It’s that time again.
A few days defined by stress, ambition and possible frustration. I am, of course, referring to the latest tranche of seats that are to be contested. Trawling through pages upon pages of electoral history for each constituency, looking to see if there are any front runners for each of the seats – its a slog but if anyone is going to do it -it’s us (one person from an Association thought I was impersonating someone from ConservativeHome. Who would sink to such lows?).
But fret not, readers, for you can today find out all you need to know about tranche 2 of the seats the Conservatives most want sorted and on an electoral footing.
Congratulations to Hannah Ellis selected in Harlow where she fought the 2024 Election and where she got 13,809 votes but was beaten by Labour by 2504 votes. The seat was Rob Halfon’s but Ellis is due to be part of holding the Tory line in Essex at the next election. Reform were third in 2024 with 9461 votes.
North West Leicestershire
Current MP: Amanda Hack (Labour). Majority 1,012. Electorate at last election 77,757.
Andrew Bridgen, the former Tory MP turned anti-vaccine independent, was the MP for this seat since 2010, building up a strong majority over the years. As a result of his expulsion, however, he fell well short of victory in 2024, amassing just 1,568 votes.
The Conservative candidate in 2024, Craig Smith, secured 15,859 votes – narrowly losing out to Labour’s Amanda Hack. The process thus far has been kept under lock and key. Very few members of the Association wish to detail who any potential frontrunners may be, but ConservativeHome are aware that an expedited process is underway. No members of the Association, nor anyone who was close to the decision making process, were keen to discuss the process.
South West Norfolk
Current MP: Terry James (Labour). Majority 630. Electorate at last election 74,765.
Perhaps it’s a curse, perhaps it is a punishment for our ineptitude after 14 years of rule, but we are unable to rid ourselves of Liz Truss. The shortest serving PM is back in the spotlight given that her former seat of South West Norfolk is all to play for come the next election.
It remains unclear as to whether Truss will choose to stand for Parliament once again. In an episode of the Fighting for a Free Future podcast, she failed to rule out throwing her hat in the ring – and, more importantly, failed to say which party she would seek to stand for.
When I spoke to her earlier this year, she seemed unwilling to tie herself down to any party in particular. “There’s no political party at present in Britain that represents exactly what I think” she told me. When pushed on which party best represents her views – she artfully dodged the question, leading many to suspect that she’s flirting with the idea of Reform. Reform, however, are almost certainly never going to take her.
It’s highly unlikely that the Tories would allow her to stand again too. Word on the Tory grapevine is that LOTO are eager for any reason to kick her out of the party, and so the chance of her being approved as even a prospective candidate is near zero.
Ely and East Cambridgeshire
Current MP: Charlotte Cane (Liberal Democrat). Majority 495. Electorate at last election 79,112.
A newly formed seat at the 2024 General Election, Ely and East Cambridgeshire was made up of South East Cambridgeshire, South Cambrideshire and North East Cambridgeshire. It was previously regarded as a safe Tory seat, being held by Francis Pym, Sir Jim Paice and, most recently, Lucy Frazer.
Frazer enjoyed very strong majorities prior to 2024, but her vote share dropped by 22.2 per cent in the last election – with the Liberal Democrats sneaking in. A Liberal Democrat win in Cambridgeshire is hardly surprising. A university city with socially liberal tendencies – it was always a likely scenario. But with a majority of less than 500, it is clear that the Tories are keen to win it back.
Suffolk Coastal
Current MP: Jenny Riddell-Carpenter (Labour). Majority 1,070. Electorate at last election 74,522.
If there was any specific requirement for being Health Secretary, it is perhaps that one should be as unhealthy as humanly possible. No better was this exemplified than when Therese Coffey was photographed with a cigar in one hand and a glass of bubbly in the other.
Her old seat of Suffolk Coastal has just opened applications for possible candidates. Speaking to one individual familiar with the process in the constituency, they remarked that it was “extremely unlikely” that the former Deputy PM would look to stand again, adding that there are “no obvious frontrunners” for the candidacy, owing to a high “quality field of candidates.”
A number of potential candidates were spotted out campaigning yesterday. Jonathan Iliff, who previously stood in Bermondsey, was present, as was Alex Bright – who was a former advisor to Coffey.
Sitting Labour MP Riddell-Carpenter is the source of the story – and a good deal of ridicule- for suggesting at a Labour Conference fringe event that warm beer, black Labradors and a country pub were part of some ‘far right fantasy’ of rural life. This led to the Conservative Party Chairman Kevin Holinrake drinking a beer on the Conference stage before introducing his black Labrador Zuzu on stage, to a standing ovation!
