Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
This week we conducted focus groups in the Makerfield constituency among previous Labour voters weighing up the decision: whether to send Andy Burnham to parliament or switch to Reform UK.
There were mixed views as to the circumstances of the by-election. Some applauded Josh Simons’s decision to step aside for Andy Burnham (“hats off to him”), though they thought a reward would be forthcoming: “He was a nice fella and he worked for the community. I feel that he’s become the fall guy. Obviously, there’s been a deal done behind the scenes – whatever he’s going to get money-wise, or another job somewhere.” Some saw it as a rare sign of solidarity or emerging party unity: “Is that sticking together, because they haven’t been sticking together. It’s been one side or the other. But this is like, we really want him. If they’re all willing to do this for him, they must see something.”
Some, however, resented the idea of their constituency being passed around and their own votes effectively taken for granted: “It’s a bit weird that he’s stepping aside because it’s like they’re just expecting him to win. Like, ‘here’s your seat. You can go on and become leader’;” “It’s all internal politics, isn’t it. It’s not about the community, it’s more about them and what they want. It’s not particularly ‘let’s do the best for Makerfield”. This was no real surprise, however: “Politics has always been jobs for the boys. It’s the way it is”.
Andy Burnham was largely well-liked and respected: “He’s got backbone. He’s not worried about speaking up;” “He’s more likeable. He’s a people person;” “He’s demonstrated leadership skills, and I think that’s what we’re badly lacking”. His familiarity was also appealing: “He’s just sort of like the man in the pub, literally. I’ve seen him in the Queen Anne loads of times;” “During covid we used to go to the local and quite a few nights he was in there as well, and people used to start chanting ‘King of the North’ when he came in the door. He sort of has that charisma;” “I find it quite weird because he was my local MP like forever. He literally came to our school and we had PHSE lessons with him. So he’s always been around, and now he’s a potential prime minister;” “All these candidates come in and you think, who’s that? We put our faith in absolute random people I’ve never heard of. Whereas I feel like he’s not random. He’s been around;” “I’m not saying he’s perfect but his heart’s in Manchester”.
Most were positive about Burnham’s record as Mayor, especially on tackling homelessness, free gym membership for young people, the transport network and city centre regeneration (though there was concern about the suitability of some developments). He was also praised for his response to the Manchester Arena bombing.
However, Burnham also had his doubters. Criticisms of his mayoral record included the cancelled Clean Air Zone (“It cost a fortune. It was just another tax”), crime and policing: “The centre of Manchester is a no-go area after eight o’clock at night. You’re advised that as well. I’m being told not to go around Manchester and that’s down to him;” “The Jewish community in Manchester are living in fear, and they shouldn’t have to live in fear. Yet at the present time, the Greater Manchester Police are allowing these protests to go on and they’re not protecting the people they should”. The groups were conducted before the controversy over the murder of Henry Nowak had fully unfolded, but some wondered what Burnham would say about it: “After George Floyd, Andy Burnham was one of the first in Manchester to tell everyone to take the knee. But he still hasn’t made a statement on this Henry Nowak. None whatsoever. If he was to come out and say, right, this is an absolute disgrace, but he’s not. And that’s not leadership”.
Some also mentioned his previous stance on gender issues: “I didn’t like the fact he said men and women could use the same changing rooms and toilets. And that men the same as women could go into sports the same as women. I don’t want to get changed in there with a fella, you know what I mean? I think to some degree when they come out with these opinions they’re trying to stay on the right side of history rather than it being necessarily their own personal opinion”.
Most were unimpressed with Labour’s record in government since they voted for the party in 2024. Participants mentioned higher taxes, employment regulations, illegal migration, net zero policies, rising prices and crime: “They received a mess, but they haven’t made it better;” “Apart from NHS lists coming down, I think everything else has been an absolute disgrace.” They were also very critical of Keir Starmer as prime minister: “No leadership skills, no communication skills. The fundamental things a prime minister should have, he hasn’t got any of them;” “His disdain for the British people is frightening”. At the same time, a few wondered whether another change at the top was the answer: “Part of the problem is that we’ve had leader after leader come in and they have a year or two years. We need to give them longer;” “It’s a ridiculous turnover rate with prime ministers and we need to put a stop to it.”
