The emphasis on the economy that has been pursued since Conference is beginning to bear results , with the Tories overtaking Labour and closing the gap with Reform. With the salience of immigration falling, that shift in approach has been vindicated.
Offer a credible economic plan; demonstrate a determination to solve problems, not just exploit them; recognise that lessons have been learnt from the Tory time in office.
It’s not so much the measures in the Budget that matter but the confirmation that this is a Labour Government in its comfort zone, led by a Prime Minister and a Chancellor who can’t or won’t challenge their party’s instincts and prejudices on the economy.
My biggest concern over all of this is that it proves to be a distraction from a bigger issue – strengthening the capacity of the probation service, whose workload is about to increase hugely.
The principal concern – and this is no small matter – is that the Greens’ policies would be ruinous for the country but taking them on in a changing political landscape, it is an opportunity not to be missed.
There may be good arguments why we do not want to trade with a country or, at the least, putting barriers in place. We should certainly be sanctioning Russia, and there are good reasons to be wary about China. But these are not cost free choices.
The territory of the traditional centre right is unoccupied and unthreatened by the other parties. The question remains, however, whether this is the space that the Conservative Party wants to occupy.
The real significance of Kruger’s defection is that it signals that the battle to be the principal party of the populist right is over. The Conservative Party must reconcile itself to this reality and reinvent itself as, once again, a party of the centre right.
The reality is that if you want to raise a lot of tax, you need to raise it from a lot of people. Given our predicament, one of the larger taxes is likely to be necessary.
Pro-market arguments are hardly the fashion at the moment. If ever there was a policy area, however, where they need to be made it is in housing.
Is it politically possible to take preventative action to put our public finances on a sustainable footing before a crisis hits? Or will it take a crisis before the public (and, therefore, our politicians) recognise what needs to be done?
What we have seen in recent days have been very clear examples of the vulnerabilities of both the centre-left and the populist right. These are vulnerabilities that a smart centre-right party ought to be able to exploit.
Even after prioritising capital spending, the spending review is not delivering substantially higher levels of investment in economic infrastructure. This is not going to be transformative for growth.
Prosper UK wants to give voice to a yearning for politics that is serious, realistic, and pragmatic. Focused on the economy and willing to face up to trade-offs. That understands that business matters, as does credibility with investors.