Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
They say that when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Never has that idiom been more accurate than when applied to Ukraine and its brave, resilient people.
I have just returned from Odesa, the coastal city in southern Ukraine, which this weekend hosted the third annual Black Sea Security Forum. It was my fifteenth visit to Ukraine since the start of the all-out war with Russia more than four years ago.
My four-day stay in Odesa, often known as the “pearl of the Black Sea”, was an uplifting experience because, although exhausted by relentless missile and drone attacks, the determination Ukrainians to resist their aggressor remains undiminished. Indeed, it is Ukraine, not Russia, that is now consistently making small territorial gains on the frontline.
Yet perhaps the most striking takeaway from the forum was the recognition from Western policy makers and military experts, including from the US, that Ukraine has now become the laboratory for the future of warfare.
In various debates over what defines a great power, one conclusion seemed unanimous: Ukraine is now a “drone superpower” because it leads the world in such technology. Quite apart from the success of its aerial drones, which can now reach Moscow, Ukraine created the first unmanned sea drones which have effectively neutralised Russia’s famous Black Sea fleet.
The expansion of medium-range strike capabilities – reaching well beyond 90 miles – has also enabled Ukraine to target supply chains in the occupied territories and Crimea with increasing effectiveness.
When a nation is forced to defend itself against a powerful and ugly neighbour, it’s good to know that there are friends from all over the world on your side. More than 1,200 delegates descended on the forum to show their support for Ukraine and to discuss ways of improving the security of the region in the short and long terms.
Senior US representatives attending in person included Senator Mark Kelly, Senator Richard Blumenthal, and Congressman Jim Himes, all Democrats, as well as my dear friend Kelly Craft, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations in the first Trump presidency.
Indeed, it was Senator Blumenthal who stressed that while Ukraine is mobilised, the West is not.
He also pushed back against growing concerns over Donald Trump’s commitment to Nato, noting a US president cannot simply withdraw from the alliance by executive decision alone. He argued that the US fundamentally needs allies, a sentiment echoed by Senator Kelly.
One long-term American ally of Ukraine, retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, was interviewed over a video link by Oleksii Honcharenko, the chairman of the forum and a Ukrainian MP, with the live image of President Trump’s former Special Envoy for Ukraine appearing on a giant screen at the Odesa Opera House.
General Kellogg’s clear message to the forum was that Russia, despite all is brutality and bluster, is not winning this war, the largest in Europe since the Second World War. He also said that he does not believe that Russia, under Vladimir Putin, would ever use its nuclear weapons in this war. However, his endorsement of the country that he visited four times last year in his Special Envoy role was powerful: “The whole world needs Ukraine.”
A new US convert to Ukraine’s cause was also in Odesa in the shape of Pastor Mark Burns, a spiritual advisor to President Trump. For three years, he opposed the US’s support for Ukraine, until visiting the war-torn country for the first time last year.
This weekend he personally addressed the “brave and beloved people of Ukraine”, stating:
“Russia is sending a message to the world: it is declaring real loud that we will cross any line, we will break any norm, we will threaten any nation, we will terrorise any people, we will escalate to any level.
Ukraine is also sending another message – we will not bow down, we will not break, we will not surrender our children, our homes, our land our freedom and our future.”
The Pastor added that he had told President Trump, US Congress and the US Senate that “supporting Ukraine is America First”.
The UK’s representation at the forum included Lord Richards, the retired Field Marshal David Richards, as well as current and former MPs. On trips like this, party rivalries are put aside because everyone is a champion of a common cause: Ukraine, its survival and its future.
In his opening remarks to the summit, Lord Richards, the former professional head of Britain’s Armed Forces, began by saying “how much as a professional solider I admire and respect the Ukrainian Armed Forces. What they have achieved is quite remarkable.” He added that the Ukrainian military was “fighting in the belief that there is a better Ukraine, a better world, that is going to come out of their great sacrifice.”
I, too, was one of the guest speakers at the forum presenting my polling results from Ukraine, Britain, the US, Germany, France, Poland and even Russia.
