For all the hope of bringing renewed dynamism to the British economy, Reform UK will not have assembled a pro-growth electoral coalition. The country may well need a brave and radical government, but the populist right – including Reform UK – is not going to provide it.
The Government – hoping to change the subject from scheduled fuel duty rises – accused fuel retailers of “price gouging” or“profiteering” despite no evidence to support that. Tory opposition is smart but short term. None of it addresses the realities of the public finances.
Wanting the US action against Iran to replace an evil regime with something much better is one thing, but the odds were always that is not going to be the case. In such circumstances, reticence in supporting the US was not a moral failure, but perfectly sensible.
This was a by-election that showed political support is fragmenting. Neither of the two traditional parties finished in the top two. The Greens got over 40 per cent of the vote but we’re now in a world where MPs will win with a vote share of just a third or even lower.
A move to the left will mean that more centrist voters will be up for grabs. It is a huge opportunity that the Conservative Party cannot afford to miss.
This isn’t about putting forward easy simplistic answers to complex problems because we know that rarely works and there’s plenty of others filling that space. It’s a serious centre right organisation making the case for growth and developing credible proposals.
The emphasis on the economy that has been pursued since Conference is beginning to bear results , with the Tories overtaking Labour and closing the gap with Reform. With the salience of immigration falling, that shift in approach has been vindicated.
Offer a credible economic plan; demonstrate a determination to solve problems, not just exploit them; recognise that lessons have been learnt from the Tory time in office.
It’s not so much the measures in the Budget that matter but the confirmation that this is a Labour Government in its comfort zone, led by a Prime Minister and a Chancellor who can’t or won’t challenge their party’s instincts and prejudices on the economy.
My biggest concern over all of this is that it proves to be a distraction from a bigger issue – strengthening the capacity of the probation service, whose workload is about to increase hugely.
The principal concern – and this is no small matter – is that the Greens’ policies would be ruinous for the country but taking them on in a changing political landscape, it is an opportunity not to be missed.
There may be good arguments why we do not want to trade with a country or, at the least, putting barriers in place. We should certainly be sanctioning Russia, and there are good reasons to be wary about China. But these are not cost free choices.
The territory of the traditional centre right is unoccupied and unthreatened by the other parties. The question remains, however, whether this is the space that the Conservative Party wants to occupy.
The real significance of Kruger’s defection is that it signals that the battle to be the principal party of the populist right is over. The Conservative Party must reconcile itself to this reality and reinvent itself as, once again, a party of the centre right.
Prosper UK wants to give voice to a yearning for politics that is serious, realistic, and pragmatic. Focused on the economy and willing to face up to trade-offs. That understands that business matters, as does credibility with investors.