The day after the budget and utter confusion in Labour ranks about when and how they might do what they insist they will do and cut the Welfare Bill but “in a Labour way” – which to every Conservative sounds like never cutting it at all and just spending more. The issue between Chancellor John Healey on the airwaves, Number Ten freaking out about deadlines and targets, the Prime Minister explaining what Healy really meant – ironic when he’s often having to explain what he meant – and by last night a clarification by the Chancellor that was almost the opposite of what he styarted the day saying.
It makes more sense if, despite insisting again it wasn’t happening, the PM is indeed contemplating the timing of an election and not necessarily seeing 2029 as the only option. All of this has put an urgency into candidate selection so once again it’s time to list Conservative selections advertised in the third tranche of seats, and take a look at the constituencies and the current state of play.
First though some recent results:
Ameet Jogia, Head of International at CCHQ, a Harrow Councillor and a former number 10 adviser has been selected as candidate in Hendon. He lost out to Labour in 2024 by just 15 votes.
Tom Bennett has been selected as candidate in Chelsea and Fulham. A councillor, he is currently Lead Member for Modernisation and Change at Kensington and Chelsea Council.
David Morris is a former MP, who lost his seat in 2024 and has been selected in Morecome and Lunesdale, an area he knows very well as well as knowing one Andy Burnham as a local political rival while he was Manchester Mayor.
David Thompson has taken over the baton from MP Helen Grant, winning in the first ballot, as Conservative candidate for Maidstone and Malling and you can read about his selection here.
Carol Traves has become the candidate for Poole. A local Verwood Town councillor, chartered town planner, and business owner.
So what’s up for grabs for those looking to become a Conservative candidate?
Current MP: Daniel Francis (Labour) majority, 2114. Electorate on 4th July 2024: 70,297 Turnout 61.8%
This is a seat held by former Tory whip David Evenett from 2005 where Reform’s vote of 9861 did have an effect in 2024, on the fate of new Conservative candidate Mark Brooks 13,603 given Labour won with 15,717. Since being elected Mr Francis has managed to dig up a campaign about pot holes in the constituency that he raised in the House, with the then Prime Minister Keir Starmer in 2025. He visited every road in the constituency to point them out.
Current MP: Sarah Russell (Labour) majority, 3,387. Electorate on 4th July 2024: 74,243 Turnout 67.5%
Russell, who beat Fiona Bruce – who got 15,488 – is a Burnham backer who was a big fan of the creation of Number 10 North: ” “Andy’s promise of a Number 10 North is really positive for our communities.” Reform UK got 8,245 so not close enough to challenge the lead two, but nearly three times the winning margin. However Conservative Fiona Bruce, who had been Congleton MP since 2010 and won four general elections was defending a majority of 18,000. Making the loss of the seat one of the big upsets of a very hard night for the Tories.
Current MP: John Milne (Liberal Democrat) majority, 2,517 Electorate on 4th July 2024: 79,150 Turnout 70.1%
Jeremy Quin who’d held ministerial roles and ended his time as an MP as Chir of the Defence Select Committee 19,115 lost his seat to the Liberal Democrats in a seat where Labour came behind Reform UK. Reform were third but still got more than the winning margin on 6,116. The Conservatives will think they do have a real chance to turn this around at the next election but it won’t be easy. Six months after the election John Milne whose election overturned 144 years of Conservative representation in the town and surrounding villages, referred himself to the Parliamentary authorities over his son having a parliamentary pass.
Current MP: Alex Baker (Labour) majority, 5683 Electorate on 4th July 2024:
78,553 Turnout 61.8%
Leo Docherty was MP in this seat with strong military connections and was a former Foreign Office Minister when I worked in FCDO for the then Foreign Secretary. He was also Minister for the Armed Forces. Leo, with his signature sideburns, secured 14,081 but Labour won with 19,764. Reform got just over half that. Another seat where their vote was higher than the winning margin. Alex Baker who won the seat, the first female MP for the constituency, is on the Defence Select Committee. Baker also voted against assisted dying.
Current MP: Olivia Baily (Labour) majority, 1,361 Electorate on 4th July 2024: 68,781 Turnout 67.7%
Smaller win than the seats so far for Labour 16,273 to Conservative Ross Mackinnon 14,912 a local councillor in this seat created by boundary changes for 2024. Former Minister Alok Sharma held Reading West from 2010. Sharma was twice a Cabinet minister and the president for the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) and negotiated the Glasgow Climate Pact. Olivia Baily was made an education Minister in Starmer’s first reshuffle but was removed by Andy Burnham’s first reshuffle.
Current MP: Anna Gelderd (Labour) majority, 1,911 Electorate on 4th July 2024: 72,654 Turnout 67.8%
Another narrower Labour 15,670 gain from the Tories’ Sheryl Murray, 13,759 one of Westminster’s genuine characters, and always cheerful, though 2024 saw a hard 31.1% change in her previous vote. Reform UK picked up 9,311. This seat in the South West has less Liberal Democrat presence coming fourth not far off the Reform vote.
Anna Gelderd one of Labour’s younger MPs has been a very local voice in terms of her time in Westminster with no major moment in Parliament.
Current MP: Lloyd Hatton (Labour) majority, 1,048 Electorate on 4th July 2024: 75,924 Turnout 64.6%
Another narrow Labour win on 15,659 defeating Tory MP Richard Drax 14,611, who was once a TV reporter for the BBC. Between Reform and the Lib Dems they got just over the winning count but equally divided. Look out for the waste incinerator in Portland being an issue anyone applying will need to get across. Lloyd Hatton was no fan of the floating asylum seeker centre the Bibi Stockholm but it’s been hard to find any defence of asylum hotels or private rented accommodation HMOs.
Current MP: Cat Eccles (Labour) majority, 3,073 Electorate on 4th July 2024: 68,311Turnout 58.4%
The lowest turnout of this batch which should interest any candidate wanting to take on a seat. Cat Eccles won for Labour 15,338 over Suzanne Webb 12,265. Suzanne was PPS to Liz Truss which is tough when it comes towards 2024. Suzanne has retired from politics and is the owner of a locally well known dog called ‘Sydney Pickles’. Cat Eccles saw Stourbidge at the heart of Andy Burnham’s wild fire summit over the summer as the area faced a number of serious incidents.
Current MP: Jade Botterill (Labour) majority, 4,542 Electorate on 4th July 2024: 72,312 Turnout 60.7%
Slightly bigger win for Labour’s Jade Botterill in 2024 beating Tory Mark Eastwood 12 690. That may have been necause Mark had been MP for Dewsbury from 2019. Boris and Liz Truss supporter Mark had to fight 2024 in the new constituency of Osset and Denby Dale formed from parts of the former Wakefield, Dewsbury and Hemsworth constituencies. Jade Botterill is a whip and was once PPS to Yvette Cooper. Her maiden speech contained a line, that might well have resonated with the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham when she paid tribute to her Mum who was in the gallery “My mum is so committed to the north that this is her first ever trip to London – proof, were it ever needed, that us northerners only come south if somebody makes us.”