Alex Challoner is Director of London Vision Network and James Ford was an adviser to Boris Johnson as Mayor of London
Do you remember when Nigel Farage boasted that Reform UK were poised to take control of as many as six London boroughs? You should – it was only a couple of months ago and Nigel was pretty loud about his prediction. (He told the Daily Mail and it was also reported in the Evening Standard). Well, just like Nigel’s prediction that he would kill off the Conservative Party, the prediction did not survive first contact with the electorate. The local elections nationally were certainly a triumph for Reform UK, and there was a real surge across the United Kingdom. Well, everywhere except London that is.
In the capital the tsunami of Reform gains was more of a disappointing dribble. Instead of taking six boroughs, Reform UK took just one: Havering. That leaves Reform tied with Lutfur Rahman’s Aspire party in terms of boroughs controlled. (And, in fairness to Aspire, they only stood in one borough!) Other, much-hyped Reform breakthroughs – in Bromley, Bexley, and Barking & Dagenham – did not materialise. Despite launching their campaign in Croydon, Reform were unable to unseat that borough’s Conservative mayor. In fact, Reform won just 5 per cent of the London council seats in which it fielded candidates (compared to 43 per cent in the rest of the country). In Central London Reform took just a single seat. Laila Cunningham’s decision not to defend her Lancaster Gate seat on Westminster City Council makes a lot of sense in hindsight. (Having your mayoral hopeful unable to keep a council seat is never a good look).
By contrast – as Andrew Gilligan has insightfully pointed out for this site already – “it was mostly London which gave the [Conservative] party something good to talk about.” Conservatives in the capital could be forgiven for indulging in a little schadenfreude over Reform’s metropolitan hubris. Whilst not as high as party activists or strategists might want, the Conservative vote share in London held up and, more importantly, was significantly higher than Reform’s.
The key takeaway from these elections – for the readership of ConHome and for Londoners in general – must surely be that, whilst Reform’s Laila Cunningham now seems certain to fail in her ambition to become Mayor of London, a Conservative candidate could still succeed. The Conservatives’ path to winning City Hall in 2028 remains narrow (and rocky…and uphill) but the Conservatives remain the only serious contender from the political right. Unfortunately, a second political lesson must surely be that Labour remains in pole position, and the Greens must be considered serious contenders too.
That London’s politics (like the UK more widely) has fractured and fragmented beyond a two party system certainly makes the capital’s elections less predictable. However, a London of five or more parties (there are lots of independents that we must not overlook – from Aspire in Tower Hamlets to all the pro-Gaza candidates) is not necessarily unhelpful to the Conservative cause.
London’s rather peculiar electoral system involving second preference voting – which Labour have rather foolishly reverted to using in a desperate attempt to shore up their own prospects in 2028 – could be Sadiq Khan’s undoing. There may be a growing number of runners, but only the biggest two get their vote totals topped up with the second preferences of all the other also-rans. Ironically, had London stuck with using First Past The Post (FPTP) for deciding who runs City Hall, then simply being the biggest party in terms of vote share (as Labour currently are) would have been enough to guarantee Sadiq Khan a fourth term in 2028.
This year’s elections have proved that voters in London and elsewhere are quickly becoming masters in tactical voting, as much to keep out parties they don’t like as to elect those that they do like. That has proved bad news for Reform UK in London. It may well be bad news for the Greens too. The challenge for Conservatives ahead of 2028 has to be explaining to Londoners that are not natural Conservatives that a Tory vote is the best way to keep Labour out of City Hall. And, any voter who isn’t willing to give the Conservative candidate their first preference, would be well advised to at least give the Conservatives their second preference vote. This must be at the heart of a successful Conservative election strategy for 2028.
What does this mean in practice? Greens and Lib Dem voters need to be challenged as to whether they are serious about getting rid of a Labour mayor that has failed to build houses so spectacularly that he now wants to concrete over the green belt. Reform voters that claim to be concerned about Khan failure to address rising crime levels in London must be persuaded that the only alternative is a Conservative mayor.
Next month London Vision Network is commissioning research which will consider all of these issues. By defining our winning coalition; developing key policies to support that coalition and identifying characteristics and values people are looking for in their mayor; London Conservatives can increase their chances of electoral success in 2028.
There is no more time to waste. Let’s get a decent candidate selected ASAP so that we can start persuading Londoners of every political hue that the only way to change London for the better is to elect a better mayor. Even if that means pinching their nose and voting for a Tory.
