David Gauke is a former Justice Secretary, and was an independent candidate in South-West Hertfordshire at the 2019 general election.
“Which way are you voting?”
It is a simple question. For most of my life, it has had a straightforward answer. My politics have always been on the centre right, although the emphasis used to be more on the right and now it is more on the centre. For seven general elections – from 1992 to 2017 – I voted and campaigned for the Conservatives, in five of them as a Parliamentary candidate.
Then came 2019. This was more complicated. I thought the Tory Party had taken a disastrous turn for the worse. It had chosen a leader who I believed was unfit for high office, its principal policy – a hard Brexit – was reckless and irresponsible, and the style of politics was only going to destroy public trust. At the same time, the Opposition was led by a dangerous crank. What to do?
I could have voted (with limited enthusiasm) for the Liberal Democrats but solved my quandary by standing myself. That, at least, made my answer very straightforward. What about this time?
That was the question asked by the acting editor of ConservativeHome when discussing the contents of this column.
Let us run through the options. To the surprise of no one, I can rule out voting for Reform. I am sure that they will come to terms with the news. The Greens will also definitely not get my vote. They have plenty of diligent and likable councillors but as a national party are of the far-left. They are not for me.
Labour has come a long way since 2019. Keir Starmer is decent, intelligent, and no threat to national security. The latter point should be a given, but could not be said about his predecessor. Rachel Reeves will make a responsible Chancellor of the Exchequer.
In other words, a Labour government does not keep me awake at night. That is not, however, enough to win my support, at least not in a seat where victory would give them a massive majority. It might well be time for a change but I worry about their instincts that government can fix nearly all problems. I like Reeves’ fiscal rectitude and Wes Streeting’s talk of reform, but what happens if things go wrong? In those circumstances, I can see them heading leftwards again. I would be happy to be proven wrong, but I still have my doubts.
Then we come to the Liberal Democrats. To some extent, I ought to be their target voter – a Home Counties Remainer who thinks the Tories have gone too far to the right. The 2010 version of the party probably would have my vote sewn up, although I might have been put off by their foolish policy to abolish tuition fees. In general, they were fiscally responsible, pro-business, supportive of public sector reform, led by a group of impressive and sensible figures, and conveying a sense that they wanted to be in power.
This time around, however, we have a reversion to the party of 2001 and 2005. These were, of course, very good election years for the Lib Dems in terms of seats but, I always wondered, to what purpose. Yes, there were a few dozen Lib Dem MPs and, by and large, they worked very hard for their constituents (and in doing so, changed the nature of MPs’ working lives) but they remained a party of protest.
In this campaign, they have successfully highlighted two issues – social care and sewage (they are in favour of the former and against the latter) – but have not particularly advanced a serious policy agenda on either. They favour rejoining the EU Single Market – a genuinely consequential policy – but do not want to talk about it.
They also have a lot of silly policies, such as demanding that several live Premier League games should be broadcast on free-to-air television. As for planning, it is hard to take seriously a party that justifies its nimbyism because developers build houses that “no one can afford”.
Now for the Conservatives. The party has lost its way. There are sharply conflicting views on how and why this has happened and I set out my opinion on these pages a couple of weeks ago. It is hard to see how the Tories could function in office after 4 July but that is no longer the issue facing the country as it goes to the polls.
The Conservatives are going to lose office and, after Partygate and the mini-budget, it is hard to argue that it is undeserved. Sunak is diligent, clever, and, for the most part, well-intentioned but is a poor politician. He inherited a very bad hand and has played it badly. The scale of the defeat will be historic.
There is a question then for people like me who are traditional, centrist Conservatives. Should we participate in the punishment beating in the hope that the Tories learn their lesson, abandon the populist approach of recent years, and eventually re-establish themselves as the centre ground or be replaced by an entity that will? Or should we come to the aid of the party to enable it to survive? Establishing an alternative vehicle for centre-right politics will be immensely difficult; trying to re-establish a sensible Tory Party may be the least worst option.
The strength of these arguments is dependent upon who is standing in individual constituencies. There are Conservative candidates who, if elected, will play a very constructive role in rebuilding the party so that it rejects Faragism and populism in general, seeks to re-establish its credentials for economic competence, and once again appeals to younger and graduate voters. And some candidates will not.
In constituencies where there are candidates who fall into the former category, I would vote for them. Not out of enthusiasm for another five years of Conservative government but because our politics would be better for them being in Parliament and, ultimately, facilitating the return of a more attractive form of centre-right politics.
I cannot give an exhaustive list but there are Ministers (Jeremy Hunt, Alex Chalk, Mel Stride, Victoria Prentis, Tom Tugendhat, Damian Hinds, Bim Afolami), backbenchers (Caroline Nokes, Karen Bradley) and new candidates (Nigel Gardner who is standing in part of my old seat, and the highly capable Rupert Harrison) who would get my vote.
If, however, I feared that the Tory candidate would tolerate a further drift to the right, my quandary would not be resolved. My vote would still be in doubt. As none of the other parties appeal, in those circumstances perhaps then a protest vote is called for.
As it happens, I looked at the list of candidates in my constituency and saw that there was a candidate for the Rejoin EU Party. A vote for him might just send a very small message not so much for now but where the country might want to go in the future. I might be tempted.