Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary on 4 July, I polled 10,000 Americans to explore how they saw life in the US, their country and its place in the world, and what if anything the American Dream means to them today.
We asked our respondents how proud they were of the United States as it approaches its 250th anniversary, on a scale from zero to ten. Just under a quarter said they were extremely proud (10/10), while 5 per cent said they were not proud at all (0/10). Men were more likely to give a high score than women, and those aged 65 or over were more than twice as likely to do so as 18-24-year-olds, who were more likely to give a score of zero than ten. However, men in this age group were more than twice as likely as 18-24-year-old women to give a high score. Nearly three quarters of Republicans said they were very proud, compared to just over a third of Democrats. A majority of white Americans gave a high score, compared to just under a half of Hispanics and fewer than four in ten African Americans.
Most Americans say their country has mostly lived up to its founding ideals of liberty and opportunity for all or has made significant progress toward them. However, nearly four in ten say either that the US has fallen short of these ideals or that they were flawed from the beginning.
Again, there were wide differences of view between groups. Republican-identifying and Republican-leaning voters were more than three times as likely as Democrats to say America had lived up to its founding ideals, and older Americans were more likely to do so than their younger counterparts. Only 15 per cent of African Americans thought America had lived up to its ideals, compared to nearly a quarter of white respondents.
A majority of Americans, including majorities of all key groups, agreed that in important ways the US is different from any other country in the world. However, younger people and Democrats were much more closely divided on this question than older Americans and Republicans.
Only a minority of Americans agreed that the US is a force for good in the world. They were more likely to think that this had once been true but was no longer the case. Nearly one in ten – including more than one in five of those aged 18-24, said the country had never been a force for good. Republicans were the main exception, with more than two thirds believing the US was currently a force for good in the world.
Republicans were twice as likely as Democrats to believe that most people can have a better life in the US than anywhere else in the world. They were the only group among whom a majority thought this. Just over a quarter of Americans, including more than four in ten of those aged 18-24, said they thought there were many places where most people could have a better life than in the US.
Presented with a list of things that might be elements of the American Dream, respondents were most likely to choose personal freedom. Home ownership and a good wage were the next most likely to be chosen, followed by affordable healthcare, security in retirement and a good work-life balance.
The importance of various elements of the American Dream varied by politics. Personal freedom, home ownership, security in retirement, work-life balance and ability to bring up a family on one income were marginally more important to Republican-leaning voters, but the difference was not significant. Democrats, however, were more likely to choose affordable healthcare, environmental sustainability and a college degree without massive debt as important elements of the American Dream, and much more likely to choose greater racial equality.
Only just under a quarter said they believe the American Dream is alive and achievable for people like them. The biggest group – just under four in ten overall – said they thought it still exists but is harder to achieve than it used to be. Just under a quarter said it only exists for certain groups of people, while more than one in ten thought either that the American Dream was outdated and no longer relevant or that it never really existed in the first place. Once again, Republicans were more than twice as likely as Democrats to say the American Dream was alive and achievable, and the youngest respondents were the least likely to think this was the case.
Our political map shows how views of the American Dream are distributed throughout the population. As with pride in America, those who thought the dream is only real for certain groups of people, is outdated or never existed in the first place are most likely to be found in more diverse, Democrat-leaning urban centres.
More than seven in ten Americans in our survey said they owned their own home or expected to do so one day. This fell to 62 per cent among those aged 18-24, nearly a third of whom said this was something they desired but didn’t expect to achieve. Only just over half of 18-24s said they earned more than their parents or expected to do so, compared to more than two thirds of 35-44s and three quarters of those aged 65 and over.
Americans were slightly more likely to believe that the American Dream is about pulling yourself up by your bootstraps through individual effort than that it requires collective support systems and public investment to be achievable. However, Democrats, African Americans and respondents up to the age of 44 were more likely to think the latter was true.
Most Americans said that hard work and determination had been one of the most important factors in determining their opportunities in life. Natural talent and ability were next, followed by the quality of their education, luck and timing, connections and networking, and family support.
While many across the board mention hard work and determination, Republicans are slightly more likely to do so than Democrats. Republicans are also more inclined to think name natural talent and religious background as important factors in determining opportunity. Democrats were more likely than Republicans to name geographic location and access to health care, and much more likely to name government programmes, gender, and race or ethnicity.
