Jon Hollis is a commentator, a Senior Researcher for the City Hall Conservatives, and a former Association Chairman.
Last week two pieces were published arguing in favour of uniting the Right. In The Daily Telegraph Allister Heath claimed that “This catastrophic split on the Right risks handing power to terrifying new enemies” whilst on Conservative Home Andrew Allison made the case that “The vituperative nature of rivalry on the right is gifting our opponents a free pass”.
It is not hard to understand why, with Andy Burnham’s Labour Party bouncing – if not surging – in the polls, those who believe there is more that unites the Conservatives and Reform than divides them would push for a rapprochement. The fear that Labour could gain another sizeable majority on, say 32% of the vote over two right wing parties polling in the mid-20s is a real one.
However, even setting aside the events of this week – and particularly the unmissable “Tim Montgomerie Obliterates The Idea Zia Yusuf Should Be Anywhere Near Elected Politics” trilogy of appearances on Coffee House Shots, The Daily T and Newsnight – there are at least four major reasons why the Conservative Party should have nothing to do with Reform and each of them begins with a ‘P’.
Let’s start with the underlying one; POLLING.
Just as 2+2 does not always equal 4, so Reform on 22 per cent of the vote plus Conservatives on 21 per cent does not equal 43 percent. A significant percentage of Reform voters would never vote Conservative and an even higher percentage of those who plan to vote Conservative would never vote Reform. Furthermore the polling makes clear that habitual Lib Dem and Labour voters (and those who voted Lib Dem or Labour for the first time in 2024) who might otherwise consider voting Conservative would rule out doing so if the Conservative Party does any kind of deal with Reform. As multiple by-elections and More In Common’s polling has shown, a great many voters will vote for the Party best able to beat Reform. Given the rise of Reform has helped to detoxify the Conservatives and opened up more people to consider voting Conservative, why would the Conservatives want to reverse that trend?
The second reason why Conservatives should want nothing to do with Reform is the PEOPLE involved.
To be very clear, there are plenty of excellent people in Reform. Reform has some very good Councillors, members and supporters. However look at their senior figures. If Zia Yusuf, Arron Banks, George Cottrell, Raheem Kassam or Nigel Farage asked to join the Conservative Party I very much hope the Conservative Party would tell them to get lost.
If Robert Jenrick or Suella Braverman were to claim to have seen the error of their ways and begged to return, it would be unbelievably foolish to take them at their word and welcome them back. So if Conservatives would not countenance letting Reform’s most senior elected and unelected figures into their Party then what sort of deal or agreement could there possibly be which wouldn’t leave the Conservative Party looking two-faced and untrustworthy?
The third issue with Reform is their POLICIES.
It has been noted that these have a habit of falling apart within a couple of days of being announced. It is not for nothing that Conservatives criticise Reform’s policies as having been “written on the back of a cigarette packet”. Who can forget “Farage’s ‘crackpot scheme’ to pay Taliban” to take back asylum seekers or Reform’s energy infrastructure policy which was downgraded to a ‘direction of travel’ after a few days of being almost universally rubbished? As the Conservative Party spends time and energy on developing clear, effective, evidenced policies, it would be disastrous to jump into bed with a Party whose polices are based on vibes and sounding tough.
The fourth and final issue is PRECEDENT (or, if you prefer, PRESIDENT).
As Allister Heath noted in his article, the Right has made very real mistakes in a number of countries around the World, when it has chosen populism over making the principled case for free markets, sound money and the rule of law. In the United States the Party of Reagan has become the Party of Trump and no Conservative should see that as an improvement. The fight for supremacy between the Conservative Party and Reform is a battle for the soul of the centre right and there is little doubt that Reform is the Trumpian option. The Conservatives are battling to ensure the UK’s leading right wing Party advocates serious policies, the power of markets & the dangers of big Government whilst Reform’s cosplay ‘Shadow Home Secretary’ is threatening to send CEOs to prison. Those who want to ‘Unite the Right’ should recognise this is a vital battle, not a silly skirmish.
None of that means the Conservative Party should stop working hard to earn the public’s support or that Reform supporters have a duty to back us – they do not. Nevertheless, over time, Conservatives need to persuade decent Reform supporters that they should vote for the Conservative Party. Some good people will not be persuaded and that is regrettable but there are no lazy, counterproductive shortcuts. The battle must be fought and won. Otherwise Labour will win and our country will lose.
