Dr Austen Morgan is a barrister at 33 Bedford Row Chambers. His next book is: Bringing Boris Down: the politicisation of the civil service, forthcoming.
Having resigned as the MP for the constituency, Nigel Farage won the Clacton byelection on 13 August 2026. .
The leader of Reform UK had attracted much negative comment, but also some positive analysis – including from me. But is he now weaker, or stronger, in the fight he has picked with the House of Commons, where his eight MPs are cold-shouldered?
Two numbers from the contest, in which there were 34 mainly independent candidates, are crucial – though they go in opposite directions.
First, count Binface’s 9,455 votes. This means in theory that, if there were to be a recall petition – requiring the support of ten per cent of the electorate (which was 7,825 in the 2024 general election) – the parliamentarians could force Farage into a second by-election. That assumes the Binface-ites are simply and consistently anti-Farage.
Second, Farage’s own 22,239 votes. In the 2024 general election, with a turnout of 59 per cent, he secured 21,225 votes. In the by-election, with a turnout of 44 per cent (a very respectable figure, I might add), Farage put on another 1,014 votes, making this a remarkable result. True, the Westminster parties had boycotted the poll, but this was summer holiday time. The figure suggests that Farage could win a second, forced byelection, even – or indeed especially – with a unified parliamentary candidate against him.
By-elections will be concentrating minds in the Palace of Westminster, with normal business due to resume tomorrow. While Count Binface will affirm the idea of a recall petition, Farage’s electioneering over the summer might impress politicians and others with their recently acquired additional difficulty: why force a by-election which he will, ultimately, only win again?
Daniel Greenberg, the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, will resume his investigation of the £5 million gift from Christopher Harborne, the benefits in kind which were provided by George Cottrell and anything else anybody throws at Farage. This could take some time.
Greenberg will also have to take a preliminary view of Farage’s legal defence: the code of conduct ‘does not seek to regulate what Members do in their purely private and personal lives’. The precedents, such as they are, are not helpful to Farage.
Greenberg will then report to the Committee on Standards. This does include seven lay members, recruited by open competition. These worthies have tended to sit out political conflicts.
The Standards Committee’s magnificent seven – two Conservatives (including the chair, Alberto Costa), four Labour and one Liberal Democrat MP – are all sworn political opponents of Reform UK, even if they swear to leave their political loyalties at the door of the committee room. Anything could happen with Farage.
Finally – and this will be well into 2027 if there is no snap election – there is the independent expert panel, with more worthies, chaired by Sir Adrian Fulford, a retired court of appeal judge. The panel is constitutionally prohibited from judicially reviewing parliament, and, on the facts and the law, it is more likely than not to uphold the MPs ruling.
Nigel Farage – thus answering my question – returns from Clacton politically stronger, and deserves credit, as a good populist, for reading his electorate correctly.
But he faces a series of political challenges, all lined up at the same time: a new labour prime minister, running on tactics, and stroking a parliamentary party that is dominated by the northern queens; Kemi Badenoch, polling well personally, with an albatross of a party round her neck; events, dear boy, events, including fellow populists in Europe facing their own elections, and, at home – he hasn’t gone away you know – , Rupert Lowe and Restore Britain, proving that right sectarians are even more silly than their leftwing opposites.
In this political menu á la carte, Farage has chosen, as his main course, the Standards Committee of the House of Commons – to entertain us over the next year or so.
The ripple of standards through government, as a new political morality, dates from the 1990s, and Lord Nolan, a Catholic Law Lord. It has progressed, in the world of bureaucrats and quangocrats, but it may have reached its limits in the idea that parliament, peopled by MPs and peers, is still the ‘high court’ of Parliament.
Will Chairman Costa and his standards’ colleagues sit in judgment on Nigel Farage’s boozy hinterland, now including matters of Ann Widdecombe’s life and death? Or will the great south Londoner (and Kent wannabe) outwit the standards’ commissars as Lilliputian MPs trying to see off a political threat?
The struggle promises to be no less significant than that between Boris Johnson and the privileges committee, in 2022-23 – which he condemned as a ‘kangaroo court’ before resigning as a MP.