Some saw the prospect – or at least the chance – of improvements if Burnham were to become prime minister (and none doubted that this was both his intention and the likely outcome if he won the by-election). However, this was very rarely to do with policies or ideas – none had heard of “Manchesterism” or anything specific he proposed to do in Downing Street – but rather because of his character and personality: “I don’t think he’d take any messing. I think he’d stand his ground;” “I’m not interested in new policies and ideas. I want someone to stay the course and actually effect some change rather than being pushed out within a term.” Even so, there were some worries that Burnham and his supporters might take Labour further to the left: “He might be a great person to be the next prime minister but there’s so many people around him saying into his ear, ‘this is what we want’. I don’t really want Labour to go another step to the left. I just worry who he’s going to have around him if he becomes prime minister”.
Participants debated whether having Burnham as prime minister would be good for the local area: “I think it could be a massive benefit for the north in general. I think that could be a big positive for us. He’s tried to get closer links to other councils, like Liverpool, trying to have some common ground. If he can do those sort of things on a national basis, that could have some good benefits;” “If he was to get in here, it would be for the bigger picture. It’s not really about looking after the area, it will be for his next thing. It’s a stepping stone for him;” “Are the people in our area going to see him as a local MP, or is he just going to be the prime minister that turns up for his constituency meetings and gets other people to do his work for the area?”
Whether or not they thought Burnham could win the next election for Labour, they believed he had more chance of doing so than Starmer or any of the other potential candidates. Some doubted they would vote Labour again if Burnham were not the leader: “I just want to see steady, stable leadership that is in power for a good few years. And I think Andy Burnham is probably the most likely to be able to bring people to his side and stay in power;” “If it wasn’t for Andy Burnham, I would seriously consider not voting Labour. But I actually believe he would be really, really good for this country”.
A few had heard about Reform UK candidate Rob Kenyon and his controversial social media posts: “Is he the Carol Vorderman one? He was very rude to her when she was on Countdown. Apparently she has written to every female in Makerfield reminding them of that.” However, it was notable that those most familiar with the details were also the least attracted to Reform in the first place. Those considering the party more seriously had not heard about the issue or considered it a fairly minor point: “It’s just part of being a politician. There isn’t one that you could say ‘you’re a good, decent, clean politician. I certainly couldn’t name one;” “Nobody is going to be squeaky clean unless they don’t do social media. Yes, he’s made some comments, but over the next two weeks I’d like to see more of him and decide myself rather than what everyone else is saying about him.”
As elsewhere, many were attracted to Reform UK by their stance on issues including immigration, tax, crime and net zero, as well as their general outspoken approach: “My community where I live has changed so much, it’s frightening. And I just feel that if I vote Labour, nothing will change. I just want to see something a little bit different;” “There are radical ideas, but they are actually talking to the people and telling you what their policies are. With Labour it’s ‘well we’ve got some policies, but we might water them down and we’re not really sure. We don’t know where it’s leading to;” “I just feel that with the way the country is right now, it needs a complete and utter overhaul. I feel they will get in at the next election whether Andy Burnham gets in or not.”
A handful of participants had heard of Restore Britain, but only one was interested so far: “They do sound good. They’re very down to earth. They don’t like masses of people coming in unvetted.” Others who had heard about them considered them on the extreme side: “I think he’s just a little bit radical in his ‘Britain first’ stuff. He thinks everybody gets what he’s saying, but I think he’s the wrong side of normal.” There was no interested in the Green Party, at least in this contest: “At this by-election, you’d just be throwing away your vote;” “Absolute fruit loops. Two of them knocked on my door with green hair, piercings, multi-coloured flags all over them, and I just looked at them and said ‘there’s more chance of Accrington Stanley winning the treble than me voting for you’.”
For those torn between Labour and Reform, the decision often came down to the most effective way of achieving change, and how soon it could take effect: “If we go for the Reform candidate, we’re just getting another Reform MP into parliament, which isn’t going to make any difference really. But if we vote for Andy Burnham, are we basically saying, do we want Andy Burnham as leader? It’s like two questions really;” “Do I want a full change, or am I believing in Labour to have a different leader and then become better? But if you go for Reform and Nigel, then it’s starting again. And we’ve got to go through another couple of years first;” “My way of thinking is that if Burnham loses, Labour wouldn’t last for four years, and there would be another national vote and things would change then. But if Burnham gets in, if he can start from day one;” “Getting Reform in would make zero difference. But Andy Burnham getting in means a big shake-up in the Labour party. And personally, I would much rather see that than just vote for Reform for the sake of not being happy with the Labour party. I would rather see them have the ability to make a positive change.”
This was also the case for those who had some sympathy for Starmer and had complained about prime ministerial turnover: “If they didn’t challenge his leadership, I would give him more time. But I’d rather Burnham;” “I would rather have someone stay for longer, but I don’t think Keir Starmer’s going to last anyway.”
Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
This week we conducted focus groups in the Makerfield constituency among previous Labour voters weighing up the decision: whether to send Andy Burnham to parliament or switch to Reform UK.
There were mixed views as to the circumstances of the by-election. Some applauded Josh Simons’s decision to step aside for Andy Burnham (“hats off to him”), though they thought a reward would be forthcoming: “He was a nice fella and he worked for the community. I feel that he’s become the fall guy. Obviously, there’s been a deal done behind the scenes – whatever he’s going to get money-wise, or another job somewhere.” Some saw it as a rare sign of solidarity or emerging party unity: “Is that sticking together, because they haven’t been sticking together. It’s been one side or the other. But this is like, we really want him. If they’re all willing to do this for him, they must see something.”
Some, however, resented the idea of their constituency being passed around and their own votes effectively taken for granted: “It’s a bit weird that he’s stepping aside because it’s like they’re just expecting him to win. Like, ‘here’s your seat. You can go on and become leader’;” “It’s all internal politics, isn’t it. It’s not about the community, it’s more about them and what they want. It’s not particularly ‘let’s do the best for Makerfield”. This was no real surprise, however: “Politics has always been jobs for the boys. It’s the way it is”.
Andy Burnham was largely well-liked and respected: “He’s got backbone. He’s not worried about speaking up;” “He’s more likeable. He’s a people person;” “He’s demonstrated leadership skills, and I think that’s what we’re badly lacking”. His familiarity was also appealing: “He’s just sort of like the man in the pub, literally. I’ve seen him in the Queen Anne loads of times;” “During covid we used to go to the local and quite a few nights he was in there as well, and people used to start chanting ‘King of the North’ when he came in the door. He sort of has that charisma;” “I find it quite weird because he was my local MP like forever. He literally came to our school and we had PHSE lessons with him. So he’s always been around, and now he’s a potential prime minister;” “All these candidates come in and you think, who’s that? We put our faith in absolute random people I’ve never heard of. Whereas I feel like he’s not random. He’s been around;” “I’m not saying he’s perfect but his heart’s in Manchester”.
Most were positive about Burnham’s record as Mayor, especially on tackling homelessness, free gym membership for young people, the transport network and city centre regeneration (though there was concern about the suitability of some developments). He was also praised for his response to the Manchester Arena bombing.
However, Burnham also had his doubters. Criticisms of his mayoral record included the cancelled Clean Air Zone (“It cost a fortune. It was just another tax”), crime and policing: “The centre of Manchester is a no-go area after eight o’clock at night. You’re advised that as well. I’m being told not to go around Manchester and that’s down to him;” “The Jewish community in Manchester are living in fear, and they shouldn’t have to live in fear. Yet at the present time, the Greater Manchester Police are allowing these protests to go on and they’re not protecting the people they should”. The groups were conducted before the controversy over the murder of Henry Nowak had fully unfolded, but some wondered what Burnham would say about it: “After George Floyd, Andy Burnham was one of the first in Manchester to tell everyone to take the knee. But he still hasn’t made a statement on this Henry Nowak. None whatsoever. If he was to come out and say, right, this is an absolute disgrace, but he’s not. And that’s not leadership”.
Some also mentioned his previous stance on gender issues: “I didn’t like the fact he said men and women could use the same changing rooms and toilets. And that men the same as women could go into sports the same as women. I don’t want to get changed in there with a fella, you know what I mean? I think to some degree when they come out with these opinions they’re trying to stay on the right side of history rather than it being necessarily their own personal opinion”.
Most were unimpressed with Labour’s record in government since they voted for the party in 2024. Participants mentioned higher taxes, employment regulations, illegal migration, net zero policies, rising prices and crime: “They received a mess, but they haven’t made it better;” “Apart from NHS lists coming down, I think everything else has been an absolute disgrace.” They were also very critical of Keir Starmer as prime minister: “No leadership skills, no communication skills. The fundamental things a prime minister should have, he hasn’t got any of them;” “His disdain for the British people is frightening”. At the same time, a few wondered whether another change at the top was the answer: “Part of the problem is that we’ve had leader after leader come in and they have a year or two years. We need to give them longer;” “It’s a ridiculous turnover rate with prime ministers and we need to put a stop to it.”
