Tomorrow is the Budget. Ergo, one must write about the Budget today, tomorrow and the day after. It’s a rather boring ordeal. Every right-of-centre commentator will spew the same lines, arguing that tax hikes are bad, welfare should be reined in and defence should be funded properly. Meanwhile, those on the left will say tax hikes are great, welfare is most definitely not spiralling out of control, and that we should just make do like Costa Rica.
At a time when Britain’s national debt tops £3tn and borrowing rates soar out of control, both Burnham and Healey have their work cut out for them. The shine looks set to come off the Prime Minister, as his Chancellor will be forced to make some unpopular decisions at the despatch box.
But thus far, it seems as though Mr Healey will be avoiding such difficult decisions. Rather than standing at the despatch box, bellowing to the House of Commons’ Chamber about how he is willing to be the unpopular bookkeeper, the bald man occupying Number 11 is expected to instead deliver a rather dull Budget.
Take last night as a prime example. Andy Burnham announced five “everyday fixes” ahead of Wednesday, one of which includes the creation of hundreds more Post Office drop boxes, in an effort to stop people from having to queue at branches. Magnificent, truly. If one was so desperate to find a modern example of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, they need look no further than this.
Or, if one requires further convincing, take the fact that the Chancellor is set to increase the minimum wage for over 21s from £12.71 to more than £13. Forget the fact that doing so will likely have a negative impact on the NEETs crisis, and actually push youth unemployment even higher, doesn’t everyone like more money?
It’s yet another feels-good policy which doesn’t actually take aim at the systemic challenges facing Britain. Providing breathing space is wonderful, Andy, but unless someone is prepared to stand up and make difficult decisions then things won’t be too great.
But maybe the Prime Minister doesn’t want to deliver a groundbreaking Budget. Perhaps he wants to use the Budget as an opportunity. A platform, so to speak, to lay out his vision for the country. To turn around and provide the British public with a glimpse of what is to come if they just give Burnham the opportunity to break free from the shackles of the 2024 Labour Manifesto.
And this, I fear, is where a supposedly ‘dull Budget’ becomes far more sinister. My hunch is that Burnham will use tomorrow as a chance to go early, and to call an election. Rather annoyingly, my Editor spoke of this yesterday, as did almost every other media outlet, but the announcements laid out by the PM last night have only reinforced my suspicions.
Announcing a series of “everyday fixes” which aren’t too costly, and which are considered by almost everyone to be popular is symptomatic of a mindset within Number 10. They offer the public a sort of amuse bouche of Burnhamism.
And the Tories are worried about such a prospect. They might not let it show, but everyone knows it to be the case. Many associations are yet to select, or indeed readopt candidates, money is tight and manpower is very much lacking. One MP I spoke to put the chance of a December election at 25 per cent, the chance of a May election next year at 70 per cent, and the chance of Burnham waiting until 2029 at 5 per cent. Or, as another MP put it to me, “we’re all shitting ourselves.”
And yet, the more Burnham reiterates that an early election is not in the public interest, the more I become convinced. Like any good conspiracy theorist, the more people tell you that you’re crazy, the more you believe yourself to be right. Both Boris Johnson and Theresa May said that an early election was off the cards just months before they called them. Convention would suggest, therefore, that Burnham will in fact go early.
So, to those obsessing over tomorrow’s numbers, might I leave you with a warning? Healey’s speech may well be bland, dull and utterly unremarkable. You might sit there, wondering where this supposed return to 1970s-style socialism is. Perhaps you will be a little deflated, owing to the fact that you had placed a bet on Healey having to ask the IMF for a post-Budget bailout.
But remind yourself that a dull Budget need not be an inconsequential one. Because tomorrow may well mark the day where Burnham began the process of untangling himself from his predecessor’s 2024 promises. Perhaps I will be wrong, and I very much hope to be, but I fear the stars are aligning for those in Number 10.