Jon Hollis is a commentator, a Senior Researcher for the City Hall Conservatives, and a former Association Chairman.
Last week two pieces were published arguing in favour of uniting the Right. In The Daily Telegraph Allister Heath claimed that “This catastrophic split on the Right risks handing power to terrifying new enemies” whilst on Conservative Home Andrew Allison made the case that “The vituperative nature of rivalry on the right is gifting our opponents a free pass”.
It is not hard to understand why, with Andy Burnham’s Labour Party bouncing – if not surging – in the polls, those who believe there is more that unites the Conservatives and Reform than divides them would push for a rapprochement. The fear that Labour could gain another sizeable majority on, say 32% of the vote over two right wing parties polling in the mid-20s is a real one.
However, even setting aside the events of this week – and particularly the unmissable “Tim Montgomerie Obliterates The Idea Zia Yusuf Should Be Anywhere Near Elected Politics” trilogy of appearances on Coffee House Shots, The Daily T and Newsnight – there are at least four major reasons why the Conservative Party should have nothing to do with Reform and each of them begins with a ‘P’.
Let’s start with the underlying one; POLLING.
Just as 2+2 does not always equal 4, so Reform on 22 per cent of the vote plus Conservatives on 21 per cent does not equal 43 percent. A significant percentage of Reform voters would never vote Conservative and an even higher percentage of those who plan to vote Conservative would never vote Reform. Furthermore the polling makes clear that habitual Lib Dem and Labour voters (and those who voted Lib Dem or Labour for the first time in 2024) who might otherwise consider voting Conservative would rule out doing so if the Conservative Party does any kind of deal with Reform. As multiple by-elections and More In Common’s polling has shown, a great many voters will vote for the Party best able to beat Reform. Given the rise of Reform has helped to detoxify the Conservatives and opened up more people to consider voting Conservative, why would the Conservatives want to reverse that trend?
The second reason why Conservatives should want nothing to do with Reform is the PEOPLE involved.
To be very clear, there are plenty of excellent people in Reform. Reform has some very good Councillors, members and supporters. However look at their senior figures. If Zia Yusuf, Arron Banks, George Cottrell, Raheem Kassam or Nigel Farage asked to join the Conservative Party I very much hope the Conservative Party would tell them to get lost.
If Robert Jenrick or Suella Braverman were to claim to have seen the error of their ways and begged to return, it would be unbelievably foolish to take them at their word and welcome them back. So if Conservatives would not countenance letting Reform’s most senior elected and unelected figures into their Party then what sort of deal or agreement could there possibly be which wouldn’t leave the Conservative Party looking two-faced and untrustworthy?
The third issue with Reform is their POLICIES.
It has been noted that these have a habit of falling apart within a couple of days of being announced. It is not for nothing that Conservatives criticise Reform’s policies as having been “written on the back of a cigarette packet”. Who can forget “Farage’s ‘crackpot scheme’ to pay Taliban” to take back asylum seekers or Reform’s energy infrastructure policy which was downgraded to a ‘direction of travel’ after a few days of being almost universally rubbished? As the Conservative Party spends time and energy on developing clear, effective, evidenced policies, it would be disastrous to jump into bed with a Party whose polices are based on vibes and sounding tough.
The fourth and final issue is PRECEDENT (or, if you prefer, PRESIDENT).
As Allister Heath noted in his article, the Right has made very real mistakes in a number of countries around the World, when it has chosen populism over making the principled case for free markets, sound money and the rule of law. In the United States the Party of Reagan has become the Party of Trump and no Conservative should see that as an improvement. The fight for supremacy between the Conservative Party and Reform is a battle for the soul of the centre right and there is little doubt that Reform is the Trumpian option. The Conservatives are battling to ensure the UK’s leading right wing Party advocates serious policies, the power of markets & the dangers of big Government whilst Reform’s cosplay ‘Shadow Home Secretary’ is threatening to send CEOs to prison. Those who want to ‘Unite the Right’ should recognise this is a vital battle, not a silly skirmish.
None of that means the Conservative Party should stop working hard to earn the public’s support or that Reform supporters have a duty to back us – they do not. Nevertheless, over time, Conservatives need to persuade decent Reform supporters that they should vote for the Conservative Party. Some good people will not be persuaded and that is regrettable but there are no lazy, counterproductive shortcuts. The battle must be fought and won. Otherwise Labour will win and our country will lose.