Nick Biskinis is a volunteer advocate for public transport users in South London.
Sir James Cleverly’s entry to the Mayoral contest for the Conservatives is less surprising than Prince Harry’s return to the UK but nonetheless a potential fillip for the Tories.
Avuncular but also combative when necessary James Cleverly projects the big hitter the Conservatives need to effectively challenge not just Sadiq Khan but also Laila Cunningham of Reform who has established herself effectively across the media without the assistance of a large party machine.
And a serious challenge to Sadiq Khan is sorely needed.
There is a sense that London isn’t working. Whether the deteriorating reliability of the Tube and London Overground (graffitied trains, weekday shutdowns, endless closures), worsening bus services, litter and mob disorder, dying high streets, London does not look as though it is well run or heading in the right direction.
Sadiq Khan’s skill has largely been to successfully distract and blame Conservative governments for his failure, conjuring a cynical accusatory smokescreen when facing criticism – normally implying any criticism must be racist or ‘spreading misinformation about London’. For all his sloganeering around ‘diversity is our strength’, Sadiq Khan politically draws strength from division and crude identity auditing of issues.
Khan’s mediocre Mayoralty goes largely unchallenged in the media: he is rarely interviewed and when it does happen it usually is by fawning allies such as James O’Brien at LBC with the Evening Standard a particularly sycophantic cheerleader (the sad decline of the Standard another sign of London’s malaise).
London needs a dynamic but empathetic leader who can re-assure rather than engage in sociological word salads.
Yet the Conservatives must learn from past mistakes.
In 2015 the Party, despite inherent electoral weakness in London, actually was seen as having pulled off a shrewd move in selecting Zac Goldsmith as he was young, personable and seen as a liberal conservative in touch with London’s instincts. Sadly he turned out to be a dud as candidate, handing the Mayoralty to Sadiq Khan on a plate after having somnambulated for most of the campaign before engaging in crude identity politics about Khan’s background. Having damaged the Tory brand in London and losing various Parliamentary elections Zac Goldsmith repaid the party’s faith in him further by suggesting he was tempted to support Labour in the 2024 General Election.
Goldsmith’s defeat entrenched a belief the Tories had a London problem but that wasn’t a barrier to winning general elections. This explains the real missed opportunity to win the Mayoralty in 2021 when Shaun Bailey stood. Shaun was written off by commentors who confidently predicted Sadiq Khan would comfortably in the first round: in fact the first round was much closer and one BBC commentator remarked that some Tories were ruefully aware that Shaun might have won (or run Khan very close indeed in the second round) had he been given proper resources from Central Office. Ironically the ‘London doesn’t matter’ syndrome was driven from Number 10 by Boris Johnson the former Mayor who politically staked everything on the Northern Red Wall and taking anywhere south for granted (the Tories of course going on to lose the North and the South subsequently in 2024). Shaun was a good candidate without a party apparatus to support him, whilst Zac Goldsmith had the resources but no drive.
Susan Hall’s campaign was a conspicuous failure given that she is a doughty and tenacious advocate not least on the issue of crime in London. Her strategic mistake was to follow a doughnut strategy for London which assumed the Tories could win simply by getting out the Outer London vote and her vehicle for doing this would be opposition to ULEZ expansion (despite ULEZ having been a Conservative policy). Instead of playing to her strengths and focusing on crime as a pan-London issue, Susan’s campaign tonally revolved largely around opposing ULEZ, giving the impression she was running to be Mayor of Bromley not Mayor of London. Anyone who did not live in Outer London and drive to work would have heard little of direct relevance and her campaign sank.
Granted, the Tories are ‘stronger’ in Outer London, but a credible candidate must reflect a pan-London appeal even if the core vote is weighted in certain geographic areas. A Zone 6 Mayoral campaign will yield a Zone 6 result. The doughnut strategy is beyond stale and not safe for political consumption.
Ken Livingstone (arguably the most effective Mayor) fastened on transport as a key theme – one which chimes with many Londoners. Boris Johnson made crime his initial issue but was able to project an all-London political persona. Laila Cunningham similarly has made herself into the ‘crime fighting’ Mayoral candidate.
James Cleverly’s mistake though would be to try re-heated Boris Johnsonism. Many of Boris Johnson’s policies as Prime Minister have negatively impacted on the Capital: our gridlocked streets caused by pan-segregated cycle lanes and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in a bid to force people to cycle have created a transport policy that uniquely penalizes people taking public transport and motorists. Johnsonian bonhomie doesn’t do anything for someone stuck on bus for an hour trying to get to a hospital appointment.
James Cleverly has to spot a gap in the London political market – and the problems of public transport and crime provide that opportunity.
First is that he should have a theme of ‘Getting London Moving’ shifting TfL’s focus away from political environmentalism towards reliability and service quality on the buses, proper security, cleaning of the Tube and promoting accessibility. Floating bus stops should be halted and removed from key areas such as hospitals where those of reduced mobility are most likely to have to use them whilst ending the practice of taking out key bus lanes to become under-used cycle lanes. Heathrow expansion should be supported alongside better rail links.
The second is to be far more strident on crime and policing than his predecessors. Two-tier policing is a reality that alienates communities whilst promoting divisiveness. Endless weekend marches have depleted neighbourhood policing leading to soaring anti-social behaviour and losing shops business. Cleverly should publicly demand an end to two-tier policing and tolerance of incitement and intimidation within protests.
People need to see the local policing they pay for with their Council Tax.
And there lies an unanswered question: what does James Cleverly really stand for? When Suella Braverman criticized the Met for its two-tier approach to protests she was replaced as Home Secretary by Cleverly, on the basis he was unlikely to rock the boat. But London requires a Mayor that will be a champion and call out issues without reticence.
London is different to much of the country – but that doesn’t make it woke. There is a need for a Conservative alternative vision of London orientated to social and economic priorities so it works better for its citizens.
Fundamentally James Cleverly has to convey passion and unity with purposeful and pragmatic policies that cut across all boroughs through a campaign that is at the centre-stage of Londoners’ concerns, not bland tape-measure ‘centrism’ which sits in the middle of nowhere and lacks clarity. The coming months will show if James Cleverly is up to the task and Londoners are not condemned to another four years of drift and decline.