At one point, two military heroes from very different backgrounds shared the stage to discuss the changing nature of the frontline: they were Colonel Sviatoslav Palamar, the Ukrainian-born deputy commander of First Corps Azov, and Denis Kapustin, the Moscow-born founder and commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps. Both men have repeatedly risked their lives for Ukraine’s freedom. Indeed, this forum, from start to finish, was not short of Ukraine’s highly-decorated heroes.
Petro Poroshenko, the former President of Ukraine from 2014-19, told the forum that there was now “a narrow window of opportunity” to force Putin into a peace deal. He added that Ukraine’s long-term stability centred on being able to join the European Union and Nato. However, the reality is that both ambitions are only likely to be fulfilled after this brutal war ends.
In a summit full of positivity, a surprise guest was HRH Reza Pahlavi, the exiled former Crown Prince of the Pahlavi dynasty of Iran. He described Odesa as “a city that has looked into the face of foreign aggression and refused to blink, a city that knows what it means to defend not just territory but liberty. I stand before you with the deepest admiration for the Ukrainian people and with a kinship that is not just diplomatic, it is forged in a shared understanding of what it costs to resist those who believe might supersedes the will of a free people.”
With the all-out war now deep into its fifth year, it would be naïve to dismiss Russia as a spent force. Its army remains superior to Ukraine’s in numerical manpower and long-range weaponry, and it is not far behind its neighbour in developing the best drones. It also still retains some 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory.
It would be equally foolish to simply put Ukraine’s victories on the battlefield down to advances in technology alone. Ukraine’s success has been driven by something more fundamental: its people. New technologies matter but it is talent, adaptability, determination and raw courage that have given Ukraine its edge.
As I left Odesa, I concluded that the Black Sea Security Forum had highlighted a profound shift in strategic thinking. Ukraine is no longer viewed merely as a recipient of Western assistance. It is seen as a key contributor to Western security, a source of innovation and a model for military adaptation.
The challenge for the West is no longer whether to help Ukraine; it is whether the West can learn from Ukraine quickly enough.
Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
They say that when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Never has that idiom been more accurate than when applied to Ukraine and its brave, resilient people.
I have just returned from Odesa, the coastal city in southern Ukraine, which this weekend hosted the third annual Black Sea Security Forum. It was my fifteenth visit to Ukraine since the start of the all-out war with Russia more than four years ago.
My four-day stay in Odesa, often known as the “pearl of the Black Sea”, was an uplifting experience because, although exhausted by relentless missile and drone attacks, the determination Ukrainians to resist their aggressor remains undiminished. Indeed, it is Ukraine, not Russia, that is now consistently making small territorial gains on the frontline.
Yet perhaps the most striking takeaway from the forum was the recognition from Western policy makers and military experts, including from the US, that Ukraine has now become the laboratory for the future of warfare.
In various debates over what defines a great power, one conclusion seemed unanimous: Ukraine is now a “drone superpower” because it leads the world in such technology. Quite apart from the success of its aerial drones, which can now reach Moscow, Ukraine created the first unmanned sea drones which have effectively neutralised Russia’s famous Black Sea fleet.
The expansion of medium-range strike capabilities – reaching well beyond 90 miles – has also enabled Ukraine to target supply chains in the occupied territories and Crimea with increasing effectiveness.
When a nation is forced to defend itself against a powerful and ugly neighbour, it’s good to know that there are friends from all over the world on your side. More than 1,200 delegates descended on the forum to show their support for Ukraine and to discuss ways of improving the security of the region in the short and long terms.
Senior US representatives attending in person included Senator Mark Kelly, Senator Richard Blumenthal, and Congressman Jim Himes, all Democrats, as well as my dear friend Kelly Craft, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations in the first Trump presidency.
Indeed, it was Senator Blumenthal who stressed that while Ukraine is mobilised, the West is not.
He also pushed back against growing concerns over Donald Trump’s commitment to Nato, noting a US president cannot simply withdraw from the alliance by executive decision alone. He argued that the US fundamentally needs allies, a sentiment echoed by Senator Kelly.