Housing affordability was the biggest concern about the next generation’s ability to achieve the American Dream, with political division, and job security in an AI/automated economy in close competition for second place. Healthcare costs and wealth inequality were close behind. As with the American Dream’s essential elements, people’s worries about the future were related to their political outlook. Housing affordability, political division and the cost of education were mentioned across party lines, but loss of personal freedom and the mental health impact of social media were somewhat more likely to be mentioned by Republicans. Healthcare costs were slightly more likely, and wealth inequality and the impact of climate change much more likely, to be named by Democrats.
Across the board, Americans are more optimistic for their own future than for the future of the US. Overall, nearly two thirds said they were personally optimistic, while just under half said the same for the country as a whole. The youngest Americans were the least optimistic of any age group, both for themselves and for the US. African Americans were slightly more optimistic, on both counts, than white or Hispanic Americans.
Our analysis of the poll findings enables us to break the total 10,000 sample into six distinct groups or tribes, each with a particular combination of opinions or attitudes. Heartland Patriots are the strongest believers in the American Dream – the most likely to think it is alive and achievable for people like them. They are also the most likely to agree that America has mostly lived up to its founding ideals, and are by far the proudest of the US. Faithful Achievers think that America has made significant progress towards its founding ideals but still has work to do. Even so, a majority believe that the American Dream is alive and a realistic possibility for people like them. Grounded Realists are very positive about the American Dream, believing it gives hope to people struggling and is a major part of what makes the country special. However, they are the most likely to agree that the American Dream is harder to achieve than it used to be. Egalitarian Idealists are the most likely to think the American Dream has excluded many people in the past, and that collective support systems are needed to achieve it. They are the most likely to consider affordable healthcare, a college degree without massive debt, racial equality and environmental sustainability to be key components of the American Dream, and are the most worried about climate change impacts. Though they are generally pessimistic about the US, they are optimistic about their own future. Weary Survivors are the most likely to desire, but not expect to achieve, various American Dream milestones. They are the most likely to say that a good wage, being able to bring up a family on one income and good mental health are important to living out the American Dream, but are very pessimistic about the future of the US and their personal future. Disillusioned Sceptics are the most sceptical about the American Dream, being the most likely to believe it is outdated or that it never really existed, gives people false hope and has excluded many people in the past. They have by far the lowest levels of pride in the US today and are the most likely to say that America’s founding ideals were flawed from the beginning.
The full report, Who Still Believes in the American Dream? is available at LordAshcroftPolls.com together with full data tables
Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary on 4 July, I polled 10,000 Americans to explore how they saw life in the US, their country and its place in the world, and what if anything the American Dream means to them today.
We asked our respondents how proud they were of the United States as it approaches its 250th anniversary, on a scale from zero to ten. Just under a quarter said they were extremely proud (10/10), while 5 per cent said they were not proud at all (0/10). Men were more likely to give a high score than women, and those aged 65 or over were more than twice as likely to do so as 18-24-year-olds, who were more likely to give a score of zero than ten. However, men in this age group were more than twice as likely as 18-24-year-old women to give a high score. Nearly three quarters of Republicans said they were very proud, compared to just over a third of Democrats. A majority of white Americans gave a high score, compared to just under a half of Hispanics and fewer than four in ten African Americans.
Most Americans say their country has mostly lived up to its founding ideals of liberty and opportunity for all or has made significant progress toward them. However, nearly four in ten say either that the US has fallen short of these ideals or that they were flawed from the beginning.
Again, there were wide differences of view between groups. Republican-identifying and Republican-leaning voters were more than three times as likely as Democrats to say America had lived up to its founding ideals, and older Americans were more likely to do so than their younger counterparts. Only 15 per cent of African Americans thought America had lived up to its ideals, compared to nearly a quarter of white respondents.
A majority of Americans, including majorities of all key groups, agreed that in important ways the US is different from any other country in the world. However, younger people and Democrats were much more closely divided on this question than older Americans and Republicans.
Only a minority of Americans agreed that the US is a force for good in the world. They were more likely to think that this had once been true but was no longer the case. Nearly one in ten – including more than one in five of those aged 18-24, said the country had never been a force for good. Republicans were the main exception, with more than two thirds believing the US was currently a force for good in the world.
Republicans were twice as likely as Democrats to believe that most people can have a better life in the US than anywhere else in the world. They were the only group among whom a majority thought this. Just over a quarter of Americans, including more than four in ten of those aged 18-24, said they thought there were many places where most people could have a better life than in the US.
Presented with a list of things that might be elements of the American Dream, respondents were most likely to choose personal freedom. Home ownership and a good wage were the next most likely to be chosen, followed by affordable healthcare, security in retirement and a good work-life balance.
