The moral of this story is that these models provide interesting context – a little like horoscopes. But when it comes to decision-making, give me an economic historian in preference to a model any day.
There is a political storm raging but becalmed in the eye of the storm is the economy. A tale of two halves, this is a result of both global forces and self-inflicted woes.
It is the economy that will make or break the Government. We cannot afford not to stimulate innovation and creative destruction.
For too long, the only organisations in this space have been big-business lobbies with a relentlessly negative attitude towards leaving the European Union.
The doom-mongers and nay-sayers grumble out of self-interest. Meanwhile, Brexit Britain is strong and set to grow stronger.
We must insist that an “in principle” agreement on trade be reached by the end of March 2018 – otherwise the EU will have us over a barrel.
My years of experience of the Whitehall machine tells me that the Government will have a fight on its hands. Ministers must push for reform.
The Supreme Court hears the Government’s appeal this week. Ministers must get on with moving Article 50 as quickly as possible.
Jeremy Hunt should be finding ways to encourage businesses to launch and grow in the United Kingdom, not squeezing them out.