Dr Patrick English is the Associate Director of Political and Social Research at YouGov.
Census data may reveal once again that the UK has an ageing population, but in some ‘true blue’ Conservative seats, voters are only getting younger.
Over recent weeks, Rishi Sunak’s government has been locked in a fierce battle with would-be rebels on proposed changes to planning laws, which would make it easier for new homes to be built to alleviate Britain’s housing crisis.
Early last week, it was announced that the rebels had won a key concession from Michael Gove, the Levelling Up Secretary, giving more power on planning decisions to local communities and allowing them to reject proposed new housing developments on a number of grounds.
The move, welcomed by key rebels such as Theresa Villiers and Bob Seely, is seen by its supporters as an important mechanism by which neighbourhoods can protect their communities and identities from mass, rapid change, while critics argue it will stall desperately needed expansion of Britain’s housing stock.
With the housing crisis impacting younger voters in particular, there is also some concern about the political cost of Conservative MPs blocking planning reform and pushing younger people farther and farther out of central urban areas in search of affordable housing and accommodation.
My analysis of previously released Census data in the autumn suggested that Britain’s growing population was expanding particularly fast in many so-called ‘Blue Wall’ areas across the South and East, with more and more people moving into ‘true blue’, semi-urban, commuter-belt towns and villages surrounding London and other major cities.
Now, fresh data releases from the Office for National Statistics also suggest that not only are populations growing across many parts of the Blue Wall, but they are also getting younger.
In the context of an increasingly older national population, with the percentage of people aged 18-34 declining by around one per cent nationally, these patterns are quite striking.
Figure 1 below shows this national picture very clearly, with areas in yellow and light orange showing the biggest increases in the presence of younger people, while those in deep purple and black are areas where the young population has shrunk most. Areas in red and deeper orange have largely stayed the same or fallen back just a little between 2011 and 2021.
The common thread across the data is quite clear: declining shares of young people in the most urban areas, and increasing presence of young people in the semi-urban and more rural areas which surround them.
This can be seen most intensely around London, with the capital itself seeing some of the sharpest declines in younger people nationwide. In fact, of the 30 highest declining local authorities, no fewer than 19 of them are within London.
Just outside the capital, the vast majority of local authorities have either seen their young populations hold steady or even grow – firmly against the national ageing tide.
This matters greatly in a political geography context for two reasons.
Firstly, younger people tend to be more liberal, worst affected by the housing crisis, and more likely to vote Labour. Secondly, seats immediately outside of urban areas are much more likely to currently be relatively wealthy, suburban, leafy-green, well-educated seats held by Conservative MPs.
If indeed changes to planning laws and housing targets are watered down by rebels in such a way that it continues to force young people out of urban areas and into more Conservative back yards, then one consequence of their short-term political success could be a longer-term unravelling of Conservative majorities in commuter belts across the country as more and more Labour and (tactical) Liberal Democrat voters are pushed in their direction.
Or, put another way, it could contribute to a reversal of the intense concentration of Labour votes within cities and student towns across recent electoral cycles, instead dispersing Labour support much more efficiently into degree-heavy, Remain-voting suburbia. In many constituency contexts, these votes could quite readily vote for best-placed Liberal Democrat challengers.
Figure 2 shows how this process of demographic change is occurring in and around the Blue Wall – the Remain voting, graduate-heavy, Conservative-held seats almost across the South and East of England, with Labour or the Liberal Democrats pushing hard in second place.
Classic Blue Wall areas like Guildford, Horsham, Runnymede, Winchester, South Oxfordshire, Vale of White Horse, and Arun have all seen growth in their younger populations since 2011 against the national ageing tide.
In fact, of the 30 highest growing areas in terms of young populations, 18 of them are in the South and East of England. Conservative heartlands outside of the Blue Wall definition such as Bath and North East Somerset (home to one Jacob Rees-Mogg), South Norfolk, and East Suffolk also sit on this list.
The numbers may not seem huge in terms of proportions (the highest increases being just shy of two per cemt), but this still means thousands of extra voters, heavily predisposed against the Conservatives, moving into Tory backyards.
Take Winchester, for example. The latest Census population figure for the local authority is 127,500, having been reported at 116,595 in 2011. The percentage of 18- to 34-year-olds has increased there from 19.6 per cent in 2011 to 20.2 per cent in 2021.
That’s almost 3000 extra young voters now in and around Steve Brine’s constituency, with the Liberal Democrats just 985 votes behind in second place. Just seven years ago, that gap was 16,914 votes.
All across the country, demographic change and replacement is starting to spell danger for the composition of Conservative suburban votes and seats. The movement of young people away from urban areas and out toward ‘true blue’ heartlands is creating further problems in what is already a very tricky political environment for the party.
