Andrew Allison is Head of Campaigns for PopularConservatism.
In the St James ward in Dudley last week, Reform polled 37.9 per cent, the Conservatives 13.8 per cent, and Restore 6.9 per cent. Add that up and the right-wing vote totalled 58.6 per cent, but Labour won the seat by just two votes.
Results like this are becoming more commonplace, and although there are examples of the left-wing vote splitting, these are rarer. The left is, by and large, much better at coming together to defeat candidates of the right – something we appear to be incapable of doing the other way around.
As I commented in this piece for ConservativeHome in August, since 1979, parties of the left have polled more votes in general elections than parties of the right, apart from 2015, the election which saw the Liberal Democrats punished for their part in the coalition government and a surge in support for UKIP.
I also commented that parties on the right should start by being, at the very least, civil to one another. But in the intervening three months, instead of an improvement, matters have got worse with Kemi Badenoch stating that she would never enter into a coalition with Reform – even if by not doing so would give the left victory, and defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman have said that they would never enter into a coalition with the Conservatives.
As I see it, five distinct paths lie ahead for the right and the choice(s) made could shape the future of British politics for many years to come.
Option one is exactly what we see today: the status quo. A civil war. A circular firing squad. Reform UK, the Conservatives, and Restore Britain all aggressively locked in a turf war for the same pool of voters. They continue to tear chunks out of each other and each other’s polling numbers; they trade insults on the airwaves and continue to divide the right-wing electorate.
The mathematical reality of this is another Labour Government or a left-wing coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Andy Burnham has already paved the way for a coalition by promising closer ties to the EU and voting reform. If anyone thinks this is the right option, they need their head examined.
Then there is option two: the ‘nod and a wink’ strategy which has worked well for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens in recent years. Parties on the right cooperate with each other locally. Formal alliances are not announced publicly, but activists have an understanding with each other at the constituency level. They implicitly agree not to aggressively campaign against each other. They divert their resources elsewhere and let the most viable local candidate take the unofficial fight to the left. Although this is a far from perfect strategy, it is much better than the status quo.
Option three is the next level up. Candidates are stood down to leave just one right-wing candidate on the ballot paper. This means looking at the electoral data and being honest about your chances. If a party has no realistic path to victory in a specific seat, they simply don’t field a candidate. Instead, they clear the lane for whichever alternative party of the right actually has the numbers to win.
There are always plenty of objections when this is proposed. ‘Conservative voters should always have an opportunity to vote for a Conservative candidate, irrespective of the chance of winning a particular seat’, is usually the reply. I can see why people say that, but in an era of multi-party politics, fielding candidates in some seats almost ensures that a left-wing party wins. Look at Dudley. This option requires swallowing pride to avoid mutually assured destruction, ensuring that the right-wing vote consolidates behind a single, strongest challenger.
Option four looks back to history: a modern ‘Coupon Election’ mimicking the 1918 general election where David Lloyd-George and Bonar Law issued letters of endorsement – known as coupons – to chosen candidates. This guaranteed a landslide victory of the coalition which had governed Britain during the First World War.
This would be a comprehensive, top-down electoral pact where candidates from different parties stand together on a unified ticket. In practice, Reform UK gives Kemi Badenoch a clear run in her constituency, while the Conservatives return the favour by refusing to field a candidate against Nigel Farage in his. But it is much bigger than that. All constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales would have a coupon candidate. It would maximise the amount of seats won and construct an iron-clad coalition before a single ballot is even cast. No dodgy deals in back rooms. Voters would know exactly what they are voting for.
And finally, option five: a merger of the three parties to create a singular, unified party of the British right. And before you choke on your cornflakes, I am not advocating this option and I know that it simply isn’t going to happen, so let’s park it straight away.
Conservatives, Reformers and Restorers must accept reality. None of those parties are likely to form a majority in the House of Commons after the next general election. Indeed, at the rate we are going under option one, Andy Burnham is likely to win a majority for Labour on just 30 per cent of the vote.
My preference would be for option four – a coupon election, but I would settle for option three. My biggest fear, though, is that we are going to continue all the way to polling day using option one, with a little bit of option two sprinkled in because local Conservative activists decide that having a Labour or Liberal Democrat MP is worse than someone from Reform, and Reform activists think the same about the Conservatives. But hope is not a strategy.
Those who know me know that I am usually optimistic, but I am not feeling that way about the next general election – whenever that will be. Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg – with whom I normally agree on just about everything – said recently that it may be the patriotic duty of Reformers and Restorers to vote Conservative to ensure that there isn’t a left-wing coalition. He is wrong: in some seats it may be the other way round, and Tories will have to hold their noses and vote Reform to prevent a Labour or Liberal Democrat win. It is the patriotic duty of all parties of the right to put egos and historic animosity to one side. If they seek to lead the whole country, it is about time that they showed some leadership in making that a realistic outcome. Fight socialism, not those with whom most policies match or overlap. Blue on turquoise and turquoise on blue only make a nightmare of reds, yellows and greens the most likely winners.
But that socialist rainbow can be avoided if fire is redirected outwards towards the shared enemies on the left. It is the patriotic duty of all parties of the right to put ego and animosity to one side. It is those parties who seek to lead, and it is about time that they showed some leadership in this direction and stopped behaving worse than ten-year-olds in a playground.