Dr Austen Morgan is a barrister at 33 Bedford Row Chambers. His next book is: Bringing Boris Down: the politicisation of the civil service, forthcoming.
Having resigned as the MP for the constituency, Nigel Farage won the Clacton byelection on 13 August 2026. .
The leader of Reform UK had attracted much negative comment, but also some positive analysis – including from me. But is he now weaker, or stronger, in the fight he has picked with the House of Commons, where his eight MPs are cold-shouldered?
Two numbers from the contest, in which there were 34 mainly independent candidates, are crucial – though they go in opposite directions.
First, count Binface’s 9,455 votes. This means in theory that, if there were to be a recall petition – requiring the support of ten per cent of the electorate (which was 7,825 in the 2024 general election) – the parliamentarians could force Farage into a second by-election. That assumes the Binface-ites are simply and consistently anti-Farage.
Second, Farage’s own 22,239 votes. In the 2024 general election, with a turnout of 59 per cent, he secured 21,225 votes. In the by-election, with a turnout of 44 per cent (a very respectable figure, I might add), Farage put on another 1,014 votes, making this a remarkable result. True, the Westminster parties had boycotted the poll, but this was summer holiday time. The figure suggests that Farage could win a second, forced byelection, even – or indeed especially – with a unified parliamentary candidate against him.
By-elections will be concentrating minds in the Palace of Westminster, with normal business due to resume tomorrow. While Count Binface will affirm the idea of a recall petition, Farage’s electioneering over the summer might impress politicians and others with their recently acquired additional difficulty: why force a by-election which he will, ultimately, only win again?
Daniel Greenberg, the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, will resume his investigation of the £5 million gift from Christopher Harborne, the benefits in kind which were provided by George Cottrell and anything else anybody throws at Farage. This could take some time.
Greenberg will also have to take a preliminary view of Farage’s legal defence: the code of conduct ‘does not seek to regulate what Members do in their purely private and personal lives’. The precedents, such as they are, are not helpful to Farage.
Greenberg will then report to the Committee on Standards. This does include seven lay members, recruited by open competition. These worthies have tended to sit out political conflicts.
The Standards Committee’s magnificent seven – two Conservatives (including the chair, Alberto Costa), four Labour and one Liberal Democrat MP – are all sworn political opponents of Reform UK, even if they swear to leave their political loyalties at the door of the committee room. Anything could happen with Farage.
Finally – and this will be well into 2027 if there is no snap election – there is the independent expert panel, with more worthies, chaired by Sir Adrian Fulford, a retired court of appeal judge. The panel is constitutionally prohibited from judicially reviewing parliament, and, on the facts and the law, it is more likely than not to uphold the MPs ruling.
Nigel Farage – thus answering my question – returns from Clacton politically stronger, and deserves credit, as a good populist, for reading his electorate correctly.
But he faces a series of political challenges, all lined up at the same time: a new labour prime minister, running on tactics, and stroking a parliamentary party that is dominated by the northern queens; Kemi Badenoch, polling well personally, with an albatross of a party round her neck; events, dear boy, events, including fellow populists in Europe facing their own elections, and, at home – he hasn’t gone away you know – , Rupert Lowe and Restore Britain, proving that right sectarians are even more silly than their leftwing opposites.
In this political menu á la carte, Farage has chosen, as his main course, the Standards Committee of the House of Commons – to entertain us over the next year or so.
The ripple of standards through government, as a new political morality, dates from the 1990s, and Lord Nolan, a Catholic Law Lord. It has progressed, in the world of bureaucrats and quangocrats, but it may have reached its limits in the idea that parliament, peopled by MPs and peers, is still the ‘high court’ of Parliament.
Will Chairman Costa and his standards’ colleagues sit in judgment on Nigel Farage’s boozy hinterland, now including matters of Ann Widdecombe’s life and death? Or will the great south Londoner (and Kent wannabe) outwit the standards’ commissars as Lilliputian MPs trying to see off a political threat?
The struggle promises to be no less significant than that between Boris Johnson and the privileges committee, in 2022-23 – which he condemned as a ‘kangaroo court’ before resigning as a MP.