Rishi Sunak’s D-Day disaster dominated commentary almost immediately, but it wasn’t until after the weekend that it filtered out to the voters.
Last year, an embattled prime minister well behind in the polls called a snap election in the wake of a “crippling” rout in Spanish town halls. It worked.
If they are to stop Labour sweeping to victory, they not only need to bring back in even more “don’t knows” than models suggest they currently will, but also win back a large number of voters who have abandoned the party.
The panel agreed the Conference is unlikely to change public opinion, and Afolami described the approach taken a year ago by the Truss Government as “bananas”.
YouGov research has revealed an important section of the electorate that Tory strategists would do well to target ahead of 2024.
Together with other recent by-elections, it is broadly in that electoral territory – but it is also consistent with a least one recent survey suggesting a wipeout for the Conservatives.
Amidst generally woeful scores, the Conservatives still lead on terrorism and defence, and run Labour close on law and order, asylum, and – still – the economy.