Some saw the prospect – or at least the chance – of improvements if Burnham were to become prime minister (and none doubted that this was both his intention and the likely outcome if he won the by-election). However, this was very rarely to do with policies or ideas – none had heard of “Manchesterism” or anything specific he proposed to do in Downing Street – but rather because of his character and personality: “I don’t think he’d take any messing. I think he’d stand his ground;” “I’m not interested in new policies and ideas. I want someone to stay the course and actually effect some change rather than being pushed out within a term.” Even so, there were some worries that Burnham and his supporters might take Labour further to the left: “He might be a great person to be the next prime minister but there’s so many people around him saying into his ear, ‘this is what we want’. I don’t really want Labour to go another step to the left. I just worry who he’s going to have around him if he becomes prime minister”.
Participants debated whether having Burnham as prime minister would be good for the local area: “I think it could be a massive benefit for the north in general. I think that could be a big positive for us. He’s tried to get closer links to other councils, like Liverpool, trying to have some common ground. If he can do those sort of things on a national basis, that could have some good benefits;” “If he was to get in here, it would be for the bigger picture. It’s not really about looking after the area, it will be for his next thing. It’s a stepping stone for him;” “Are the people in our area going to see him as a local MP, or is he just going to be the prime minister that turns up for his constituency meetings and gets other people to do his work for the area?”
Whether or not they thought Burnham could win the next election for Labour, they believed he had more chance of doing so than Starmer or any of the other potential candidates. Some doubted they would vote Labour again if Burnham were not the leader: “I just want to see steady, stable leadership that is in power for a good few years. And I think Andy Burnham is probably the most likely to be able to bring people to his side and stay in power;” “If it wasn’t for Andy Burnham, I would seriously consider not voting Labour. But I actually believe he would be really, really good for this country”.
A few had heard about Reform UK candidate Rob Kenyon and his controversial social media posts: “Is he the Carol Vorderman one? He was very rude to her when she was on Countdown. Apparently she has written to every female in Makerfield reminding them of that.” However, it was notable that those most familiar with the details were also the least attracted to Reform in the first place. Those considering the party more seriously had not heard about the issue or considered it a fairly minor point: “It’s just part of being a politician. There isn’t one that you could say ‘you’re a good, decent, clean politician. I certainly couldn’t name one;” “Nobody is going to be squeaky clean unless they don’t do social media. Yes, he’s made some comments, but over the next two weeks I’d like to see more of him and decide myself rather than what everyone else is saying about him.”
As elsewhere, many were attracted to Reform UK by their stance on issues including immigration, tax, crime and net zero, as well as their general outspoken approach: “My community where I live has changed so much, it’s frightening. And I just feel that if I vote Labour, nothing will change. I just want to see something a little bit different;” “There are radical ideas, but they are actually talking to the people and telling you what their policies are. With Labour it’s ‘well we’ve got some policies, but we might water them down and we’re not really sure. We don’t know where it’s leading to;” “I just feel that with the way the country is right now, it needs a complete and utter overhaul. I feel they will get in at the next election whether Andy Burnham gets in or not.”
A handful of participants had heard of Restore Britain, but only one was interested so far: “They do sound good. They’re very down to earth. They don’t like masses of people coming in unvetted.” Others who had heard about them considered them on the extreme side: “I think he’s just a little bit radical in his ‘Britain first’ stuff. He thinks everybody gets what he’s saying, but I think he’s the wrong side of normal.” There was no interested in the Green Party, at least in this contest: “At this by-election, you’d just be throwing away your vote;” “Absolute fruit loops. Two of them knocked on my door with green hair, piercings, multi-coloured flags all over them, and I just looked at them and said ‘there’s more chance of Accrington Stanley winning the treble than me voting for you’.”
For those torn between Labour and Reform, the decision often came down to the most effective way of achieving change, and how soon it could take effect: “If we go for the Reform candidate, we’re just getting another Reform MP into parliament, which isn’t going to make any difference really. But if we vote for Andy Burnham, are we basically saying, do we want Andy Burnham as leader? It’s like two questions really;” “Do I want a full change, or am I believing in Labour to have a different leader and then become better? But if you go for Reform and Nigel, then it’s starting again. And we’ve got to go through another couple of years first;” “My way of thinking is that if Burnham loses, Labour wouldn’t last for four years, and there would be another national vote and things would change then. But if Burnham gets in, if he can start from day one;” “Getting Reform in would make zero difference. But Andy Burnham getting in means a big shake-up in the Labour party. And personally, I would much rather see that than just vote for Reform for the sake of not being happy with the Labour party. I would rather see them have the ability to make a positive change.”
This was also the case for those who had some sympathy for Starmer and had complained about prime ministerial turnover: “If they didn’t challenge his leadership, I would give him more time. But I’d rather Burnham;” “I would rather have someone stay for longer, but I don’t think Keir Starmer’s going to last anyway.”