Perhaps the best way of reading this finding is the most simple – as a cry of pain from Tory activists as prices rise, the economy slows, and the tax burden moves towards its highest level since World War Two.
32 per cent, roughly one in three panel members, supported such an exchange and 60 per cent, some three in five of the whole, opposed it.
In our last survey of the summer’s leadership election, 60 per cent said they would vote for Truss, and only 28 per cent Sunak. So a lot of those saying she was right to resign voted for her only two months before.
The Prime Minister will be pleased to see has the tentative approval of party members.
And that energy bill support scheme, so disliked by some prominent Truss backers? Ninety per cent of the panel back it.
Wallace is top again – with Cleverly, Badenoch, Braverman, Rees-Mogg and Mordaunt above 50 points. There’s a tentative air about this table, as the panel feels its way with the new regime.
This month’s ratings bear the mark of a leadership election that many Tory activists clearly found unsatisfactory.
These results are in effect identical to a YouGov poll published earlier today. If both we and they are right, Sunak needs a massive game-changer to turn this contest round – and he’s running out of time.
The Prime Minister’s score is still dire: he is back in positive ratings, but not by very much. Though a substantial minority of the panel want him on the leadership election ballot and/or would vote for him had they the option, a larger majority of it does not.
These are substantial minorities and confirm that the Prime Minister remains a brooding presence in this contest.
Badenoch was also top, Truss also second and Tugendhat also fifth in the main survey from which these results are drawn. Sunak was fourth in the main survey and third in these run-offs. He thus swaps places with Mordaunt.
The Foreign Secretary is the winner among Party members of the top three candidates in the Parliamentary ballot if this survey is right. But Sunak has closed the gap on her.
It’s perhaps an unlikely final for Party members but a fascinating snapshot of where the panel finds itself today.
The Foreign Secretary is beaten only by Kemi Badenich and Penny Mordaunt, although Suella Braverman runs her very close.
This result suggests that the Attorney General and former Spartan could flourish in the event of making the final round.