If Farage goes – and it remains an ‘if’ – the threat to the Conservative Party from its right will be diminished. It is a great opportunity but also creates a crucial strategic dilemma. The Conservatives can either attempt to fill the space Farage has left behind, or set out a platform with a broad appeal based on economic competence.
The party that has long proclaimed itself to be the champion of free speech has undergone something of a transformation. Morphed, it seems, into a slapdash politburo.
80 per cent of Conservative members think it’s right to hold new candidates to supporting the party policy on net-zero and the ECHR, and 73.4 per cent backed the decision not field a candidate in the upcoming Clacton by-election.
The party has the biggest pool of winnable voters in the country. And what it does with that comes down to one decision. Make an offer to all of those voters, or spend three years wrestling Nigel Farage for half of them.
His plan to stop the boats by sending the Royal Marines onto French beaches fell apart as soon as he had announced it.
The results in Manchester, and Rupert Lowe’s stunt, will be seized upon by many as proof that the right must unite, and that the Conservatives are dead. Both conclusions are wrong. Bowing to the demands of tacky populists would be the ultimate humiliation, and one by-election result in a Labour heartland should not dictate the Tories’ direction of travel.
All politicians like to be photographed at election time pulling a pint of beer, but the man who has stepped forward for the past 30 years as the true champion of the man in the pub is Nigel Farage.
Having gone through 6 prime ministers and 3 general elections, it would be foolish to deny that Brexit has had a lasting impact on Britain. Whether such an impact has been positive or negative is for the public to decide, but Lord Elliott most definitely believes that it has been a positive experience.
Despite policy disagreements, the Conservatives are fundamentally united by shared values – like one big family. Reform are like one big HMO – they don’t like each other and are united by grievance alone.
Political pundits and even conservative ones, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, believe they have found the remedy for the Conservative Party: working with Reform UK. From my political insight alone, I can assure you this remedy is more like fool’s gold.
The message that Badenoch must send is that she will put country before party, and principles before political point scoring. It is not a complicated formula, and it will draw a very important, and necessary dividing line between her and any who seek to claim the Right as their own.
We know now that the country got out of its 1970s malaise thanks to a government committed to fiscal discipline and a market economy. Were matters worse in the seventies compared to today? Yes. Will matters resolve themselves as positively? Not necessarily.
For all the hope of bringing renewed dynamism to the British economy, Reform UK will not have assembled a pro-growth electoral coalition. The country may well need a brave and radical government, but the populist right – including Reform UK – is not going to provide it.
My latest poll asks what people think of Reform’s plans on illegal migration, what is coming in the November Budget, whether Labour and Conservative defectors are coming back, what they think of flags, and how free they feel to express an opinion
Nigel Farage – thus answering my question – returns from Clacton politically stronger, and deserves credit, as a good populist, for reading his electorate correctly.