Alex Challoner is Director of London Vision Network and James Ford was an adviser to Boris Johnson as Mayor of London
Do you remember when Nigel Farage boasted that Reform UK were poised to take control of as many as six London boroughs? You should – it was only a couple of months ago and Nigel was pretty loud about his prediction. (He told the Daily Mail and it was also reported in the Evening Standard). Well, just like Nigel’s prediction that he would kill off the Conservative Party, the prediction did not survive first contact with the electorate. The local elections nationally were certainly a triumph for Reform UK, and there was a real surge across the United Kingdom. Well, everywhere except London that is.
In the capital the tsunami of Reform gains was more of a disappointing dribble. Instead of taking six boroughs, Reform UK took just one: Havering. That leaves Reform tied with Lutfur Rahman’s Aspire party in terms of boroughs controlled. (And, in fairness to Aspire, they only stood in one borough!) Other, much-hyped Reform breakthroughs – in Bromley, Bexley, and Barking & Dagenham – did not materialise. Despite launching their campaign in Croydon, Reform were unable to unseat that borough’s Conservative mayor. In fact, Reform won just 5 per cent of the London council seats in which it fielded candidates (compared to 43 per cent in the rest of the country). In Central London Reform took just a single seat. Laila Cunningham’s decision not to defend her Lancaster Gate seat on Westminster City Council makes a lot of sense in hindsight. (Having your mayoral hopeful unable to keep a council seat is never a good look).
By contrast – as Andrew Gilligan has insightfully pointed out for this site already – “it was mostly London which gave the [Conservative] party something good to talk about.” Conservatives in the capital could be forgiven for indulging in a little schadenfreude over Reform’s metropolitan hubris. Whilst not as high as party activists or strategists might want, the Conservative vote share in London held up and, more importantly, was significantly higher than Reform’s.
The key takeaway from these elections – for the readership of ConHome and for Londoners in general – must surely be that, whilst Reform’s Laila Cunningham now seems certain to fail in her ambition to become Mayor of London, a Conservative candidate could still succeed. The Conservatives’ path to winning City Hall in 2028 remains narrow (and rocky…and uphill) but the Conservatives remain the only serious contender from the political right. Unfortunately, a second political lesson must surely be that Labour remains in pole position, and the Greens must be considered serious contenders too.
That London’s politics (like the UK more widely) has fractured and fragmented beyond a two party system certainly makes the capital’s elections less predictable. However, a London of five or more parties (there are lots of independents that we must not overlook – from Aspire in Tower Hamlets to all the pro-Gaza candidates) is not necessarily unhelpful to the Conservative cause.
London’s rather peculiar electoral system involving second preference voting – which Labour have rather foolishly reverted to using in a desperate attempt to shore up their own prospects in 2028 – could be Sadiq Khan’s undoing. There may be a growing number of runners, but only the biggest two get their vote totals topped up with the second preferences of all the other also-rans. Ironically, had London stuck with using First Past The Post (FPTP) for deciding who runs City Hall, then simply being the biggest party in terms of vote share (as Labour currently are) would have been enough to guarantee Sadiq Khan a fourth term in 2028.
This year’s elections have proved that voters in London and elsewhere are quickly becoming masters in tactical voting, as much to keep out parties they don’t like as to elect those that they do like. That has proved bad news for Reform UK in London. It may well be bad news for the Greens too. The challenge for Conservatives ahead of 2028 has to be explaining to Londoners that are not natural Conservatives that a Tory vote is the best way to keep Labour out of City Hall. And, any voter who isn’t willing to give the Conservative candidate their first preference, would be well advised to at least give the Conservatives their second preference vote. This must be at the heart of a successful Conservative election strategy for 2028.
What does this mean in practice? Greens and Lib Dem voters need to be challenged as to whether they are serious about getting rid of a Labour mayor that has failed to build houses so spectacularly that he now wants to concrete over the green belt. Reform voters that claim to be concerned about Khan failure to address rising crime levels in London must be persuaded that the only alternative is a Conservative mayor.
Next month London Vision Network is commissioning research which will consider all of these issues. By defining our winning coalition; developing key policies to support that coalition and identifying characteristics and values people are looking for in their mayor; London Conservatives can increase their chances of electoral success in 2028.
There is no more time to waste. Let’s get a decent candidate selected ASAP so that we can start persuading Londoners of every political hue that the only way to change London for the better is to elect a better mayor. Even if that means pinching their nose and voting for a Tory.