Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
My latest focus groups took place in Plymouth, Exeter, Mansfield and Rushcliffe, where voters from a range of political backgrounds reflected on Keir Starmer’s resignation, the ascent of Andy Burnham, and whether any of it would make any difference.
Most in our groups agreed that Starmer had to go, even if they had some sympathy with him or he could achieve results given more time. For them, the loss of confidence within the Labour party and in the country more widely made his departure inevitable: “I’m not anti-Starmer. I think if he had long enough, potentially he would do something. But I’ve just lost confidence in him;” “He was arrogant enough to try and hang on. But the majority was so overwhelming he had to fall on his sword;” “I thought, that’s really sad. I felt they’d kind of railroaded him out. But there was no way he could have stayed;” “It’s not ideal because it just looks like an unstable country yet again. But it would have dragged on for ages.”
“He didn’t look at anything from the common man’s perspective”
Asked to sum up Starmer’s political epitaph, a few found positive things to say: “He delivered on smart phones and that with the 16-year-olds. That’s the only thing I’ve agreed with him on massively;” “I was quite glad he didn’t pull us into the war with Trump. There was a lot of pressure to join forces, and it was good to see that he didn’t do that;” “I’m an ex-miner and I got a massive increase in my pension.” Several thought he was simply unsuited to the job: “At first, I thought he came across as quite trustworthy, quiet steadfast. But a manager, not a leader, probably in hindsight. You just want somebody to steer the ship;” “A decent man who didn’t have a firm steer on his party or the cabinet”.
However, many were much less forgiving: “The worst prime minister in history;” “Tone deaf;” “Constant U-turns;” “Threw the English working person down the drain. People like us who work and want to better ourselves and better our families;” “He seemed to say, ‘I don’t know’ a lot or ‘I wasn’t there’. Well, you do know or you should know;” “He didn’t have his feet on the ground. He didn’t look at anything from the common man’s perspective. He was a bit arrogant;” “All his life he’s backed the wrong people and defended the wrong people”.
“He just wants to take from us and give to Sue down the road who’s literally never worked and claims every benefit going”
While the groups agreed that Starmer was not very good at being prime minister, most thought this was not the main reason for his failure. More important was that he made the wrong decisions and had the wrong priorities – especially seeming to favour benefit claimants over working people: “He was looking after the wrong people. We both work full time; we’ve got two kids. He doesn’t care about us. He just wants to take from us and give to Sue down the road who’s literally never worked and claims every benefit going;” “People are so crushed by every single bill increasing and not having a good quality or enjoyment of life. And hearing reports that they’re spending more on benefits than they’re bringing in from income tax. It’s just going in the wrong direction;” “There are stupid things, like getting the oil from Norway but not going into our own. They’re wasting money when they need to be more sensible with it;” “He was the one that came out with the manifesto, so he set the bar. If you’re not then matching the expectations of your voters, what’s going to happen?”
Accordingly, beyond the presentational and leadership aspects of the job, a new prime minister would not in itself bring about much improvement: “Anyone who’s got a little bit of stage presence and a bit of commitment and integrity will do better than Starmer;” “The country’s been on its knees for years. We’re bringing more people in with no facilities or infrastructure anywhere. Schools are full, you can’t get a doctor’s appointment or go to the dentist. Nothing’s changing;” “I feel sorry for whoever’s going to take it on because they’ve got half a term to put it right and they’re picking up a hospital pass to start with;” “It’s going to hell in a handcart and nobody has a plan to fix it, to stop our bills going up. I just don’t see how it’s sustainable”.
“I think there’s going to be a riot”
In fact, participants saw plenty of potential for things to get even worse. They were well aware of the state of the public finances and could see the potential consequences for their own lives: “We’re paying into pensions, we’re really trying our best to secure our life. And I really worry that when we get to retirement age, there’s going to be nothing there for us. They’re going to have ripped us apart;” “I’ll be working till I’m dead;” “They never increase that tax allowance, so you’ve got that middle squeeze. They say they’ve not raised taxes but it’s like a secret tax, and it has a massive impact”. Participants spoke about the cost of living, rising local crime, deteriorating public services, social division and international disorder. Several said they were worried about the prospect of domestic civil unrest: “I think there’s going to be a riot. There’s going to be English people out on the street and it’s going to be a Mad Max society. It’s going to be wild.”
“I don’t know anything, his career, his background. I thought, who is this person?”
