Henry Clifford is the former Head of Communications for Bright Blue
When it rained in London for the first time in months, I was delighted.
Although, as I am reminded by a text from Thames Water, “despite the recent rain, our hosepipe ban remains in place.” No surprise, given that much of the country is still – even as we go into September – officially in drought after up to 62 days with no rain at all. For reference, the all-time no rain record is 73 days, recorded in Mile End, 1893.
For much of the summer, temperatures in the south of England approached those hoped for by holidaymakers visiting Spain, while green spaces turned yellow day-by-day. Wildfires broke out across the continent and the Rhine ran low – massively interrupting German supply chains.
Keir Starmer was criticised by all the major parties before he left office over concerns that he was making a pony cull in Dartmoor inevitable. But not long after he assured the public no ponies would be killed, the New Forest caught ablaze forcing another set of ponies to flee for their lives. Cars and homes were lost to the fires. Thankfully, however, the ponies escaped.
This marks the second year in a row with record breaking heat, and a clear escalation in climate costs. Meanwhile, the right seems more interested in talking about what doesn’t work rather than what does.
Net-Zero is a thoroughly discredited policy for the present moment, but the picture is nuanced.
First, zero emissions in production without a measure on carbon costs of consumption merely makes the UK more expensive to produce within, without necessarily reducing our carbon consumption. The narrative that this has shifted manufacturing abroad is false; UK manufacturing hasn’t collapsed, but has struggled to grow. At a time when stagnation is doubly punished by rising inflation and out of control national debt, any impediment to growth is a serious issue for government. But we have significantly reduced our carbon consumption without de-growth, even including imported consumption.
Second, the absolutist mindset reduces flexibility to make sensible decisions over our vital resources; if we are buying oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, with their close-to-slave-labour conditions, then I think we ought be sending some of that money to Scottish drillers instead. This madness isn’t a direct response to Net-Zero, but it is a symptom of a mindset closely aligned to it.
Third, the promises that early adoption would lead to a second industrial revolution spawned from our islands have been shown to be false. As the US, EU, and China all massively outspend the UK on subsidising the industry needed to capture the majority of economic value, we are not able to take the world-leading position early Net-Zero advocates hoped for.
The clear drawbacks of Net-Zero shouldn’t entirely overshadow the benefits, however. Net-Zero has caused a massive shift in investment from dirty R&D toward clean R&D, with no loss in competitiveness overall. The UK holds the top position in the world in offshore wind innovation, with more technological advances made here than anywhere else, and we are seventh overall in green technology. The price of electricity produced from wind has fallen massively across the last two decades. Those savings haven’t passed onto consumers because international gas prices set the marginal cost, but the advances made in the UK are real.
Reform has led, and the Conservatives readily followed, a path of opposition to the policy. But in the present moment, opposition is not enough. The challenges are clear while the Conservative answer is a merely negative one. As the impacts of climate change are felt more acutely, having credible answers on how we will respond will only become more important, particularly with younger voters.
Our financial markets and innovation centres are among the best in the world. We have the capacity to play a key role in addressing climate change head on. Scrapping a self-destructive answer is not enough – we need to proactively use our strengths to find a new one. Any sensible policy would have to start by addressing electricity prices, whether through more investment in nuclear, renewables, we must start decoupling from volatile global markets in oil and gas.
We should also take a holistic look at our actual carbon impact; a policy which penalises British business and consumers is wrong, but a policy which balances actual global environmental costs is necessary.
Conservatives are usually averse to interfering with markets, but in a global market, countries unwilling to play an active role in shaping emerging sectors will be out-competed by players that are. Right now, we are a leading player in design and frontier technology in this area, partly because of our excellent education, culture, and historical inheritance, and partly because Net-Zero gave us a first-movers advantage. If we let these sectors wither, we are consigning ourselves to irrelevance and faster decline.
Henry Clifford is the former Head of Communications for Bright Blue
When it rained in London for the first time in months, I was delighted.
Although, as I am reminded by a text from Thames Water, “despite the recent rain, our hosepipe ban remains in place.” No surprise, given that much of the country is still – even as we go into September – officially in drought after up to 62 days with no rain at all. For reference, the all-time no rain record is 73 days, recorded in Mile End, 1893.
For much of the summer, temperatures in the south of England approached those hoped for by holidaymakers visiting Spain, while green spaces turned yellow day-by-day. Wildfires broke out across the continent and the Rhine ran low – massively interrupting German supply chains.
Keir Starmer was criticised by all the major parties before he left office over concerns that he was making a pony cull in Dartmoor inevitable. But not long after he assured the public no ponies would be killed, the New Forest caught ablaze forcing another set of ponies to flee for their lives. Cars and homes were lost to the fires. Thankfully, however, the ponies escaped.
This marks the second year in a row with record breaking heat, and a clear escalation in climate costs. Meanwhile, the right seems more interested in talking about what doesn’t work rather than what does.
Net-Zero is a thoroughly discredited policy for the present moment, but the picture is nuanced.
First, zero emissions in production without a measure on carbon costs of consumption merely makes the UK more expensive to produce within, without necessarily reducing our carbon consumption. The narrative that this has shifted manufacturing abroad is false; UK manufacturing hasn’t collapsed, but has struggled to grow. At a time when stagnation is doubly punished by rising inflation and out of control national debt, any impediment to growth is a serious issue for government. But we have significantly reduced our carbon consumption without de-growth, even including imported consumption.
Second, the absolutist mindset reduces flexibility to make sensible decisions over our vital resources; if we are buying oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, with their close-to-slave-labour conditions, then I think we ought be sending some of that money to Scottish drillers instead. This madness isn’t a direct response to Net-Zero, but it is a symptom of a mindset closely aligned to it.
Third, the promises that early adoption would lead to a second industrial revolution spawned from our islands have been shown to be false. As the US, EU, and China all massively outspend the UK on subsidising the industry needed to capture the majority of economic value, we are not able to take the world-leading position early Net-Zero advocates hoped for.
The clear drawbacks of Net-Zero shouldn’t entirely overshadow the benefits, however. Net-Zero has caused a massive shift in investment from dirty R&D toward clean R&D, with no loss in competitiveness overall. The UK holds the top position in the world in offshore wind innovation, with more technological advances made here than anywhere else, and we are seventh overall in green technology. The price of electricity produced from wind has fallen massively across the last two decades. Those savings haven’t passed onto consumers because international gas prices set the marginal cost, but the advances made in the UK are real.
Reform has led, and the Conservatives readily followed, a path of opposition to the policy. But in the present moment, opposition is not enough. The challenges are clear while the Conservative answer is a merely negative one. As the impacts of climate change are felt more acutely, having credible answers on how we will respond will only become more important, particularly with younger voters.
Our financial markets and innovation centres are among the best in the world. We have the capacity to play a key role in addressing climate change head on. Scrapping a self-destructive answer is not enough – we need to proactively use our strengths to find a new one. Any sensible policy would have to start by addressing electricity prices, whether through more investment in nuclear, renewables, we must start decoupling from volatile global markets in oil and gas.
We should also take a holistic look at our actual carbon impact; a policy which penalises British business and consumers is wrong, but a policy which balances actual global environmental costs is necessary.
Conservatives are usually averse to interfering with markets, but in a global market, countries unwilling to play an active role in shaping emerging sectors will be out-competed by players that are. Right now, we are a leading player in design and frontier technology in this area, partly because of our excellent education, culture, and historical inheritance, and partly because Net-Zero gave us a first-movers advantage. If we let these sectors wither, we are consigning ourselves to irrelevance and faster decline.