
Whether sentiment translates into policy for Northern Ireland is another matter. There is little evidence the new Prime Minister is nationalist-leaning in any meaningful sense. Burnham himself has been just as keen to dampen constitutional speculation as his Secretary of State; his government’s stated priority is ‘practical support for families struggling with the cost of living’ rather than constitutional change and referenda. A reassuringly firm line from both the new Prime Minister and Secretary of State. He has, at times, backed the case for Labour organising in Northern Ireland.
Between them, Bryant and Burnham face an unresolved Troubles legacy bill, an unresolved Stormont budget crisis, and an increasingly fractious relationship between Sinn Féin and the DUP at Stormont. On top of the political problems, Sir Chris was greeted into office with a fully constructed car bomb. Gardaí intercepted the device in County Monaghan on the border. The Garda Commissioner called the find ‘extremely significant’, and it is very much a reminder that dissident republicanism – though marginal – has not disappeared. This is exactly the kind of episode that tests a new Secretary of State’s instincts before he has had time to settle in. In response, Bryant stressed the continued importance of strong cross-border security co-operation.
Sir Chris arrives with significant parliamentary experience but no track record on Northern Ireland specifically. His instinct so far: vague commitments, rejection of constitutional changes, a studied caution about legacy legislation, suggests a Secretary of State who understands he has little to gain from bold moves and much to lose from them. That caution is likely to harden into dependence. With no personal grounding in Northern Ireland’s affairs, Bryant will have little choice but to lean heavily on the Northern Ireland Office (NIO). That is not unusual for an incoming Secretary of State. However, it means the substance of policy is likely to be set less by Bryant’s own instincts than by the NIO’s institutional caution. The risk is not that Bryant gets Northern Ireland badly wrong, but that he is steered towards the same holding pattern his predecessors have followed.
That has a cost. Victims’ families have already waited years for a legacy process. Settling Stormont’s budget crisis will do nothing to resolve the structural incongruity between what Westminster provides and what Stormont is expected to deliver. A Secretary of State who manages rather than resolves may keep the show on the road, but it is Northern Ireland’s public services and its bereaved families who are left waiting for that road to actually go somewhere.