The importance of various elements of the American Dream varied by politics. Personal freedom, home ownership, security in retirement, work-life balance and ability to bring up a family on one income were marginally more important to Republican-leaning voters, but the difference was not significant. Democrats, however, were more likely to choose affordable healthcare, environmental sustainability and a college degree without massive debt as important elements of the American Dream, and much more likely to choose greater racial equality.
Only just under a quarter said they believe the American Dream is alive and achievable for people like them. The biggest group – just under four in ten overall – said they thought it still exists but is harder to achieve than it used to be. Just under a quarter said it only exists for certain groups of people, while more than one in ten thought either that the American Dream was outdated and no longer relevant or that it never really existed in the first place. Once again, Republicans were more than twice as likely as Democrats to say the American Dream was alive and achievable, and the youngest respondents were the least likely to think this was the case.
Our political map shows how views of the American Dream are distributed throughout the population. As with pride in America, those who thought the dream is only real for certain groups of people, is outdated or never existed in the first place are most likely to be found in more diverse, Democrat-leaning urban centres.
More than seven in ten Americans in our survey said they owned their own home or expected to do so one day. This fell to 62 per cent among those aged 18-24, nearly a third of whom said this was something they desired but didn’t expect to achieve. Only just over half of 18-24s said they earned more than their parents or expected to do so, compared to more than two thirds of 35-44s and three quarters of those aged 65 and over.
Americans were slightly more likely to believe that the American Dream is about pulling yourself up by your bootstraps through individual effort than that it requires collective support systems and public investment to be achievable. However, Democrats, African Americans and respondents up to the age of 44 were more likely to think the latter was true.
Most Americans said that hard work and determination had been one of the most important factors in determining their opportunities in life. Natural talent and ability were next, followed by the quality of their education, luck and timing, connections and networking, and family support.
While many across the board mention hard work and determination, Republicans are slightly more likely to do so than Democrats. Republicans are also more inclined to think name natural talent and religious background as important factors in determining opportunity. Democrats were more likely than Republicans to name geographic location and access to health care, and much more likely to name government programmes, gender, and race or ethnicity.
Housing affordability was the biggest concern about the next generation’s ability to achieve the American Dream, with political division, and job security in an AI/automated economy in close competition for second place. Healthcare costs and wealth inequality were close behind. As with the American Dream’s essential elements, people’s worries about the future were related to their political outlook. Housing affordability, political division and the cost of education were mentioned across party lines, but loss of personal freedom and the mental health impact of social media were somewhat more likely to be mentioned by Republicans. Healthcare costs were slightly more likely, and wealth inequality and the impact of climate change much more likely, to be named by Democrats.
Across the board, Americans are more optimistic for their own future than for the future of the US. Overall, nearly two thirds said they were personally optimistic, while just under half said the same for the country as a whole. The youngest Americans were the least optimistic of any age group, both for themselves and for the US. African Americans were slightly more optimistic, on both counts, than white or Hispanic Americans.
Our analysis of the poll findings enables us to break the total 10,000 sample into six distinct groups or tribes, each with a particular combination of opinions or attitudes. Heartland Patriots are the strongest believers in the American Dream – the most likely to think it is alive and achievable for people like them. They are also the most likely to agree that America has mostly lived up to its founding ideals, and are by far the proudest of the US. Faithful Achievers think that America has made significant progress towards its founding ideals but still has work to do. Even so, a majority believe that the American Dream is alive and a realistic possibility for people like them. Grounded Realists are very positive about the American Dream, believing it gives hope to people struggling and is a major part of what makes the country special. However, they are the most likely to agree that the American Dream is harder to achieve than it used to be. Egalitarian Idealists are the most likely to think the American Dream has excluded many people in the past, and that collective support systems are needed to achieve it. They are the most likely to consider affordable healthcare, a college degree without massive debt, racial equality and environmental sustainability to be key components of the American Dream, and are the most worried about climate change impacts. Though they are generally pessimistic about the US, they are optimistic about their own future. Weary Survivors are the most likely to desire, but not expect to achieve, various American Dream milestones. They are the most likely to say that a good wage, being able to bring up a family on one income and good mental health are important to living out the American Dream, but are very pessimistic about the future of the US and their personal future. Disillusioned Sceptics are the most sceptical about the American Dream, being the most likely to believe it is outdated or that it never really existed, gives people false hope and has excluded many people in the past. They have by far the lowest levels of pride in the US today and are the most likely to say that America’s founding ideals were flawed from the beginning.
The full report, Who Still Believes in the American Dream? is available at LordAshcroftPolls.com together with full data tables