As is almost always the case, I was, yet again, proven right.
In all honesty, it’s fast becoming a trend that I am growing tired of. Repeatedly, I have to shoehorn ‘I told you so’ into conversations at the pub. Sorry chaps, but I really don’t give two craps about how hard your day was at work, or how you constantly argue with your significant other; your irrelevant, imbecilic concerns are of no significance to me and my colossal intellect whatsoever.
I am, of course, referring to whether Nigel Farage actually wants to win a General Election, and whether he really wants to be Prime Minister. I have long been sceptical of the idea.
As I wrote just last week, he fulfills the role of the Court jester, dazzling onlookers with glitz and glamour whilst falling short of the seriousness needed to sit on the throne. He can rally a great mass of people, riling them up to the point that they take his word as gospel, but he cannot govern. He can’t do the boring bits, nor can he properly delve into the nitty-gritty details of public policy. That’s just not Nigel’s style.
For some time, then, it has been a very reasonable question to ask of Farage and his party. As they continued to provide simple, rolls-off-the-tongue solutions to complex problems, alarm bells began to sound for a number of Brits. Perhaps it’s all for show. Perhaps he would rather ply his trade in the TV business. Perhaps this is the final straw.
But, over the last few days, this question has finally been put to rest. No longer must we group such a question alongside such philosophical giants as ‘What is the meaning of life?’ and ‘Did she ever love me?’. No, for what Reform have demonstrated, loud and clear, as of late is an unwillingness to want to govern.
Take Robert Jenrick’s reaction to the treatment of a heckler during Farage’s speech at Reform Conference, as an example. Rather than showcase any degree of empathy towards the protestor, Ozempic’s poster boy seemed instead to condone the crowd’s actions, uttering the words “oh boohoo” and arguing that the woman in question should “get a life.” Reform went so far as to create an edit of the clip, with Farage’s “boring, boring, boring” dubbed over the top. Such a clip has since been deleted, but it highlights a shift in strategy The party didn’t seem to care about how it looked to those who are undecided. They knew the base would love it and went with it anyhow.
It’s emblematic of a wider mindset change in Reform. No longer do they seem willing to even entertain the possibility of reaching across the political divide. No longer do they possess an appetite of wooing people over to their way of thinking. The millions of voters who were undecided about Reform, but who very likely could’ve been tempted, are no longer the party’s priority. The base is what matters, and those who fall outside it are electorally useless.
Polling released by Merlin Strategy just yesterday showcases this best. Reform is now the political party which most Brits would vote against, with the anti-Reform bloc growing ever stronger as more scandals are brought to light. Coupled with a CityAM x Freshwater Strategy poll which demonstrates that Reform is beginning to consolidate around an ever-shrinking base of support, and it quickly becomes clear that Farage and his team have waved goodbye to the prospect of a majority government with greater than 30 per cent of the vote.
On the surface, this may seem like a foolish endeavour. If the point of politics is to one day get into power and change things, why would you opt for a strategy that turns people away from your tribe?
The answer, I think, lies in the purpose of Reform – for they are most effective when they are in opposition. Their identity is strongest when they demonstrate what they are against, rather than what they are for. There’s no real political philosophy underpinning them – there’s no list of party grandees from days gone by which they can point to nor a consistent philosophical root with which they can trace themselves. Their creation was fuelled because of the failure of the Tories and Labour. They are effectively a protest vote against the status-quo that is having to transition into a political force with a backbone.
And as a result of this, Reform are in a rather strong position, for they are not hamstrung by the need to be moderate. Their only focus now is on the need to mobilise their base. It helps explain why figures like that ZIa Yusuf – Lord save us – are still given positions of prominence.
By remaining in a state of perpetual opposition, the party is free to enjoy itself. To quote The Thick of It, opposition allows a party to peddle “free-range, no-consequence bullshit” at will. For as long as Reform are not in government, they can whip up stories about how the Royal Navy will be sent into the English Channel, or how they will grant immunity to perpetrators of war crimes, all because they will never need to put their plans into action. It’s a bit like being a Lib Dem.
Maintaining an image of an opposition force also means that Reform will never have to point the finger of blame at themselves. It will always be someone else’s fault as long as they’re not in power. This is crucial to their operation. If the guise breaks and they are shown to be no different than the Tories and Labour, then what is their purpose? It’s an incredibly fragile operation which rests on the fact that the party is not, if you like, found out.
Much to the dismay of self-serving careerists such as Jenrick, then, it looks as though Reform have recognised this reality. It’s all rather ironic, given that throughout their conference last week, Farage and others pushed the idea of what Reform would do in its first 100 days. They signed cute resignation letters for pretend jobs they didn’t have, all in the hopes of putting on a serious face to the British public.
And yet, in the immediate aftermath of the conference, they appear to have changed tack. The scandal over their donations has punctured a hole in their macho, government-in-waiting image, and in doing so, those at the top have realised the need to change their approach. No longer can they be a movement which brings people on side, instead they must limit themselves to a sub-section of the electorate who are loyal to the brand and Farage above all else.
I have no doubt that such voters will turnout for Farage. It matters not what scandals Reform are embroiled in, for these voters just want something, anything different. But the voters who continue to um and ah about the party will have almost certainly been turned off for good, and Farage has almost certainly realised that it will prove an immense challenge to win them back.
In turning his back on the voters that could decide whether he gets into Downing Street, Farage is distancing himself from the realities of governance. Because a governing party has to take responsibility for their actions and, if we are to be frank, disappoint a lot of people. If Farage finds himself in Number 10, the finger of blame must be directed inwards.
Suddenly, the arrival of small boats is happening under a Reform government. Bills are going up under a Reform government. The housing crisis is getting worse under a Reform government. The buck stops there. A Prime Minister cannot throw their allies under the bus indefinitely, nor can they pretend they weren’t listening at the time.
Farage would have to turn around to the British public and say that he was wrong about the scale of challenge. He would have to admit that he would need to scale back a number of promises. That, I think, is one of his biggest fears – the fear of being found out.
That, above all else, underpins Reform’s change in strategy. They don’t need to persuade the masses that they are able to govern, they need only persuade enough of the country that everyone else has failed.