There’s a shift in the debate, for those in Reform and Conservatives, who are willing to have it. More are, and mercifully without the wearisome ‘screaming’ at each other that marked the start of hostilities. It’s not a deal, it might mark a ceasefire.
You may not like what Dubai has to offer, but don’t tarnish those who do with the brush of ‘tax exiles’ and ‘washed-up old footballers’. If we were able to attract their like and their ambition, instead of scaring them away, we would all feel the benefits.
“We have to step up and fast,” he says, as he urges the Government to increase spending on defence.
My latest focus groups took place in two constituencies in the west country: North East Somerset and Hanham, where we heard from 2024 Conservative switchers to Labour and Reform, and Taunton, where we spoke to Tories who went to the Liberal Democrats.
The prospect of a hung parliament invites hard questions which the Liberal Democrats have avoided for too long – and any answer will alienate some of their voters.
My focus groups this month took place in Ilford, Guildford, Bolton and Altrincham, with regular Labour voters, and Conservative switchers to the Lib Dems, Reform and Labour. We talked about the Budget, crime, prisoners, the Tory alternative and the BBC.
The mood of an increasingly angry electorate will be to throw Labour out. Yet, Lib Dem MPs are dependent on retaining tactical votes from Labour supporters. So the Lib Dems can’t deny that they would side with Labour in a hung Parliament.
The Liberal Democrat leader attacks Farage and calls on Starmer to intervene in dispute between BBC and US President.
The political ‘series’, like the TV version is not over yet, it has – bar the utter implosion of Labour – a few more fraught years to run. The ‘obvious’ winners now, need to stay the obvious winners for another three years, and ‘a week is a long time in politics’.
My latest poll looks at all these issues, plus whether the party leaders will still be in post this time next year.
Post Conference Badenoch’s survey numbers show she’s more secure as leader. She showed fire, and grit has framed her defence against Reform, is attacking Labour with both barrels and has laid out to the the public what she’d do instead. It’s not a bad way to exit the Conference season.
The territory of the traditional centre right is unoccupied and unthreatened by the other parties. The question remains, however, whether this is the space that the Conservative Party wants to occupy.
If Reform are serious about closing the deal with the British electorate, the wiser ones could do worse than heed the warning: there are British voters who might be tempted by Reform UK, who are not huge supporters of everything Trump says.
The Conservatives’ focus on Farage is letting the LibDems, with all their contradictions, incoherence and 72 MPs, off the hook.
We also ask how people would describe the party leaders and which parties they would want to see in coalition in the event of a hung parliament.