North Northumberland
Current MP: David Smith (Labour). Majority 5,067. Electorate at last election 74,190.
Diligent readers of ConservativeHome will recognise that our wonderful columnist Anne-Marie Trevelyan has strong ties to this particular seat. As the MP for Berwick-upon-Tweed from 2015 till 2024, the seat was abolished and replaced with North Numberland, which Trevelyan contested in 2024.
She lost to David Smith from the Labour Party, having secured 12,788 votes to his 17,855 – a close to 30 per cent drop from her previous result in 2019 of 29,497. As of right now, it is “unlikely” that she will put herself forward for the contest, but word amongst those familiar with the situation have recognised that there are a number of younger individuals who are eager to challenge for the seat instead.
Altrincham and Sale West
Current MP: Connor Rand (Labour). Majority 4,174. Electorate at last election 74,026.
Graham Brady, now Lord Brady of Altrincham, was the MP for this constituency from 2010 until 2024. He did not contest the seat in 2024, with Oliver Carroll running for the Tories instead. The Tories received 16,624 votes in the 2024 election, falling short of Labour’s 20,798.
According to members of the Association, Laura Evans, who currently serves as the Deputy Chairman for Membership, is the frontrunner to secure the nomination. Laura Evans was the Conservative Party mayoral candidate for Greater Manchester in 2024, and previously labelled Andy Burnham as an “utter and total failure.”
Ribble Valley
Current MP: Maya Ellis (Labour). Majority 856. Electorate at last election 80,484.
Ribble Valley was Nigel Evans’ former seat from 1992 up until 2024. He has already put his name forward, and it was rumoured that he sought to be selected as the candidate without a normal contest. However, over the weekend, it was revealed that the Ribble Valley Conservative Association held a secret ballot to decide whether this would be the case. The two thirds majority was not met.
The reality is, though, having spoken to both Nigel Evans and others in the association, that it is the case that, a few hours before the vote took place, Evans informed the Chair of his desire for the motion to be voted down. Owing to the fact that the seat is split three ways between the Tories, Reform and Labour, Evans stated that he wanted a fair contest that would select the best possible candidate. And, if that candidate happens to be someone other than him, then so be it.
Stephen Atkinson, the current Reform leader of Lancashire County Council, is tipped to be running as the Reform candidate in the seat too – with Electoral Calculus putting the three parties within three per cent of one another.
Ashford
Current MP: Sojan Joseph (Labour). Majority 1,779. Electorate at last election 76,212.
Ashford was formerly the seat of Damian Green, who served as MP from 1997 until 2024. Having spoken to local members, they have remarked that it was a seat that the Tories “should never have lost.” The selection process began last Friday, and CVs are to be submitted over the course of this week.
One candidate who has put his name forward is Councillor Paul Bartlett, who is the Deputy Leader of the Conservative Group. It was mentioned a number of times by members that Ashford has one of the strongest Tory demographics in the country, and this is, in part, why local association members feel that they should never have lost to Labour.
East Wiltshire
Current MP: Danny Kruger (Reform, having defected from the Conservatives). Majority when elected as a Conservative MP 5716. Electorate at last election 72,409.
Danny Kruger is a man who needs no introduction. A former brainbox for the Tories, he’s now a vigorous cheerleader for Nigel Farage, Kruger’s seat of East Wiltshire has a relatively strong majority – though how much this is down to Kruger himself and how much is down to the Conservative brand is unclear. Last time out, Reform secured 7,885 votes.
Having spoken to MPs and former MPs in neighbouring constituencies, however, many have expressed doubt over whether Kruger can keep hold of the seat. One individual who is familiar with the area remarked that the constituents are loyal to a party, not a candidate. Kruger’s defection, then, carries a significant risk that the local population will side with whoever the Conservative candidate is.
Lichfield
Current MP: David Robertson (Labour). Majority 810. Electorate at last election 76,118.
Lichfield is Michael Fabricant’s former seat and, at the moment, it is unclear if he is going to stand again. There is set to be a get together later this month for all potential candidates to explain to the Association why they are best positioned to run.
It has been said that a number of would-be candidates have already put their names forward for the constituency – though, much like North West Leicestershire, people were not too keen to discuss specifics and names.
ConservativeHome will continue to provide updates when future tranches are released.