One long-term American ally of Ukraine, retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, was interviewed over a video link by Oleksii Honcharenko, the chairman of the forum and a Ukrainian MP, with the live image of President Trump’s former Special Envoy for Ukraine appearing on a giant screen at the Odesa Opera House.
General Kellogg’s clear message to the forum was that Russia, despite all is brutality and bluster, is not winning this war, the largest in Europe since the Second World War. He also said that he does not believe that Russia, under Vladimir Putin, would ever use its nuclear weapons in this war. However, his endorsement of the country that he visited four times last year in his Special Envoy role was powerful: “The whole world needs Ukraine.”
A new US convert to Ukraine’s cause was also in Odesa in the shape of Pastor Mark Burns, a spiritual advisor to President Trump. For three years, he opposed the US’s support for Ukraine, until visiting the war-torn country for the first time last year.
This weekend he personally addressed the “brave and beloved people of Ukraine”, stating:
“Russia is sending a message to the world: it is declaring real loud that we will cross any line, we will break any norm, we will threaten any nation, we will terrorise any people, we will escalate to any level.
Ukraine is also sending another message – we will not bow down, we will not break, we will not surrender our children, our homes, our land our freedom and our future.”
The Pastor added that he had told President Trump, US Congress and the US Senate that “supporting Ukraine is America First”.
The UK’s representation at the forum included Lord Richards, the retired Field Marshal David Richards, as well as current and former MPs. On trips like this, party rivalries are put aside because everyone is a champion of a common cause: Ukraine, its survival and its future.
In his opening remarks to the summit, Lord Richards, the former professional head of Britain’s Armed Forces, began by saying “how much as a professional solider I admire and respect the Ukrainian Armed Forces. What they have achieved is quite remarkable.” He added that the Ukrainian military was “fighting in the belief that there is a better Ukraine, a better world, that is going to come out of their great sacrifice.”
I, too, was one of the guest speakers at the forum presenting my polling results from Ukraine, Britain, the US, Germany, France, Poland and even Russia.
At one point, two military heroes from very different backgrounds shared the stage to discuss the changing nature of the frontline: they were Colonel Sviatoslav Palamar, the Ukrainian-born deputy commander of First Corps Azov, and Denis Kapustin, the Moscow-born founder and commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps. Both men have repeatedly risked their lives for Ukraine’s freedom. Indeed, this forum, from start to finish, was not short of Ukraine’s highly-decorated heroes.
Petro Poroshenko, the former President of Ukraine from 2014-19, told the forum that there was now “a narrow window of opportunity” to force Putin into a peace deal. He added that Ukraine’s long-term stability centred on being able to join the European Union and Nato. However, the reality is that both ambitions are only likely to be fulfilled after this brutal war ends.
In a summit full of positivity, a surprise guest was HRH Reza Pahlavi, the exiled former Crown Prince of the Pahlavi dynasty of Iran. He described Odesa as “a city that has looked into the face of foreign aggression and refused to blink, a city that knows what it means to defend not just territory but liberty. I stand before you with the deepest admiration for the Ukrainian people and with a kinship that is not just diplomatic, it is forged in a shared understanding of what it costs to resist those who believe might supersedes the will of a free people.”
With the all-out war now deep into its fifth year, it would be naïve to dismiss Russia as a spent force. Its army remains superior to Ukraine’s in numerical manpower and long-range weaponry, and it is not far behind its neighbour in developing the best drones. It also still retains some 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory.
It would be equally foolish to simply put Ukraine’s victories on the battlefield down to advances in technology alone. Ukraine’s success has been driven by something more fundamental: its people. New technologies matter but it is talent, adaptability, determination and raw courage that have given Ukraine its edge.
As I left Odesa, I concluded that the Black Sea Security Forum had highlighted a profound shift in strategic thinking. Ukraine is no longer viewed merely as a recipient of Western assistance. It is seen as a key contributor to Western security, a source of innovation and a model for military adaptation.
The challenge for the West is no longer whether to help Ukraine; it is whether the West can learn from Ukraine quickly enough.