Readers, fret not. I have already bunkered down and prepared myself for the Musk-funded onslaught that is likely to result from such a headline.
It’s a noticeably bold choice, given that Restore got more votes than the Conservatives in Greater Manchester. Who, then, am I to say that they shouldn’t be taken seriously as a party? The reality is, however, that if one peels back the soundbites and fixation over migration and curry shops, it becomes clear that there is very little substance there. A form of protest, masquerading under the guise of a political party.
That is not to say that they are of complete irrelevance. Restore can be politically effective without being a serious party. Protest movements like Restore often succeed at disrupting politics long before they are capable of actually governing a country, and that is the situation we appear to find ourselves in.
Speaking yesterday in a sombre, twelve minute long video, Restore Britain’s leader Rupert Lowe made an offer to Nigel Farage. An alliance, of sorts, to band together and prevent the ghastly possibility of a progressive left-wing coalition with Andy Burnham at the helm.
“The country we both love is changing beyond recognition,” he said, and “millions of people feel like strangers in their own communities.” The “patriotic right” is “hopelessly divided” and, as a result, Lowe is “putting personalities and past disagreements aside” to form some kind of partnership with Farage. Don’t do it Rupert – you know what happened last time.
The partnership is dependent on five agreements being reached: Mass immigration must end, and mass deportations must begin. Britain’s ‘demographic security’ must be restored, and white Britons must not become a minority. A referendum on the death penalty must take place. Sound public finances must be restored and no failed Conservative MPs can be allowed in any future government.
To give the dog-shooting old chap credit, restoring sound public finances and barring “failed” Tory MPs from government aren’t particularly outlandish notions. After all, Kemi Badenoch has embarked on a similar crusade – insisting that Britons have been living beyond their means for quite some time, and barring some previous Tory MPs from standing whatsoever.
But the niceties end there.
Everything else is cheap populist gobbledegook designed to whip up anger and frenzy. Mass deportations (to the extent that Lowe wants) are simply unachievable, and even Farage himself has admitted this when pressed on the issue. The scale at which he wishes to proceed with such an ask is simply too large, and the logistics involved too burdensome. A referendum on the death penalty is equally fanciful, and Lowe’s use of the Rudakubana case to drum up rage is textbook populist, emotional politics. It could well be called, but the division it would sow would be enormous. No party that is seriously contending for government would ever stake its credibility on such an issue.
But Farage looks as though he is open to entertaining the possibility. In a message on X, he wrote that he understands “Reform UK will need the support of people from other parties” and that “there will always be a home in Reform UK for those who believe that 14 years of Conservative government, followed by the last 2 years of Labour, have failed the British people.” It seems as though he’s leaving the door open for some form of agreement with Lowe. Even Suella Braverman replied with “Agree [100 emoji].” It’s a far cry from the the “one angry man” with a social media account image Farage used to paint of Restore Britain.
But the fact is that the demands which Lowe has put forward would not look out of place in a terms of surrender document, and agreeing some type of electoral partnership would make Farage look weak. Reform’s leader would effectively sign onto Restore’s policy platform if he says yes (bar some concessions here and there), or would continue to bleed votes to them in elections if he says no. A humiliation ritual, if you like. Either way, it is a lose-lose scenario.
On balance, and taking into account the general image of Restore Britain, it is probably best for Farage that he rejects this vitriol-laced olive branch. To align his party with the demands of a group that is staffed by what is effectively a bunch of chronically online, critical thinking-averse, undersexed young men would be politically foolish. Don’t worry lads, I’m sure the ladies love it when you talk about remigration on the first date.
And this matters, because the result we witnessed in Manchester has prompted some on the right of British politics to treat Restore as though it is some serious political force. Many have jumped to social media, alleging that because Restore trumped the Tory vote that the Conservative Party is finished as a national force.
That Conservative voters have been relegated to the confines of Belgravia and The Times comment section, insisting that Fraser Nelson et al just get it. Of course, what they neglect to mention is that they have been saying this for close to a year now – but don’t worry everyone, it will be different this time.
Arron Banks was one such figure who jumped on this bandwagon. “Conservatives got less than Restore in Manchester. For all the Kemi hype they are finished,” he said on X.
It really is a silly logic to subscribe to.
One mayoral by-election in a traditional, anti-Tory metropolitan bastion, which had an approximate turnout of 25 per cent, proves absolutely nothing about party momentum across the country.
Nationally, the Conservatives and Reform are separated by roughly three per cent in the polls. That’s hardly indicative of terminal decline. In fact, owing to First Past the Post, the Tories would actually win more seats than Reform at the next election, despite trailing them in the national polls.
But let us follow this logic for just a short second. Let us believe that by-elections are the authoritative measure of partisan health and longevity. Why, then, does nobody draw conclusions from Aberdeen South? The Conservatives there overturned a substantial SNP majority, secured over 14,000 votes, and achieved a swing of +14.7 per cent. Reform, rather embarrassingly, finished third.
The same pattern holds across recent contests in Essex, Devon, and South Gloucestershire: the Conservatives win and Reform performs badly. When the Conservatives lose a by-election, it is indicative of a party in terminal decline. When they win, it’s irrelevant. How fortuitous.
The mayoral race was always going to be a difficult one, no one denies such a reality. The Tories were never expected to win a landslide victory. But to extrapolate some type of national trend from the results we witnessed is little more than desperate politics. Both Restore and Reform are committed to killing off the Conservative Party, and they seem to be clutching at straws to make it happen.
The results in Manchester, and Rupert Lowe’s stunt, will be seen by many as proof that the right must unite, and that the Conservatives are dead. Both conclusions are wrong. Bowing to the demands of tacky populists would be the ultimate humiliation, and one by-election result in a Labour heartland should not dictate the Tories’ direction of travel.