Apart from being the Manchester mayor, most of our groups said they knew very little about Andy Burnham. Some knew the occasional fact – he was the MP for Leigh, went to Cambridge, supports Everton, had once been the health secretary, had lost previous leadership elections – but none had much sense of who he was, still less what he wanted to do: “I don’t know anything, his career, his background. I thought, who is this person?” Most were baffled as to why the Labour party seemed to regard him as their great hope, except that he was less tainted with recent failures: “He’s had ten years out so he can’t really be linked to Corbyn or Starmer;” “He’s just using the fact that he’s northern. ‘I’m not a southerner, I’m a northerner’. I think he’s just literally just leveraging that;” “What does it say about the Labour party that they’ve got a majority in parliament and the only potential leader is someone who didn’t even have a seat?”
A few participants had picked up on Burnham’s comments about opening an outpost of Westminster in Manchester: “With this idea of a new Number 10 based in the north, thinking about Number 10 as a historical monument, I feel a little bit of Trump energy from him in the way he might want to rearrange things, break a few things to get change.” However, in the absence of any distinctive outlook or plan, however, several said that in political terms they saw Burnham and Starmer as “two cheeks of the same arse”.
“He doesn’t come across as a ditherer like the other one”
Some thought Burnham would bring a change of style compared to Starmer. While this was welcome, it would not in itself be enough to tackle Britain’s problems: “He doesn’t come across as a ditherer like that other one;” “I can see him not lying to me. Just laying it on the table and saying ‘look, this is what it is.’ I wouldn’t see that from Starmer;” “I sense he might have a bit more personality about him, but that’s about it;” “It will be exactly the same. He’s got the same glasses and he’ll just be a younger version;” “I don’t think it will make much difference. It’s going downhill and I don’t think one person can change that. We need to think drastically about how we’re doing things and what we want the future to look like.” If there was a drastic change of direction – especially of the kind that pleased his supporters inside Labour – it would not be the platform on which Labour was elected in 2024: “Someone like Andy Burnham coming in has energised the parliamentary Labour party. I think they’ll go along with some of what he wants to achieve. But it’s not the mandate and the manifesto they promised two years ago”.
“It feels like a very closed culture… We have no say in any of it”
This realisation underlined participants’ realisation that they would have no say in the change of prime minister and would probably not have the chance to judge his performance for some time. A few said they would like to see a contested leadership election so that Burnham would have to lay out his policies, but this would still leave many feeling excluded from the process: “I find it very odd that there is this MP who suddenly out of the goodness of his heart says ‘OK, I’ll stand aside and have a by-election’, and here comes Andy Burnham and next week he’s prime minister;” “It feels like a very closed culture and they’re all dealing with it and we have no say in any of it. They’re just like, right, you just sit there, we’ll sort you out. They’re organising and we can’t do anything about it;” “How can you get from not even being an MP to being prime minister?” “It’s not like we get to decide; the party get to decide”.
Some said they would rather see a swift handover of power and a general election if the new government wanted to move significantly away from the 2024 manifesto: “I’d rather a seamless takeover for Burnham. Then the issue becomes does he agree with the manifesto? Is he going to stick with that? And if not, we have to call a general election if he wants to change.” Some also argued that an election would help to diffuse public discontent, which would only grow if people were not allowed their say. However, few expected a general election to happen any time soon: “If they call it at the minute, they ain’t winning. So they’re not going to call one. I think it will come earlier, but it won’t come straight away”.
“They wouldn’t put the England flag up”
Finally, if Labour held a World Cup watch party, what would it be like? “Orange squash. Non-alcoholic beer;” “They’d keep changing venues because they couldn’t make up their minds;” “It wouldn’t be a working man’s club;” “The food would be quite bland. Hummus. Nothing with any flavour.” Who would they be cheering for? “Scotland;” “Ghana;” “Congo;” “They wouldn’t put the England flag up”.
What about the Conservatives’ World Cup party? “It would be on the lawn in Henley;” “The Ritz or somewhere;” “The football is on in the background but they’re actually watching the tennis. Or the golf;” “They’re not watching, they’re too busy networking;” “Prosecco and cucumber sandwiches. They’re talking about polo”. How about Reform UK? “It would be on the White House lawn with Donald. They’re all cheering for America;” “A proper stinking pub. The Dog and Duck. Faces painted with England flags;” “No, I think it would be a private members’ club. The most expensive champagne but a Union Jack tablecloth;” “They’d be cheering for the whitest team. Sweden or someone”.
Would there be a Green World Cup party? “It would be like a festival. They’d all have purple hair and identify as trees;” “They’re cycling round the park to get the TV going;” “They’d cheer for everyone, because everyone’s a winner in the Green Party. You get a medal for taking part”.
Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
My latest focus groups took place in Plymouth, Exeter, Mansfield and Rushcliffe, where voters from a range of political backgrounds reflected on Keir Starmer’s resignation, the ascent of Andy Burnham, and whether any of it would make any difference.
Most in our groups agreed that Starmer had to go, even if they had some sympathy with him or he could achieve results given more time. For them, the loss of confidence within the Labour party and in the country more widely made his departure inevitable: “I’m not anti-Starmer. I think if he had long enough, potentially he would do something. But I’ve just lost confidence in him;” “He was arrogant enough to try and hang on. But the majority was so overwhelming he had to fall on his sword;” “I thought, that’s really sad. I felt they’d kind of railroaded him out. But there was no way he could have stayed;” “It’s not ideal because it just looks like an unstable country yet again. But it would have dragged on for ages.”
“He didn’t look at anything from the common man’s perspective”
Asked to sum up Starmer’s political epitaph, a few found positive things to say: “He delivered on smart phones and that with the 16-year-olds. That’s the only thing I’ve agreed with him on massively;” “I was quite glad he didn’t pull us into the war with Trump. There was a lot of pressure to join forces, and it was good to see that he didn’t do that;” “I’m an ex-miner and I got a massive increase in my pension.” Several thought he was simply unsuited to the job: “At first, I thought he came across as quite trustworthy, quiet steadfast. But a manager, not a leader, probably in hindsight. You just want somebody to steer the ship;” “A decent man who didn’t have a firm steer on his party or the cabinet”.
However, many were much less forgiving: “The worst prime minister in history;” “Tone deaf;” “Constant U-turns;” “Threw the English working person down the drain. People like us who work and want to better ourselves and better our families;” “He seemed to say, ‘I don’t know’ a lot or ‘I wasn’t there’. Well, you do know or you should know;” “He didn’t have his feet on the ground. He didn’t look at anything from the common man’s perspective. He was a bit arrogant;” “All his life he’s backed the wrong people and defended the wrong people”.
“He just wants to take from us and give to Sue down the road who’s literally never worked and claims every benefit going”
While the groups agreed that Starmer was not very good at being prime minister, most thought this was not the main reason for his failure. More important was that he made the wrong decisions and had the wrong priorities – especially seeming to favour benefit claimants over working people: “He was looking after the wrong people. We both work full time; we’ve got two kids. He doesn’t care about us. He just wants to take from us and give to Sue down the road who’s literally never worked and claims every benefit going;” “People are so crushed by every single bill increasing and not having a good quality or enjoyment of life. And hearing reports that they’re spending more on benefits than they’re bringing in from income tax. It’s just going in the wrong direction;” “There are stupid things, like getting the oil from Norway but not going into our own. They’re wasting money when they need to be more sensible with it;” “He was the one that came out with the manifesto, so he set the bar. If you’re not then matching the expectations of your voters, what’s going to happen?”
Accordingly, beyond the presentational and leadership aspects of the job, a new prime minister would not in itself bring about much improvement: “Anyone who’s got a little bit of stage presence and a bit of commitment and integrity will do better than Starmer;” “The country’s been on its knees for years. We’re bringing more people in with no facilities or infrastructure anywhere. Schools are full, you can’t get a doctor’s appointment or go to the dentist. Nothing’s changing;” “I feel sorry for whoever’s going to take it on because they’ve got half a term to put it right and they’re picking up a hospital pass to start with;” “It’s going to hell in a handcart and nobody has a plan to fix it, to stop our bills going up. I just don’t see how it’s sustainable”.
“I think there’s going to be a riot”
In fact, participants saw plenty of potential for things to get even worse. They were well aware of the state of the public finances and could see the potential consequences for their own lives: “We’re paying into pensions, we’re really trying our best to secure our life. And I really worry that when we get to retirement age, there’s going to be nothing there for us. They’re going to have ripped us apart;” “I’ll be working till I’m dead;” “They never increase that tax allowance, so you’ve got that middle squeeze. They say they’ve not raised taxes but it’s like a secret tax, and it has a massive impact”. Participants spoke about the cost of living, rising local crime, deteriorating public services, social division and international disorder. Several said they were worried about the prospect of domestic civil unrest: “I think there’s going to be a riot. There’s going to be English people out on the street and it’s going to be a Mad Max society. It’s going to be wild.”
“I don’t know anything, his career, his background. I thought, who is this person?”
