This month’s ratings bear the mark of a leadership election that many Tory activists clearly found unsatisfactory.
These results are in effect identical to a YouGov poll published earlier today. If both we and they are right, Sunak needs a massive game-changer to turn this contest round – and he’s running out of time.
The Prime Minister’s score is still dire: he is back in positive ratings, but not by very much. Though a substantial minority of the panel want him on the leadership election ballot and/or would vote for him had they the option, a larger majority of it does not.
These are substantial minorities and confirm that the Prime Minister remains a brooding presence in this contest.
Badenoch was also top, Truss also second and Tugendhat also fifth in the main survey from which these results are drawn. Sunak was fourth in the main survey and third in these run-offs. He thus swaps places with Mordaunt.
The Foreign Secretary is the winner among Party members of the top three candidates in the Parliamentary ballot if this survey is right. But Sunak has closed the gap on her.
It’s perhaps an unlikely final for Party members but a fascinating snapshot of where the panel finds itself today.
The Foreign Secretary is beaten only by Kemi Badenich and Penny Mordaunt, although Suella Braverman runs her very close.
This result suggests that the Attorney General and former Spartan could flourish in the event of making the final round.
He wins six of our ten possible second-round match-ups, suggesting his candidacy has potential if he can pass the MP stage.
This is a solid middle table score from the former Chancellor. But he will need to do much better in a real final ballot.
On the basis of this finding, he will need to make more of a campaigning impact soon to cut through to Party members.
The Home Office is a legendary graveyard of political ambition, and Patel is less well placed to escape burial than was Theresa May, who won the 2016 contest.
He doesn’t beat any likely candidate of the right in the run-offs – bad news for someone running from the centre.
Shapps has got his campaign off the ground a bit late, and has made little impact on our panel as yet.