His Bill may be held up in the Lords as he continues to insists that his Government will stop the boats. The only means of squaring the two would be an election with illegal migration centre-stage.
Those who claim the Conservatives would benefit from a spell in opposition to ‘rest and detox’ are misguided. My first nine years in Parliament were spent in opposition, and it was a frustrating experience.
Even as it is, we have been fortunate riots that have proven a rarity. Cut 6.7 per cent a year from the budget and they become almost an inevitability.
Doing the minimum possible on legal migration would have the unwelcome effect for the Prime Minister of prolonging and intensifying debate about it.
The elements that came together to see a Conservative elected Mayor in 2008 – a national mood turning against Labour, a near-celebrity candidate in the as-yet-untarnished form of Boris Johnson, and a radical and increasingly unpopular incumbent – are not currently at hand.
Monday’s speech and today’s announcement show them choosing their ground for the next election. And since Hunt may find no money for further tax cuts next spring, the option of a May general election is opening up.
The issue of immigration is now fully back at the centre of our national life and will exert a profound influence on the outcome of the rapidly approaching general election next year.
The rage, frustration and contempt of its terms are a foretaste of what’s to come if the Conservatives lose the next election.
There is also a moral point: if someone works, they should be the main beneficiary of their labour, rather than being forced to give most of their extra earnings to the Government.
This reflects a sense on much of the right that the country is part of the Western project, as well as a reaction against political Islam.
It’s past time that mainstream Tory politicians recognised these realities and engaged with it as an opportunity rather than as the broadcasting equivalent of a leper colony.
Sir Keir’s choice is between not sacking front bench dissenters, so inviting claims of weakness, and doing so – thus provoking accusations of over-reacting.
if you look at the odds for the next Conservative leader, there are no white men among the front runners. The top five comprise Kemi Badenoch, Penny Mordaunt, James Cleverly, Suella Braverman and Gillian Keegan.
Our research found that voters who account for Labour’s poll surge are more likely to say the recent announcement on diesel and petrol cars has made them less likely to return to the Conservatives.
What Sir Keir and Labour MPs say in the Commons is worth keeping an eye on.