Apart from being the Manchester mayor, most of our groups said they knew very little about Andy Burnham. Some knew the occasional fact – he was the MP for Leigh, went to Cambridge, supports Everton, had once been the health secretary, had lost previous leadership elections – but none had much sense of who he was, still less what he wanted to do: “I don’t know anything, his career, his background. I thought, who is this person?” Most were baffled as to why the Labour party seemed to regard him as their great hope, except that he was less tainted with recent failures: “He’s had ten years out so he can’t really be linked to Corbyn or Starmer;” “He’s just using the fact that he’s northern. ‘I’m not a southerner, I’m a northerner’. I think he’s just literally just leveraging that;” “What does it say about the Labour party that they’ve got a majority in parliament and the only potential leader is someone who didn’t even have a seat?”
A few participants had picked up on Burnham’s comments about opening an outpost of Westminster in Manchester: “With this idea of a new Number 10 based in the north, thinking about Number 10 as a historical monument, I feel a little bit of Trump energy from him in the way he might want to rearrange things, break a few things to get change.” However, in the absence of any distinctive outlook or plan, however, several said that in political terms they saw Burnham and Starmer as “two cheeks of the same arse”.
“He doesn’t come across as a ditherer like the other one”
Some thought Burnham would bring a change of style compared to Starmer. While this was welcome, it would not in itself be enough to tackle Britain’s problems: “He doesn’t come across as a ditherer like that other one;” “I can see him not lying to me. Just laying it on the table and saying ‘look, this is what it is.’ I wouldn’t see that from Starmer;” “I sense he might have a bit more personality about him, but that’s about it;” “It will be exactly the same. He’s got the same glasses and he’ll just be a younger version;” “I don’t think it will make much difference. It’s going downhill and I don’t think one person can change that. We need to think drastically about how we’re doing things and what we want the future to look like.” If there was a drastic change of direction – especially of the kind that pleased his supporters inside Labour – it would not be the platform on which Labour was elected in 2024: “Someone like Andy Burnham coming in has energised the parliamentary Labour party. I think they’ll go along with some of what he wants to achieve. But it’s not the mandate and the manifesto they promised two years ago”.
“It feels like a very closed culture… We have no say in any of it”
This realisation underlined participants’ realisation that they would have no say in the change of prime minister and would probably not have the chance to judge his performance for some time. A few said they would like to see a contested leadership election so that Burnham would have to lay out his policies, but this would still leave many feeling excluded from the process: “I find it very odd that there is this MP who suddenly out of the goodness of his heart says ‘OK, I’ll stand aside and have a by-election’, and here comes Andy Burnham and next week he’s prime minister;” “It feels like a very closed culture and they’re all dealing with it and we have no say in any of it. They’re just like, right, you just sit there, we’ll sort you out. They’re organising and we can’t do anything about it;” “How can you get from not even being an MP to being prime minister?” “It’s not like we get to decide; the party get to decide”.
Some said they would rather see a swift handover of power and a general election if the new government wanted to move significantly away from the 2024 manifesto: “I’d rather a seamless takeover for Burnham. Then the issue becomes does he agree with the manifesto? Is he going to stick with that? And if not, we have to call a general election if he wants to change.” Some also argued that an election would help to diffuse public discontent, which would only grow if people were not allowed their say. However, few expected a general election to happen any time soon: “If they call it at the minute, they ain’t winning. So they’re not going to call one. I think it will come earlier, but it won’t come straight away”.
“They wouldn’t put the England flag up”
Finally, if Labour held a World Cup watch party, what would it be like? “Orange squash. Non-alcoholic beer;” “They’d keep changing venues because they couldn’t make up their minds;” “It wouldn’t be a working man’s club;” “The food would be quite bland. Hummus. Nothing with any flavour.” Who would they be cheering for? “Scotland;” “Ghana;” “Congo;” “They wouldn’t put the England flag up”.
What about the Conservatives’ World Cup party? “It would be on the lawn in Henley;” “The Ritz or somewhere;” “The football is on in the background but they’re actually watching the tennis. Or the golf;” “They’re not watching, they’re too busy networking;” “Prosecco and cucumber sandwiches. They’re talking about polo”. How about Reform UK? “It would be on the White House lawn with Donald. They’re all cheering for America;” “A proper stinking pub. The Dog and Duck. Faces painted with England flags;” “No, I think it would be a private members’ club. The most expensive champagne but a Union Jack tablecloth;” “They’d be cheering for the whitest team. Sweden or someone”.
Would there be a Green World Cup party? “It would be like a festival. They’d all have purple hair and identify as trees;” “They’re cycling round the park to get the TV going;” “They’d cheer for everyone, because everyone’s a winner in the Green Party. You get a medal for taking part”.