Dr Patrick English is the Associate Director of Political and Social Research at YouGov.
Census data may reveal once again that the UK has an ageing population, but in some ‘true blue’ Conservative seats, voters are only getting younger.
Over recent weeks, Rishi Sunak’s government has been locked in a fierce battle with would-be rebels on proposed changes to planning laws, which would make it easier for new homes to be built to alleviate Britain’s housing crisis.
Early last week, it was announced that the rebels had won a key concession from Michael Gove, the Levelling Up Secretary, giving more power on planning decisions to local communities and allowing them to reject proposed new housing developments on a number of grounds.
The move, welcomed by key rebels such as Theresa Villiers and Bob Seely, is seen by its supporters as an important mechanism by which neighbourhoods can protect their communities and identities from mass, rapid change, while critics argue it will stall desperately needed expansion of Britain’s housing stock.
With the housing crisis impacting younger voters in particular, there is also some concern about the political cost of Conservative MPs blocking planning reform and pushing younger people farther and farther out of central urban areas in search of affordable housing and accommodation.
My analysis of previously released Census data in the autumn suggested that Britain’s growing population was expanding particularly fast in many so-called ‘Blue Wall’ areas across the South and East, with more and more people moving into ‘true blue’, semi-urban, commuter-belt towns and villages surrounding London and other major cities.
Now, fresh data releases from the Office for National Statistics also suggest that not only are populations growing across many parts of the Blue Wall, but they are also getting younger.
In the context of an increasingly older national population, with the percentage of people aged 18-34 declining by around one per cent nationally, these patterns are quite striking.
Figure 1 below shows this national picture very clearly, with areas in yellow and light orange showing the biggest increases in the presence of younger people, while those in deep purple and black are areas where the young population has shrunk most. Areas in red and deeper orange have largely stayed the same or fallen back just a little between 2011 and 2021.
The common thread across the data is quite clear: declining shares of young people in the most urban areas, and increasing presence of young people in the semi-urban and more rural areas which surround them.
This can be seen most intensely around London, with the capital itself seeing some of the sharpest declines in younger people nationwide. In fact, of the 30 highest declining local authorities, no fewer than 19 of them are within London.
Just outside the capital, the vast majority of local authorities have either seen their young populations hold steady or even grow – firmly against the national ageing tide.
This matters greatly in a political geography context for two reasons.
Firstly, younger people tend to be more liberal, worst affected by the housing crisis, and more likely to vote Labour. Secondly, seats immediately outside of urban areas are much more likely to currently be relatively wealthy, suburban, leafy-green, well-educated seats held by Conservative MPs.
If indeed changes to planning laws and housing targets are watered down by rebels in such a way that it continues to force young people out of urban areas and into more Conservative back yards, then one consequence of their short-term political success could be a longer-term unravelling of Conservative majorities in commuter belts across the country as more and more Labour and (tactical) Liberal Democrat voters are pushed in their direction.
Or, put another way, it could contribute to a reversal of the intense concentration of Labour votes within cities and student towns across recent electoral cycles, instead dispersing Labour support much more efficiently into degree-heavy, Remain-voting suburbia. In many constituency contexts, these votes could quite readily vote for best-placed Liberal Democrat challengers.
Figure 2 shows how this process of demographic change is occurring in and around the Blue Wall – the Remain voting, graduate-heavy, Conservative-held seats almost across the South and East of England, with Labour or the Liberal Democrats pushing hard in second place.
Classic Blue Wall areas like Guildford, Horsham, Runnymede, Winchester, South Oxfordshire, Vale of White Horse, and Arun have all seen growth in their younger populations since 2011 against the national ageing tide.
In fact, of the 30 highest growing areas in terms of young populations, 18 of them are in the South and East of England. Conservative heartlands outside of the Blue Wall definition such as Bath and North East Somerset (home to one Jacob Rees-Mogg), South Norfolk, and East Suffolk also sit on this list.
The numbers may not seem huge in terms of proportions (the highest increases being just shy of two per cemt), but this still means thousands of extra voters, heavily predisposed against the Conservatives, moving into Tory backyards.
Take Winchester, for example. The latest Census population figure for the local authority is 127,500, having been reported at 116,595 in 2011. The percentage of 18- to 34-year-olds has increased there from 19.6 per cent in 2011 to 20.2 per cent in 2021.
That’s almost 3000 extra young voters now in and around Steve Brine’s constituency, with the Liberal Democrats just 985 votes behind in second place. Just seven years ago, that gap was 16,914 votes.
All across the country, demographic change and replacement is starting to spell danger for the composition of Conservative suburban votes and seats. The movement of young people away from urban areas and out toward ‘true blue’ heartlands is creating further problems in what is already a very tricky political environment for the party.